Tennessee vs. South Carolina: The match-up

Tennessee hosts South Carolina in the Vols’ SEC opener and Tennessee fans are out for blood. Neyland Stadium promises to be a raucous environment as the Vols are out for revenge in this one. Let’s jump in and see how the two squads match-up.

TENNESSEE PASSING GAME vs. SOUTH CAROLINA SECONDARY

TENNESSEE: Joe Milton looked like he might have been on his way to his most efficient start at Tennessee last Saturday before the wheels came off. Milton started the day 14-for-16, then proceeded to go through a 1-for-12 stretch (which may have been been at least partly a result of a tweaked knee). Both Bru McCoy (15 rec., 196 yards, 1 TD on the year) and Ramel Keyton (12 rec., team high 205 yards, 3 TDs) were a bit dinged up last week but position coach Kelsey Pope said this week that all of Tennessee’s receivers will be available. Squirrel White leads this unit with 17 catches. Dont’e Thornton has yet to really get going. Tennessee’s backs, led by Jaylen Wright (10 rec., 58 yards) are more involved in the passing game. McCallan Castles (5 rec., 89 yards, 1 TD) has shown he can be a weapon. The bottom line here is that Milton has to be accurate. He doesn’t have to be spectacular, but he’s got to make the short and intermediate throws to pick up first downs and keep the chains moving. Big plays would be great, and judging by what South Carolina has done, the opportunities will be there, but above all Milton has to be on target and on time on the easier throws, something he’s been inconsistent with.

SOUTH CAROLINA: The Gamecocks got absolutely lit up by Will Rogers and Mississippi’s passing attack last week. Rogers threw for 487 yard Bulldog wideout Lideatrick Griffin had seven catches for 256 yards. In short, South Carolina’s pass defense has been atrocious through the first third of the season. The Gamecocks rank dead last in the league in yards surrendered, giving up 317 yards per game through the air. That’s 37 more yards per game than any other defense. The 8.45 yards per attempt that opponents are averaging is the second worst number in the league. The Gamecocks have come up with four interceptions thus far, tempering some of those ugly numbers a bit. Some of the struggles can be explained by breaking in new starters at both the cornerback spots and the Gamecocks are working a rotation at nickel. The safety spots are in good hands with returning starters Nick Emmanwori and DQ Smith back after finishing first and second on the team in tackles last fall.

EDGE: TENNESSEE (I think)

TENNESSEE GROUND GAME vs. SOUTH CAROLINA FRONT SEVEN

TENNESSEE: The Vols are leading the SEC in rushing at 229.5 yards per game right now (no one else is even over 200), but I think we can all agree that’s a bit misleading. Tennessee has put up some big rushing numbers in its three non-conference games, but in its lone SEC test at Florida the Vols couldn’t run the football (106 yards, 29 att.). The longest run of the night in Gainesville went for 12 yards and Tennessee struggled in short yardage. The line is hoping for a boost with the return of Cooper Mays this week, but you have to wonder about his conditioning. The tailback room looks stronger than ever after Dylan Sampson popped loose for 139 yards and two touchdowns on just 11 carries last week. He’s capable of making explosive plays and needs to be a consistent part of the offense. Jaylen Wright has (312 yards, 6.9 ypc) has been consistent. Florida, for the most part, was able to bottle up the Vols’ ground game without committing safeties to the box. Tennessee can’t let a South Carolina team that struggles to defend the pass do the same.

SOUTH CAROLINA: The Gamecocks are giving up more yardage than any other defense in the SEC (435 yards per game), but that’s largely a result of their secondary. They’re not great against the run (117.5 ypg, 9th in the SEC), but it’s not the train wreck the pass defense has been. Georgia (44 att, 190 yards) had some success on the ground, but South Carolina hasn’t been just gashed by anyone yet and just held Mississippi St. to 32 yards on 23 carries. Veteran linebacker Deebo Samuels is active in the middle of the Gamecock’s 4-2-5 scheme and leads the team with 34 tackles. Sophomore TJ Sanders (6-foot-5, 298 pounds) is off to a strong start in the interior of the defensive line with three sacks and 5.0 TFLs. Senior defensive tackle Tonka Hemingway has played a lot of football in this league. The Gamecocks have not given up a rushing play of more than 29 yards in 137 attempts from their opponents. It’s not all the fault of the front seven to be sure, but South Carolina is struggling to get off the field, allowing opponents to convert 43% of their third downs.

EDGE: TENNESSEE

Spencer Rattler (Chris Gillespie/Gamecock Central)

TENNESSEE SECONDARY vs. SOUTH CAROLINA PASSING GAME

TENNESSEE: The challenge here is simple. Is this group up to containing Spencer Rattler? The last time Tennessee faced Rattler he threw for 438 yards and six touchdowns with no interceptions. Needless to say, the Vols will need to do better this time around. Tennessee’s numbers look fine. They’re 4th in the SEC giving up 194 yards per game in the air, which looks good. But they really haven’t been tested yet and another number doesn’t look as good, 68.5%. That’s the percentage of throws opposing quarterbacks are completing against Tennessee. But another positive number is 5.87, that’s the average yard per attempt for opposing quarterbacks, third best in the SEC. The Vols haven’t been tested the way they’re going to be tested on Saturday by a quarterback who can both plays down the field with his arm and also keep plays alive with his feet. The Vols have looked soft over the middle, and you can bet that’s an area that South Carolina will probe. Rattler will test the Vols all over the secondary, and will definitely include safety where despite experience, there are still some concerns.

SOUTH CAROLINA: I think most would agree that if South Carolina is going to pull the upset then Rattler is going to have to have a huge night. I think most would also agree that he’s capable, we all saw it not that long ago. Rattler has been outstanding thus far in 2023. He’s thrown for 1,242 yards and seven TDs with two interceptions while completing 74% of his throws. Making those stats more impressive is that he’s doing it behind the worst pass protection front in the SEC. South Carolina has given up an SEC high 17 sacks and Rattler has been pressured countless other occasions. It hasn’t mattered much, he’s more often than not been able to find a way. He and the offense get a boost from the return of slot receiver Ahmarean Brown (9 rec., 86 yards) from injury. There was some hope that wideout Juice Wells would return this week, but that doesn’t seem to be the case. There’s no doubt about who Rattler’s go-to-guy is. Xavier Leggette leads South Carolina with 27 catches for 556 yards and three TDs. Leggette leads all SEC receivers in yards and qualifying players in yards per reception. It would stand to reason that he’ll be getting some extra attention from Tennessee on Saturday. That’s a big reason that the Vols need to show that they can get home with four against what’s been a bad Gamecock offensive line.

EDGE: SOUTH CAROLINA

TENNESSEE FRONT SEVEN vs. SOUTH CAROLINA GROUND GAME

TENNESSEE: The Vols’ front seven has largely looked solid outside of three quarters; the first half at Florida and the third quarter against Austin Peay. Florida had 135 yards rushing in the and Austin Peay scored back-to-back touchdowns. They can’t afford a lapse this week against a South Carolina offense that can get hot. Admittedly, not a lot of that heat has come from the ground game, but Tennessee can’t give them anything cheap. Elijah Herring, who made his first career start at Florida, will be under a microscope here as it’s a given South Carolina will try to take advantage of his inexperience. The same goes for Arion Carter when he’s on the field. Omari Thomas is turning into a consistent and disruptive force in the interior. Tyler Baron, with a team high four sacks, is playing the best football of his career and it’s not close. He and James Pearce (three sacks) could wind up as heroes if they can take advantage of what’s been a porous offensive front.

SOUTH CAROLINA: The Gamecocks have been the worst rushing team in the SEC by a wide margin this fall, averaging just 75.8 yards per game on the ground. Now, some of that is a result of the lost yardage from 17 sacks, but the bottom line is the offensive front has not been good. Even if you take out the 105 total yards lost from sacks in four games, South Carolina would still have the fewest rushing yards in the league. The Gamecocks don’t have a regular member of the running back rotation averaging even four yards per carry. Mario Anderson (34 carries, 109 yards, 3.8 ypc) has been South Carolina’s most productive back. The lack of any real production is one reason that South Carolina has faced 55 third downs in four games, more than anyone in the league other than Vanderbilt. The lack of any real ground game and the poor pass protection really highlights the job that Rattler has been doing. It’s imperative that Tennessee put it all on his shoulders on Saturday by bottling up that struggling ground game and taking advantage of a bad offensive front in obvious passing situations.

EDGE: TENNESSEE

SPECIAL TEAMS

TENNESSEE: Jackson Ross has gotten steadily better since a shaky start and is now averaging 41.0 yards per punt. The Vols also got their hands on a punt last week, so maybe that gives South Carolina something to think about. Charles Campbell has been solid, making 5-of-6 field goal attempts with lone miss coming from 52 yards. Dee Williams is simply one of the most dangerous returners in the country. He’s averaging 21.8 yards per punt return and it will be surprising if South Carolina gives him a chance. Tennessee’s coverage units have been sound with a long opponent punt return of six yards and a 21 yard kickoff return.

SOUTH CAROLINA: ‘Beamer ball’ hasn’t resulted in any blocked kicks or huge plays in the return game, but we should probably all keep our eyes peeled and hope the chain gang has hot dogs. Punter Kai Kroger has been very good, averaging 45.0 yards per attempt. Kicker Mitch Jeter (2-of-3 on FGs) hasn’t gotten many chances and hasn’t mad an attempt from outside of 35 yards. The Gamecocks have only attempted to return three punts this season, with no real success. Leggette is a threat as a kickoff returner, but hasn’t shaken loose with one yet this year.

EDGE: TENNESSEE

ONE MAN’S FEARLESS PREDICTION

Tennessee fans are going to be out for blood on Saturday night and Neyland is going to be rocking the way that few venues in the sport are capable of.

Now, it’s going to be up to Josh Heupel’s team to take advantage of what should be a fabulous environment.

Can they do it? Vegas certainly seems to think they can, installing the Vols as a nearly two touchdown favorite.

Many Tennessee fans are squeamish about that number for one simple fact, it’s been less than a year since what looked like a mediocre South Carolina football team trounced 8-1 Tennessee 63-38 behind a mind blowing game from Rattler.

There are some familiar faces in the Tennessee secondary that had a large hand in Rattler’s 2022 heroics. Simply put, can the Vols contain Rattler and the South Carolina passing game? And by ‘contain’ I mean keep him to around 300 yards and 2-3 touchdowns.

If they can keep Rattler from just going off I like Tennessee’s chances here. The Vols should have a huge advantage against South Carolina’s offensive line and a ground game that hasn’t gotten any traction.

If Tennessee can bottle up the ground game, keep South Carolina in bad down and distance situations that will allow the pass rush to tee off on Rattler I like their chances.

Offensively, the chances are going to be there for Tennessee to make plays. It’s going to be on Milton to make some throws. He’s not going to need to have a huge night, but he’s got to make some plays and he has to be accurate when the situation calls for it.

Tennessee’s defense puts a ton of pressure on Rattler. The offense makes a few big plays and the ground game takes over in the second half.

Josh Heupel has never won scoring fewer than 30 points. That won’t be a problem this week.

Tennessee 41
South Carolina 24

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