Matchup Analysis: Complete breakdown of No. 3/4 Florida State at No. 23 Clemson

Despite the fact that Clemson has won the last seven games in this ACC rivalry, Florida State comes into Saturday’s game as a slight favorite. The Seminoles are 3-0 on the season, highlighted by an impressive blowout win of LSU, and ranked No. 3/4 in the major college polls. Clemson is 2-1 after starting the year with a disappointing 24-7 loss to Duke, and the Tigers are No. 23 in one poll and unranked in the other.

This should be a showdown of one of the nation’s top offenses from Florida State and an elite defense from Clemson. On the other side of the ball, the main attraction will be the Tigers’ stout running game against the Seminoles’ veteran defensive front.

Here’s a look at the key matchups on offense, defense and special teams. Also see our Warchant staff score predictions at the end.

Clemson Passing vs. FSU Pass Defense

The Clemson passing attack got off to a shaky start in the Week 1, 28-7 loss to Duke. The Tigers have since regained their footing a little bit, albeit against Charleston Southern and FAU. This will be the first time they have faced a high-quality defense since the season opener in Durham, N.C.

Sophomore Cade Klubnik, the No. 1 quarterback recruit in the 2022 class as well as last year’s ACC Championship Game MVP, is in his first full year starting for the Tigers and has delivered mixed results thus far. Against Duke, he completed 27 of 43 passes for 209 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Since then, he has thrown for seven touchdowns with just one interception against FAU and Charleston Southern.

Overall, the Clemson passing attack is very young. There are no seniors expected to start at wide receiver, and the only upperclassman is junior Beaux Collins. Collins is the Tigers’ leading receiver thus far with 197 yards on 13 receptions. However, 137 of those yards came in Week 2 against Charleston Southern. Duke held him to only one reception on three targets for 10 yards. Closely behind Collins, with 145 yards on 15 receptions, is sophomore Antonio Williams. Mainly playing in the slot, Williams will likely be a bigger factor to watch this week; he had two receptions for 77 yards against Florida State last season.

Clemson also likes to use an assortment of screen plays in the controlled passing game, which really shows off the versatility of star running back Will Shipley. Shipley, who is one of the best running backs in college football and is known for his hard-nosed style, has received more targets than most of the Tigers’ wide receivers. Shipley already has 11 receptions for 58 yards; he only had three receptions for 28 yards at this point last season.

Florida State boasts a very experienced defensive secondary, featuring veterans like seniors Renardo Green and Jarrian Jones and junior Fentrell Cypress. Senior safety Akeem Dent is another multi-year starter, although he went down with an apparent hamstring injury two weeks ago, and his status for the Clemson game is up in the air.

While the Seminoles came into this season with high hopes for their pass defense, they have been victimized with several long pass plays already. But throwing deep has not been a focal point of the Tigers’ offense so far under first-year coordinator Garrett Riley. Clemson’s longest play against FAU went for 30 yards, and the longest against Duke went for 21.

If the Tigers do look to push the ball downfield, they then will have to contend with Florida State’s dangerous pass-rushers. Duke generated a slew of hurries and two sacks against the Tigers. FSU will try to take advantage of young right tackle Blake Miller going up against Jared Verse or Patrick Payton.

EDGE: Florida State

*ALSO SEE: Third-and-Lang: Painting the Incomplete Picture of Clemson QB Cade Klubnik

*AND SEE: Florida State seeks solutions for pass coverage breakdowns

Clemson Rushing Attack vs. FSU Run Defense

The ground game is where Clemson really flexes its muscle, and there is a good chance the game comes down to this matchup. The Tigers’ two-headed monster in the backfield features Shipley and fellow junior Phil Mafah. Shipley is extremely explosive and physical, with 130 of his 225 rushing yards this season coming after contact. Mafah has 169 yards on 25 carries.

Klubnik is not as dangerous a runner as some of the quarterbacks Florida State has faced, but he is willing to use his legs. He has rushed for 63 yards on 23 carries this season; in limited duty last fall, he had 139 yards on 42 carries.

The key to slowing this Clemson attack lies in the trenches. The Tigers boast an experienced offensive line, led by senior center Will Putnam, senior guard Walker Parks and junior guard Marcus Tate. Those interior linemen will clash with the Seminoles’ experienced defensive tackles — seniors Braden Fiske, Fabien Lovett and Dennis Briggs, as well as sophomore Joshua Farmer. FSU linebackers Tatum Bethune, Kalen DeLoach, and DJ Lundy will also be heavily involved in battling the Clemson rushing attack.

Florida State has been hurt by mobile QBs early this season, but not so much by traditional rushing attacks. The running backs from LSU, Southern Miss and BC have combined to rush for just 223 yards on 63 carries against FSU; that’s 3.53 yards per carry and 74.3 yards per game.

EDGE: Even

*ALSO SEE: Power vs. Power: Florida State defensive front sets sights on Clemson’s potent ground game

*AND SEE: Third-and-Lang: FSU, Fuller will face the Clemson ‘Two-Back Challenge’

FSU Passing vs. Clemson Pass Defense

The defensive secondary is the most experienced position group on Clemson’s team. Nate Wiggins is the best coverage corner for the Tigers, and he has only been targeted five times so far this season. And the three receptions he has surrendered have only gone for 10 yards total. He also has one interception on the season. Last year against Florida State, Wiggins gave up two receptions for 47 yards. Senior corner Sheridan Jones has not given up a reception since the Duke game, and last year against Florida State, he only gave up one catch that went for negative-2 yards.

If there’s a weakness in the Clemson secondary, it could be at nickel, where starter Andrew Mukuba has been sidelined since the Duke game. He is “questionable” to be on the field this weekend, and freshman Khalil Barnes has been manning that spot in his absence. Barnes had a strong game against FAU with an interception and two pass breakups. Safeties RJ Mickens and Jaydn Phillips, meanwhile, have only given up a combined one reception since the Duke game. It’s also worth mentioning that linebacker Wade Wodaz is Clemson’s team leader in interceptions with two.

The Tigers will face a Florida State offense led by senior quarterback Jordan Travis and a fleet of talented skill players. Travis is throwing for 246.3 yards per game early this season, and he has completed eight touchdown passes with one interception.

Florida State’s Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson lead the way at receiver, and Wilson has had past success against Clemson. Last year, he recorded six receptions for 75 yards in FSU’s late comeback effort at Doak. Tight end Jaheim Bell could also be a huge factor in this game; he had a big game at Boston College last week with five receptions for 76 yards and a touchdown. Winston Wright and Destyn Hill are listed as co-starters for FSU in the slot. Hill hasn’t done a whole lot so far this season, but he has shown a lot of speed and play-making ability in practice. Wright has four catches for 36 yards. The Seminoles also will get their running backs involved as pass-catchers.

Clemson’s defense has recorded four sacks through three games, while FSU’s offensive line has allowed just two, thanks in part to Travis’ ability to avoid pressure.

EDGE: Florida State (slight)

*ALSO SEE: ‘Can’t wait to get out there’ … FSU QB Jordan Travis fired up for last trip to Clemson

FSU Rushing Attack vs. Clemson Run Defense

Florida State’s running game, which has been the backbone of Mike Norvell’s offenses, has been solid but not spectacular early in the 2023 season. The Seminoles are averaging almost 190 yards per game and 5.42 yards per carry. Leading rusher Trey Benson is averaging 64.7 yards per game, and he had some success against Clemson last season with seven carries for 69 yards. The Seminoles also boast three other running backs who average at least 5.0 yards per carry — junior Lawrance Toafili, redshirt freshman Rodney Hill and junior Caziah Holmes.

Jordan Travis is also a dangerous runner, of course, and those ball-carriers will operate behind a strong and experienced offensive line. The Seminoles have eight extremely experienced offensive linemen and have used them all this season, due in part to injuries sustained by veteran center Maurice Smith and left tackle Robert Scott. Norvell has said he hopes one or both of them will be back this Saturday.

Clemson’s defensive line came into this season rated among the best in the country. Senior Tyler Davis is an All-ACC performer and one of the top defensive tackles in college football; he ranks third on the team with 12 tackles through three games. Senior defensive end Justin Mascoll is also a force against the run at 6-foot-4 and 260 pounds, and tackle Ruke Orhorhoro is a candidate for All-ACC honors as well.

The Tigers also boast a pair of outstanding veteran linebackers in Barrett Carter and Jeremiah Trotter. Carter leads the defense in tackles with 14, and Trotter has 11. Both players earned All-America honors from various publications coming into their junior seasons.

EDGE: Clemson

*ALSO SEE: Henshaw’s House: Why star players will likely determine Florida State-Clemson game

FSU Special Teams vs. Clemson Special Teams

Clemson has had some major issues at kicker this season. Redshirt freshman Robert Gunn, who has a very strong leg, has struggled so far in games; he has connected on just one of four field goals — with the one he made being from 24 yards. Frustrated by Gunn’s rough start, Dabo Swinney has brought back former walk-on kicker Jonathan Weitz, who had left the team but was living in Charleston and taking classes online. Weitz has never attempted a field goal for Clemson, but made all three PATs attempted.

At kick returner, Clemson uses starting running back Will Shipley. He broke off a 69-yarder against Florida State in last year’s game. Leading receiver Antonio Williams, a speedster, will be back deep for punts. So far he has 129 yards on 15 returns, with the longest being 23 yards.

FSU kicker Ryan Fitzgerald is still perfect on the season, and veteran punter Alex Mastromanno has been very dependable. Senior Winston Wright appears to have taken over the kick return duties — he is averaging about 25 yards per return — while junior Keon Coleman handles the punt returns.

EDGE: Florida State

Warchant Staff Predictions: Florida State (3-0) at Clemson (2-1)

Here are our Warchant staff predictions:

Gene Williams (FSU 31-24), Corey Clark (FSU 31-23), Ira Schoffel (34-28); Jeff Cameron (FSU 31-24), Tom Lang (FSU 38-24), Aslan Hajivandi (FSU 35-24), and Matt LaSerre (FSU 24-21).

Talk about this story with other die-hard Florida State football fans on the Tribal Council.

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