ANALYSIS: Inside Lindy’s Sports predictions for Miami Hurricanes 2024 football team
Miami enters 2024 with fans’ hopes high that the program will have its second 10-win season in the last 20 years given the reshaped roster by Mario Cristobal … but the national perspective entering the year has mixed results for the Canes.
Per ESPN’s FPI, Miami has the fourth-best chance of winning the ACC at 9.9 percent, behind FSU’s 26.2 percent, Clemson’s 19.3 and Louisville’s 12.0. SMU was just behind UM with a 9.0 percent chance of winning the conference. The FPI metrics rank Miami No. 23 in the nation (of the team’s opponents FSU is No. 11, Florida No. 20 and Louisville No. 21) and project an 8-4 record.
Then you’ll find the Canes ranked as high as No. 10 in the way-too-early polls by The Athletic (of Miami’s opponents, that’s higher than No. 12 FSU and No. 22 Louisville; also note that The Athletic’s Stewart Mandel has UM 14th with FSU 10th and Louisville 18th with an appearance by Virginia Tech at No. 25). Phil Steele is a believer, too, ranking Miami No. 10 overall, the top ACC team ahead of No. 13 (tied) Clemson and FSU. Miami is ranked No. 17 by CBS Sports (ahead of No. 20 FSU with Louisville unranked), No. 18 by Joel Klatt with Fox Sports (FSU No. 12), No. 21 by SI.com (FSU is 12th and Louisville is No. 24) with ESPN ranking Miami No. 24 (FSU is No. 15 and Louisville 21). Doubters include USA Today, which doesn’t have Miami in the top 25 and has FSU No. 15 and Virginia Tech No. 23, Pro Football Focus, which has Louisville No. 13, FSU No. 15 and UM unranked, and Yardbarker.com, which has FSU No. 18, Louisville 23rd and Miami not in the top 25.
When it comes to the odds-makers? Miami is a three-point favorite in Game 1 at Florida per DraftKings, a 7.5-point favorite against Virginia Tech, and chances are the Canes will be favored to win every game this year except perhaps FSU (currently an even line) and Louisville (DraftKings has UM as a one-point underdog).
Action Network lists Miami tied with Clemson and FSU atop the ACC in total wins with 9.5, which is also tied for sixth-best nationally. DraftKings’ over-under on UM wins this year is 9.0 (over nine wins -125, under +105). FanDuel has it set at 9.5 with the over at +138 and the under -170.
The odds Miami makes the 12-team playoffs? DraftKings has that as +250, which is 17th on the list and behind ACC teams Clemson (+185) and Florida State (+130).
As for QB Cam Ward’s Heisman odds? Per DraftKings that is +2200, which is ninth in the nation and best of any ACC player. RB Damien Martinez checks in at +10,000. FanDuel has Ward listed at No. 10 for the Heisman at +2200 with Martinez not listed.
When it comes to winning the national title, DraftKings has Miami with the 16th best odds at +5500 and FanDuel has UM No. 16 (+5000). The Canes have the third-best odds to win the ACC per DraftKings and FanDuel at +450, behind FSU (+270) and Clemson (+390).
With all the above in mind, today we are taking a closer look at one of the more respected preseason college football publications, Lindy’s Sports.
THE DATA
Miami checks in ranked No. 17, with the publication noting that transfer upgrades will make a difference. The team is picked to finish third in the ACC, behind No. 1 FSU and No. 2 Clemson, with the magazine noting that “skepticism of Cristobal is warranted on a team that has ACC Championship talent.”
The Canes’ offense is expected to be explosive, ranking No. 7 in the nation as a unit by Lindy’s behind only Texas, Ohio State, Georgia, Penn State, Alabama and Kansas.
In position by position national rankings, Cam Ward is listed as the nation’s No. 8 QB, Damien Martinez the No. 5 RB, Xavier Restrepo the No. 8 receiver, Francisco Mauigoa the No. 10 middle linebacker and Andy Borregales the No. 5 kicker. The Canes’ wide receiver unit as a whole ranks No. 7 in the nation and the offensive line No. 9.
As far as conference picks? Lindy’s lists Cam Ward on its honor roll for “strongest arm,” and has him as a first team All-Conference pick along with Martinez, Restrepo, OL Francis Mauigoa, Borregales and Francisco Mauigoa. The second team All-ACC picks are WR Jacolby George, OL Anez Cooper, OL Jalen Rivers, DL Rueben Bain and DB Mishael Powell. On the third team: OL Zach Carpenter, DL Akheem Mesidor and P Dylan Joyce.
Miami has no one on the preseason All-American first or second teams on either side of the ball.
Lindy’s “Scouting Report” reads “I think this is the year they really break through, starting with Florida in Week 1. Total statement game for Miami. …. I love, love, love Damien Martinez. What a nice catch. Give Mario credit: He’s got some pizzazz. I mean, maybe it’s not a shock, but he’s pulling some big-time talent from the portal. The hype on Cam Ward might be a bit over the top, but if he’s super focused I can’t see how there are any weak spots on this offense.”
THE TRANSFER PORTAL
Overall Lindy’s rated Miami 12th nationally with its portal haul. Individually Ward was the 14th best transfer portal pickup in the nation, with Martinez No. 33, Sam Brown No. 60 and Tyler Baron No. 71.
Miami was picked as a “winner” in the transfer portal, with Lindy’s noting that the Canes “won the quarterback sweepstakes (Ward) … then they raided the other remaining `Pac-2’ school by nabbing Martinez from Oregon State in late April.”
Ward was ranked No. 4 in the magazine’s “Heisman Watch” section, behind No. 1 Carson Beck, No. 2 Quinn Ewers and No. 3 Dillon Gabriel.
THE OPPONENTS
Only one of Miami’s opponents this year is ranked in the top 25, a sign of the easy schedule the Canes face. That one team is FSU at No. 10 with a strong defense noted but a lot of offensive production that needs to be replaced. Other ranked ACC teams that Miami doesn’t face? Clemson is No. 14 and NC State No. 22.
As you look down the rankings nationally by Lindy’s, Miami’s other opponents are ranked No. 28 (Louisville), 29 (Virginia Tech), 37 (Florida), 42 (Georgia Tech), 56 (Syracuse), 60 (USF), 61 (Cal), 69 (Wake Forest), 70 (Duke) and 128 (Ball State).
THIS AND THAT
Cam Ward is rated the No. 2 “most impactful QB transfer” by Lindy’s, behind only Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel. The publication has RB Damien Martinez listed at No. 9 on its list of “15 most impactful non-QB transfers.” Also on that list: Former Cane WR Colbie Young, who is now at Georgia and checks in at No. 15.
In the nation’s top 15 conference games category, Miami vs. FSU checks in at No. 11 as a “nasty rivalry that should have a great deal of intrigue this time around.” FSU vs. Clemson? That checks in at No. 5 on the list. The opener at Florida ranks No. 7 nationally on Lindy’s list of “top 15 non-conference games.”
Lindy’s has a sneak peek at the next NFL Draft and the top 5 prospects at each position … and no Miami players are listed.
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