Film Study: Closer look at what Miami defensive coordinator Lance Guidry is up against trying to slow down UNC QB Drake Maye
Coming off the stunning loss to Georgia Tech, Miami needs to turn things around in a hurry. There can’t be sulking or anything other than simply getting ready for the next task at hand. That’s because Drake Maye awaits the Hurricanes. If Miami is going to erase a bit of the memory of the “didn’t take a knee” game, the team is going to need to find a way to slow down North Carolina’s star quarterback.
For perspective, many view the UNC signal caller as a top 10 NFL Draft pick in 2024. And with good reason. Let’s start with a look at his statistics and Pro Football Focus grades.
So far this season he’s thrown eight TDs with four INTs, averaging 325.8 passing yards per game. He’s also run for 174 yards with four more scores. Maye completes an impressive 72.1 percent of his passes.
As for his PFF grades? He has an elite 90.2 grade (90.1 passing), and his strong play is nothing new – last year the then-redshirt freshman was ACC Player of the Year after throwing for 4,321 yards with 38 TDs and seven INTs. He added 698 rush yards and seven scores on the ground.
There just are a myriad of ways he can beat you – outstanding arm and accuracy, smarts and he can hurt you with his legs.
Maye and UNC is working under a new offensive coordinator this year in Chip Lindsey (replacing Phil Longo), but the production has been similar to last year – the team is averaging 36.6 points (18th in the nation) and 500.0 yards per game (ninth in the nation) vs. the 34.4 points and 462.8 yards of a year ago when the team had a 9-5 record.
Lindsey arrived at North Carolina after serving as coordinator at UCF for a year and prior to that he was head coach at Troy (where he also called plays) and coordinator at Auburn, Arizona State and Southern Miss.
Lindsey said when he took over that he was going to tweak the offense rather than put in a new system, and that’s been the case. It’s a power-based spread in the Gus Malzahn mold, and Lindsey won’t rely only on the passing game … he wants to establish the run and stick with that aspect as well (the team’s run the ball 53.5 percent of the time this season). He will use screen passes, the quick passing game and also attack down the field. In other words, he will spread out a defense from left to right and vertically, looking for the best matchups to attack.
As a comparison to a year ago: Maye had 13.1 credited runs per game last year; this year he averages 10.4 runs. As a team UNC’s running backs had the ball in their hands as runners 29.8 percent of the time in 2022; this year the backs are carrying the ball 37.5 percent of the time.
Also of note: This is a UNC team that will run up to the ball and snap it as quickly as any team in the nation … so Miami’s defenders need to be on point and not be caught off guard.
With all the above in mind, let’s take a closer look at just what Miami is up against this weekend in Maye:
SOUTH CAROLINA GAME (24-32, 269 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 25 rush yards)
This is a great example of the confusion North Carolina creates for a defense. It’s technically a five wide receiver look, but UNC has put offensive lineman William Barnes in the slot and disguised tight end John Copenhaver lined up as the left tackle eligible. Right at the snap Copenhaver doesn’t even try to block and runs straight upfield, surprising the right defensive end who is just rushing the passer. There is no defender within six yards of Copenhaver when the ball is thrown, a result of spreading out the defense with the five wide look. Just a brilliant play call and it shows how Lindsey will involve the tight ends (later in the game Maye threw up a ball in one on one coverage under duress that Copenhaver came back to for a TD). So Miami won’t just have to worry about Maye’s accuracy and running ability but also intricate schemes like this, tight ends being involved in the pass game, UNC wanting to get the run game heavily involved, etc. Also of note: The Tar Heels only used four to block on the play, and if somehow Copenhaver didn’t come free there were two more quick reads for Maye given the possibility of limited protection – Barnes in an emergency on the right side stepping back three yards behind the line ready to catch the ball and an open receiver on a quick comeback route on the left sideline. Just a really well designed play.
This is a prime example of Maye the scrambling QB. UNC leaves in six to block four rushers, and with the tight end and receivers all running deep routes the middle of the field is left wide open. Maye initially looks left and he does have the tight end coming free, but the big hole up the middle was too much to pass up. And even with South Carolina spying him with a linebacker you see Maye easily escape his diving tackle attempt and then almost get out of a second tackle. The Canes will need to have very good containment and gap control up front on its rushes.
This is a good example of Maye extending plays with his legs and throwing accurately in a tight window. Oh, and did we mention the pinpoint throw was across his body while on the run? On this particular play UNC has gone five wide and South Carolina tries some trickery by only rushing two and dropping everyone else into coverage. Maye probably could have run for 5 or 10 yards up the middle right off the bat, but keeps looking downfield, He winds up scrambling to his left at which point a third defender attacks him. With no one open Maye reverses course back to the middle and then jumps and throws back across his body for a diving third down conversion catch in tight coverage.
North Carolina lines up in one of its typical run formation with an H-back behind the right tackle/right guard, and at the snap the OL movement indicates a run to that spot. But it’s a play-action fake, and that leaves South Carolina CB Keenan Nelson, Jr. flat-footed as he has his eyes in the backfield to see if he needs to come up and help make the tackle. Meanwhile Kobe Paysour is speeding right by him for the easy TD with safety help coming over too late. So Miami will have to be very good with its eye discipline and not let the play-action game result in explosive pass plays.
APP STATE GAME (21-30, 208 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, 57 rush yards, rushing TD)
The deep passing game off play action is something you saw in the prior game, and against App State you see UNC also going to it. This is another example of how North Carolina likes to use a hard play-action fake to slow down the pass rush and buy time to find guys open in the secondary. In this case it’s WR J.J. Jones running free deep down the field and Maye hits him in stride. As in the South Carolina game, you see UNC line up with an H-Back behind the five linemen, between the guard and tackle, with the run action going in that direction. Maye has all kinds of time to throw on the play. So Miami has to get pressure on Maye while also maintaining good coverage in the secondary. Easier said than done, but without it Maye makes you pay.
With the field getting smaller in the red zone and in double OT, UNC dials up a run-pass option that sees the run play set up to go between the right guard and right tackle … if the ball is handed off. But Maye sees the safety sneak down into that gap just before the snap, and he fakes the handoff and keeps to the left. He has a linebacker to beat who would be free to make the one-on-one tackle … but the LB is fooled by the play-action and turns to the inside. North Carolina’s right guard has also pulled to be a lead blocker for Maye in the event he keeps, and the tight end has gone in motion from right to left and also lays a block to help free Maye in the backfield. Maye gets a head of steam in front of DE DeAndre Dingle-Prince and is gone untouched into the end zone. A well designed play which shows how the Canes’ linebackers and defensive backs will have to really hold their assignments and be prepared for misdirection and multiple run/pass possibilities each snap.
MINNESOTA GAME (29-40, 414 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 34 rush yards)
On this play Maye again displays how dangerous he is throwing on the move. He rolls right and throws deep while on the run on the money for a TD. In this particular case Minnesota only rushed three, so it’s somewhat inexcusable to let a WR behind your D. But Maye brought extra time by rolling right and then found Nate McCollum with a step on the cornerback. The Tar Heels left five linemen in protection without help, somewhat typical for them when spreading the field, and the running back also could have been open on a screen for a decent gain after slipping through the line if he hadn’t fallen down (Miami defenders will need to keep an eye on RB screens).
This is an example of how the UNC tight ends get down the field and can also make plays in the deep passing game. In this case it’s Kamari Morales lining up in the slot and running straight up the field with no one picking him up on a busted coverage. Morales is wide open, and on this particular play Maye’s first read was actually to the left side. But that’s covered well so he comes off it with only three rushing (Minnesota has total confusion on the play with two linebackers both thinking they are spying Maye from the middle when one was likely responsible for helping on the TE in the slot). Maye starts to roll right, sees the wide open Morales with safety help coming too late and throws the TD. Miami hasn’t faced a team that has receiving tight ends like this, so it’s going to be a challenge for the linebackers/nickel and safeties.
This red zone play call for North Carolina saw a play-action fake followed by a pump fake … both of which helped slow the rush and keep the defenders flat-footed to some extent. UNC also continues to show it likes to spread the field even in the short field, with a four receiver set. On this particular play the team has three pass catchers lined up right, and on defense there are three apparent cover guys (a linebacker on the tight end) with a safety helping as well. At the snap the safety charges up with the play looking like it’s going to be a short quick-hitter on the right side to WR Nate McCollum. The safety realizes too late that TE Kamari Morales, who initially appears to be waiting to block for McCollum, is actually charging upfield as a receiver. It’s too late to chip him, and the linebacker also starts after McCollum at the snap, picking up Morales too late. The tight end is wide open for an easy TD. This is another case of the defense needing really good eye discipline and maintaining assignments. A simple fake by the tight end that he’s going to be the lead blocker on a quick hitter winds up leaving him wide open when he breaks out of the fake and runs downfield. This is yet another example of how UNC’s offense really forces you to be disciplined in your assignments
PITTSBURGH GAME (22-30, 296 yards, TD, 0 INT, 3 rush yards, 2 rushing TDs)
Just in case Miami wants to have something else to worry about with North Carolina’s proficient passing/rushing attack, here’s a neat little play UNC dialed up vs. Pitt. The Tar Heels go three-wide with an H-back and the tailback behind Maye. At the snap all the action makes it look like a rush to the right side. That draws up Pitt boundary corner AJ Woods, who thinks he has diagnosed the play. He has not. It’s a double reverse, with slot receiver Kobe Paysour running toward the back to take the pitch … and then pitch it once more back to Maye. The Panthers line has been pursuing the run play to the offense’s right side, and by the time Woods realizes what’s happening the man he was covering – TE John Copenhaver – has gone right by him. Nobody is near Maye. There is safety help over the top but he also got caught peeking the backfield and pushed up. That allows Copenhaver to get behind both of them for the 40-yard gain. Again, Miami has to have good eye discipline at all levels in this game or the Tar Heels will make UM pay.
This is more just an example of how Maye has some Pat Mahomes ability. In this case Pitt has actually maintained good discipline at the line and pursued Maye as he ran a keeper to the left off an RPO. DL Nate Temple has his arms wrapped around Maye for what should bring up a third down and long in the red zone. But Maye sneaks the ball up and out of his left hand with a wide open Kobe Paysour in the end zone for the score. Yes, he threw it lefty. The cornerback on that side made a mistake leaving Paysour to attack Maye, assuming it was a pure run play. If he stuck with his man the play ends in a loss.
SYRACUSE GAME (33-47, 442 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs, 55 rush yards, TD)
This is an example of how North Carolina’s receivers can get separation one on one … a warning for Miami’s defensive backs, in essense. In this particular case the play fake holds off the rush for a split-second, and Maye actually has two deep targets running free. He winds up going to Nate McCollum for the gain to the one. UNC also buys Maye time by using the slot receiver in motion in protection as well as the running back.
This is another example of how difficult it can be to stop North Carolina on short yardage plays. There’s a play action fake to the running back running right, meanwhile H-back John Copenhaver runs in the opposite direction at the snap. Maye fakes the handoff and keeps, and with his mobility is a threat to run it in. So Syracuse safety Justin Barron has a choice to make – chase Maye, who otherwise runs in the score, or cover the tight end, Copenhaver. He opts for the former and Maye flips the ball forward for the easy TD. This is just really tough to stop and Miami will have to play assignment football and have the right hats in the right spots … and be aware that UNC loves to have this pre-snap movement one way and then a receiver or tight end that will move in the opposite direction at the snap as a primary target.
If you want to stop Maye and this high-powered offense? An example is here: Bring quick pressure and don’t let Maye’s first or second reads get much space. Here you can see Maye look for a quick hitter on the first and second read and then there’s no gap for him to squeeze through running and he’s sacked. It also probably helped Syracuse that Maye thought his receiver to the right was going to cut his route short, but didn’t. Also, if you notice, the Orange rushed five and had the middle linebacker spying Maye in case he tried to escape the pocket. We expect Guidry to similarly look to bring pressure with more than four regularly while also keeping someone spying Maye in the run game. Then it’s on the secondary to hold up.
This is similar to the previous clip, where Syracuse had success bringing pressure and maintaining coverage down the field. But in this case Maye squeezes through a gap. So we include this just to again emphasize the ability of Maye as a runner. He’s elusive and quick enough to escape tackles, so the Canes have to be very wary of him pulling it down and taking off.
The bottom line?
If you’re looking for how to affect Maye it starts with getting him under pressure. One of his interceptions this year bounced off a receiver’s hands. But others came when he was under pressure and rushed a decision. You can see examples of those below, including the second one on which he doesn’t see Minnesota safety Jack Henderson coming over and the third where he assumes a receiver will be in a spot but doesn’t have time to actually see it before throwing the ball right to a defender.
Overall yes, it’s going to be hard to stop Maye and all you can hope to do is limit what he gets. Lance Guidry will pull out all the stops in this one trying to figure out a way to confuse Maye a little bit, and certainly pressure him while maintaining pocket integrity to prevent him slipping out and running. You can see that when Maye is under pressure he makes bad decisions at times. But this has all the pre-game makings of a high-scoring game in which Miami will have to simply outscore the Tar Heels.
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