Game Preview: Michigan State vs. Iowa
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Kickoff: 6:35 p.m.
TV: NBC – Noah Eagle, Todd Blackledge, and Kathryn Tappen on the call.
Last Meeting: Iowa beat Michigan State in Iowa City, 49-7.
The Weather: Game time temps in the low 80’s with 5-10 mph winds
The Line: Iowa is a 12 point favorite
History: Iowa holds a 24-22-2 edge in the overall series. Iowa is 14-10-1 in games in Iowa City against the Spartans. Kirk Ferentz is 8-8 against Michigan State during his tenure. Michigan State has won three of the last four meetings between the two schools.
THE BREAKDOWN
Iowa rush offense vs. Michigan State rush defense
It was a pretty brutal ground game for the Iowa ground game last week. Iowa rushed for just 20 yards on 17 carries against Penn State. The Hawkeyes will once again be without Kaleb Johnson and Jaziun Patterson, who remain out with ankle injuries. Iowa is averaging 118.5 yards per game on the ground and they have five rushing touchdowns.
Leading the Iowa ground game this week will be Leshon Williams, who has 173 yards per game rushing. Kamari Moulton, a true freshmen, is also expected to play. He has 68 yards rushing in the last two games. There’s also a chance that fellow freshmen Terrell Washington gets in the mix as a rusher and receiver.
So far this season, the Spartans are allowing 128.5 yards per game on the ground. They have given up a pair of rushing touchdowns this season. Safeties Dillion Tatum and Malik Spencer lead the team in tackles with 26. Linebacker Cal Haladay is at 25 stops this year. Overall the Spartans have 28 tackles for loss. Leading the team in tackles for loss is Zion Young, a defensive end, who has 3.5 tackles for loss. On paper, Iowa should have an edge here, even though they are without two of their top backs this week. ADVANTAGE: SLIGHT TO IOWA
Iowa pass offense vs. Michigan State pass defense
The Hawkeye passing game continues to struggle. It was a huge struggle last week against Penn State. Iowa threw for only 56 yards and no touchdowns. For the season, Iowa is passing for just 127 yards per game. That total is 125th in the country so far this year.
Cade McNamara is 43-85 (50.6%) for 459 yards. He has thrown for four touchdown passes and three interceptions. Iowa’s air attack will be without Luke Lachey, who has ten receptions. Fellow tight end Erick All has 10 receptions for 116 yards. Iowa’s wide receivers have only 14 total receptions this year and only three of them have catches. Leading that group is Nico Ragaini with 6 catches for 52 yards. Seth Anderson and Diante Vines have four receptions each and they have one touchdown reception.
Michigan State is 92nd in country in pass defense. They are allowing 243.3 yards per game in the air and they have given up a high total of 9 touchdowns. The Spartans have three interceptions this season and they have broken up 16 passes. Angelo Grose has three passes broken up and one interception this season.
As far as a pass rush, they have ten sacks. Linebacker Aaron Brule leads the team with a pair of sacks and Zion Young and Simeon Barrow have 1.5 sacks each. They also have 22 quarterback hurries this season. Young, Barrow, and Brandon Wright have four hurries each.
If Iowa’s passing game is every going to show life then this would be the opportunity. Can they is the real question. ADVANTAGE: PUSH
Michigan State rush offense vs. Iowa rush defense
The Spartans ground game is averaging 111.0 yards per game on the ground and 3.5 yards per carry. Leading that group is Nate Carter, who is averaging 369 yards per game and four touchdowns rushing in 2023. Former Wisconsin back Jalen Berger is their second running back. He is averaging 15.5 yards per game on the ground.
Iowa’s rush defense took a pretty big hit last week. Penn State ran for 215 yards against the Hawkeyes and averaged 3.8 yards per carry. Overall, Iowa is allowing 133.8 yards per game on the ground and 3.6 yards per carry. The Hawkeyes have yet to allow a rushing touchdown.
The top two tacklers this season are Jay Higgins and Nick Jackson. Higgins has 50 stops in four games and Jackson is at 36 tackles. Cooper DeJean is at 24 tackles. As far as tackles for loss, Iowa has 20 this season. Leading that category is Jackson with 3. Sebastian Castro is at three this season. This feels like a real bounce back spot for the Iowa ground defense against Michigan State. Last week was out of character and the Spartans don’t have much of a ground game. ADVANTAGE: IOWA
Michigan State pass offense vs. Iowa pass defense
Michigan State has played two quarterbacks recently, but it looks like they will be sticking with Noah Kim to start on Saturday. Overall, the Spartans are averaging 266.0 yards per game in the air this season and completing 57% of their passes. Kim is 66-116 in passing for 897 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. Katin Houser is the other possible quarterback. He is 9-16 for 158 yards.
The Spartans have three main receiver targets this season. Leading the way is Tre Mosley, who has 13 receptions for 157 yards and one score. Montorie Foster has 11 catches for 147 yards. Tight end Maliq Carr has 10 catches for 113 yards and one score.
Iowa’s pass defense remains strong this season. The Hawkeyes are giving up 180.0 yards per game in the air this season and they have allowed seven touchdown passes. Iowa only has a pair of interceptions this season, which is lower than normal. Sebastian Castro has a pick six and Xavier Nwankpa has one as well. They have 13 passes broken up this season.
From a pass rush perspective, Iowa has not been as impactful there. They have three sacks this season, one each for Deontae Craig, Joe Evans, and Nick Jackson. The Hawkeyes are listed with 14 quarterback hurries, led by five from Evans. While Michigan State has been more heavy in the pass game, it’s hard to see where they have a big day in the air. ADVANTAGE: SLIGHT TO IOWA
Special Teams
Tory Taylor remains one of the top punters in college football. He has 23 punts this year for an average of 48.0 yards. He has dropped 9 punts inside the 20 yard line. Drew Stevens has been great on field goals and kickoffs. He is 4-5 this year with a long of 34 yards. Cooper DeJean will handle punt returns and is averaging 9.1 yards per return. Kaden Wetjen is expected to return kickoffs and is averaging 25.8 yards per return.
Michigan State’s punter is Michael O’Shaughnessy is averaging just 40.1 yards per punt and has three punts inside the 20 yard line. Jonathon Kim is their field goal kicker. He has made 3-4 this season with a long of 52 yards. Tyrell Hunter handles the Spartans punt and kickoff returns. He is averaging 18.3 on kickoff returns and 8.3 on punt returns.
Iowa should have a significant edge in the punt and return game. ADVANTAGE: IOWA
THE LAST CALL
Given what happened in the last game, this might end up being the most pivotal game of the season for the Iowa football team. Everything that could go wrong, went wrong in the game at Penn State and you could tell this week that there was some frustration bubbling up.
The leaders of the Hawkeye team had a real challenge this week and I am pretty confident that they held things together as a team, which was critical. But, Iowa needs a good performance in this game to calm those choppy waters. My sense is given that this is a night game, blackout contest, and all black uniforms, Iowa will be ready to go and give a strong effort.
A couple of keys to this one. Michigan State has had a few weeks to adjust to life without Mel Tucker. Did any of their players decide to opt out for the rest of this season? We shall see.
Iowa needs to get their wide receivers more involved. That group having just 35 targets and 14 receptions is stunning and needs to change. Look for Cade McNamara to target the wide receivers early and often in this game. They almost have to at this point or risk losing that group.
I also think we are going to see a very spirited effort from the Iowa defense. They got pushed around last week and that doesn’t sit well with Phil Parker. I think they are going to get after it against the Spartans and look for the run defense and pass game pressure to be strong.
I see a pretty low scoring game. I think Iowa will come out of the gate strong and probably ride that to the finish line. IOWA 17 MICHIGAN STATE 6. My pick to click this week is Cooper DeJean. He gets a pick that sets up a score.
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