Film Analysis: How LSU limits Florida State’s passing attack
Florida State ended the 2022 season with a top 15 offense and one of the more balanced offenses in the entire country. Behind a talented running back room, Jordan Travis at quarterback, and Johnny Wilson leading an improved receiving corps, it was the step forward Seminole fans had been waiting for under head coach Mike Norvell.
LSU and Florida State meet in Orlando to open their 2023 seasons in perhaps the best non-conference game of the entire college football season. The Seminoles’ offense returns Travis, Wilson, and running back Trey Benson, while also adding more dynamism in transfer receiver Keon Coleman and transfer tight end Jaheim Bell.
With so much talent, the offense is expected to be potent, but what will it look like on Sunday? Specifically, what will the pass game look like? We looked at last year’s passing attack to get a better idea for what the Seminoles can repeat and where there could be changes entering the year. Oh yea, and let’s talk about how LSU can beat them even with the questions in the secondary.
Set up off the run
The first part of the pass game we have to talk about is how the Seminoles use the run game to set it up. Their run game was one of the more consistently explosive of any team in the country. Defenses routinely loaded up to stop the run, often leaving the receivers in one-on-one coverage or allowing Travis to get loose as a runner.
Travis had a lot of roll out opportunities, similar to Jayden Daniels, giving him the option to run it or throw to the flat.
Furthermore, even just standard play action/RPOs are staples for the Seminoles. Look at Florida’s linebackers here.
Ideally, Florida State’s run game puts them in good position on third downs, which is vitally important to offense’s success. The Seminoles ranked top five in third down conversion percentage at 51 percent last year. Most of that is the run game, but Travis’ creativity and playmaking also came into play often.
Explosiveness
Florida State ranked 11th in the country in explosive play rate per Collegefootballdata.com and while a good portion of that was on the ground, Travis averaged 9.1 yards per attempt last year, while Wilson averaged over 20 yards per reception.
There’s a simple principle Florida State’s offense lives by: If you see the one-on-one, you throw it. Wilson stands at 6-foot-7 and made play after play last year in these situations.
Now, Florida State adds 6-foot-4 Keon Coleman who made similarly impressive plays last year in the Big 10. Florida State didn’t have another big-play threat opposite Wilson last year, but this year, it’s going to be a struggle for defenses to stop the big-plays for 60 minutes.
Outside of the one-on-one opportunities, Travis’ legs were able to scramble for yards and extend plays in a way that LSU will have to account for.
Jordan Travis effectiveness
Speaking of Travis, the Seminoles’ quarterback finished the season as the No. 5 graded passer in the country on PFF. The talent jumps off the screen and the stats back it up. Travis’ timing is one of his best strengths, frequently hitting his receivers right out of their breaks or as they create separation from the defender. We know about his accuracy as a 64 percent passer, but the ability to hit receivers in stride helps create even more yards after the catch.
What happens when you ruin that timing, though? Let’s talk about that.
How LSU slows FSU’s pass game
As is the case with any quarterback, you want to unsettle Travis. His two worst passing games of the 2022 season were against NC State and Florida. What did both have in common? The pass rush gave Travis fits. Against NC State he rushed for 108 yards and completed 50 percent of his passes. Against Florida he rushed for 84 yards and completed just 43.3 percent of his passes.
Clemson was a similar game where he completed 57 percent of his passes while rushing for 64 yards. Those are the only three games where Travis completed less than 60 percent of his passes and the only games he rushed for over 50 yards. There’s a correlation in Travis’ running with his comfort level. The more he runs, the more he’s uncomfortable as a passer. This isn’t a revelation, it’s the case for most quarterbacks, but because Travis has the weapons on the perimeter, he is much more suited to be a playmaker with his arm from the pocket. You want Travis to try to beat you with his legs.
Both Florida and NC State mixed in various blitzes, stunts, and pressures up front to get to the quarterback. Even when the two dropped into coverage, the fronts were still getting adequate pressure.
Florida played a lot of man and it worked. Wilson was mostly kept under wraps with safety help over the top, while the rest of the receivers weren’t dynamic enough to make plays. Wilson started the game catching just one of his first seven targets.
When NC State wasn’t blitzing it dropped into a tight zone that forced Travis to make some uncomfortable throws on third and longs. The Wolfpack also did an excellent job stifling FSU’s run game early on to get into these situations.
For me, the pass rush remains top priority for LSU in this game. Getting Travis out of the pocket is step one, even if he gets some yards as a runner.
The challenge for defensive coordinator Matt House is deciding on coverages to match up with the FSU receivers. Duce Chestnut/Sage Ryan are 6-feet on a good day and can be targeted on the boundary, but zone also puts pressure on the rest of the defense to not blow an assignment.
It’s important to emphasize the impact that Saivion Jones, Ovie Oghoufo, and Harold Perkins will need to have on this game. If LSU unsettles Travis there’s reason to believe the Tigers can quickly take control in Orlando and leave 1-0 to start the year.
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