Welcome to The Friday Pick-Six, a weekly column here during the 2023 season where I\u2019ll pick five games against the spread each week, plus my Upset Du Jour.\u00a0<\/p>\n
We\u2019ll track the bets, and y\u2019all can decide to fade or tail (for entertainment purposes only!)<\/p>\n
After a 2-3 start in Week 1<\/a>, I bounced back strong last weekend, going 3-1-1 and nailing my Upset Du Jour (Washington State over Wisconsin).\u00a0<\/p>\n Now, I can\u2019t brag too much because I was DEAD WRONG about Texas at Alabama. On the season, I\u2019m floating just above .500 at 5-4-1.\u00a0 Week 3 isn\u2019t the juiciest slate, but there are still good games to bet.\u00a0<\/p>\n Let\u2019s dive in: (All point spreads come from\u00a0FanDuel<\/a>).<\/p>\n (Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports) <\/p>\n The Gators are an underdog at home against the Vols for just the second time in school history, but they also have history on their side \u2014 Tennessee hasn\u2019t won in the Swamp since 2003.\u00a0<\/p>\n The SEC East (very likely) isn\u2019t on the line Saturday night, but the stakes remain large for both head coaches in the matchup.<\/a> Can Josh Heupel<\/a><\/strong> continue to prove Tennessee is truly back? Or will Billy Napier<\/a><\/strong> get his first signature win at Florida?<\/p>\n Even with the Vols\u2019 thirst for tempo, I foresee an ugly, low-possession game. For all the talk about Joe Milton<\/a><\/strong> and Graham Mertz<\/a><\/strong>, both defenses in this game have juice. I prefer the under, but since we\u2019re stick to spreads here, I\u2019m going to trust both my eyes and the data. The Swamp will play a factor, but Tennessee squeaks bye with a win and cover.\u00a0<\/p>\n PICK: Tennessee -6.5<\/strong><\/p>\n John Reed-USA TODAY Sports<\/p>\n I don\u2019t understand the line movement in this game. The Tigers have continued to gain steam in the market after this opened at K-State -6. What am I missing?<\/p>\n The Wildcats have the better coach. The better quarterback. The better offensive line. And as good of a defense. A (four-touchdown) win over Troy might not mean as much in 2023 vs. 2022, but it\u2019s still a much better win than Mizzou having to hang on to beat a bad MTSU squad. <\/p>\n I like the Tigers\u2019 defense (No. 2 in the SEC in yards per play allowed), but unless Eli Drinkwitz<\/a><\/strong> & Co., have been really saving the bag the first two weeks, there\u2019s little to be optimistic about offensively. Add in the fact that Drink seems allergic to going for it on 4th-and-short \u2014\u00a0in two games, Mizzou has punted five times on 4th-and-2 or less \u2014\u00a0I\u2019d ride the reigning Big 12 Champs to win on the road.<\/p>\n PICK: Kansas State -3.5<\/strong><\/p>\n Matthew O\u2019Haren | USA TODAY Sports<\/p>\n The Backyard Brawl: In Morgantown under the lights with two embattled coaches \u2014\u00a0one who is looking to save his job and the other who just lost to a rebuilding Cincy team at home? Sign me up!\u00a0<\/p>\n Neal Brown<\/a><\/strong> believes the Mountaineers are better than most expect (see: Picked to finish last in the Big 12), and while his team is slightly favored, a win against WVU\u2019s biggest rival would go a long way in quieting his critics.\u00a0<\/p>\n Meanwhile, Pat Narduzzi <\/a><\/strong>might\u2019ve whiffed on a transfer portal QB for the second straight cycle, as Boston College transfer Phil Jurkoevec<\/a><\/strong> was awful against the Bearcats (10 of 32 for 179 yards). More concerning is Pitt\u2019s OL and DLs don\u2019t seem up to their usual snuff. The Mountaineers do have a better OL and their defense, though it might still be a sieve against offenses with a pulse, holds up enough to deliver Brown a marquee win.<\/p>\n PICK: West Virginia -1<\/strong><\/p>\n Penn State running back Nicholas Singleton. (Credit: Frank Hyatt | Blue White Illustrated)<\/p>\n I came into the season fairly bullish on Illinois avoiding a regression-year after losing so much talent to the NFL<\/a>, and I know it\u2019s just two games, but I\u2019d like a mulligan on that.\u00a0<\/p>\n The Fighting Illini needed a game-winning field goal to beat Toledo and then got straight dog-walked by Kansas last weekend. I love Jalon Daniels<\/a><\/strong> and the Jayhawks\u2019 offense, and they rushed for 262 yards. And now Illinois faces Drew Allar<\/a><\/strong>, Nick Singleton<\/a><\/strong> and Kaytron Allen<\/a><\/strong>.\u00a0<\/p>\n It will be Allar\u2019s first road start, but if the Nittany Lions are a true national championship contender in 2023, they take that rushing attack and aggressive defense and bully Illinois to cover the number.<\/p>\n PICK: Penn State -14.5<\/strong><\/p>\n Quarterback Kurtis Rourke threw for 345 yards and 4 touchdowns in Ohio\u2019s season-opening win over Florida Atlantic. (Courtesy Ohio Athletics)<\/p>\n I\u2019m not dumb enough to say, \u201cWrong team favored.\u201d But maybe?<\/p>\n With the return of senior quarterback Kurtis Rourke<\/a><\/strong>, Ohio upset FAU on the road last weekend \u2014 and that was with Rourke was bad (18 of 29 for 203 yards, one touchdown and two picks) still recovering from an injury he suffered in the opener against San Diego State. The Bobcats play solid defense and I expect Rourke to look more like he did in 2022 (3,300 yards, 25 touchdowns to four picks) with his sea-legs back under him.\u00a0<\/p>\n The Cyclones are going to be tough to score against, but they can\u2019t muster much of anything offensively, either. They\u2019re averaging just 4.5 yards per play and 270 yards per game. I\u2019ll take the hook and at least see a solid MAC team cover at home.\u00a0<\/p>\n PICK: Ohio +3.5<\/strong><\/p>\n Ryan Walters (Chad Krockover)<\/p>\n Ryan Walters<\/a><\/strong> got his first career win as a head coach last weekend, upsetting Virginia Tech in Blacksburg. Transfer quarterback Hudson Card<\/a><\/strong> has been decent (502 yards, 63% completion, two touchdowns and no picks), but more impressively was the Boilermakers\u2019 defensive line against the Hokies.\u00a0<\/p>\n They allowed just 11 yards rushing on 19 attempts and recorded three sacks, too. Syracuse will absolutely be a stiffer test for Purdue. The Orange\u2019s 3-3-5 defense has a tendency to frustrate opponents who don\u2019t see that system often, and senior quarterback Garrett Schrader<\/a><\/strong> has lit up some bad defenses (six total touchdowns, 10.1 yards per attempt) to start 2023. Still, I\u2019ll take the Boilermakers to play spoiler at home.\u00a0<\/p>\n PICK: Purdue<\/strong><\/p>\n The post Friday Pick-Six: Week 3 best bets in Tennessee-Florida, the Backyard Brawl, K-State-Mizzou, more<\/a> appeared first on On3<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Welcome to The Friday Pick-Six, a weekly column here during the 2023 season where I\u2019ll…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16732","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/demo.wztzfm.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16732","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/demo.wztzfm.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/demo.wztzfm.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/demo.wztzfm.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16732"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/demo.wztzfm.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16732\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/demo.wztzfm.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16732"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/demo.wztzfm.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16732"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/demo.wztzfm.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16732"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}No. 11 Tennessee<\/a> at Florida<\/a> (+6.5)<\/h2>\n
Kansas State<\/a> at Missouri<\/a> (+3.5)<\/h2>\n
Pittsburgh<\/a> at West Virginia<\/a> (-1)<\/strong><\/h2>\n
No. 7 Penn State<\/a> at Illinois<\/a> (+14.5)<\/h2>\n
Iowa State<\/a> at Ohio<\/a> (+3.5)<\/h2>\n
Upset Du Jour<\/strong><\/h2>\n
Syracuse<\/a> at Purdue<\/a> (+2.5)<\/h2>\n