As March Madness rolls into Sweet 16 odds, one of the most interesting developments is not about the Thursday-Friday eight-pack of games. Rather, at least for Caesars Sports, it\u2019s about the quantum shift over the past week in March Madness championship liabilities. In short, what was recently good is now bad, and vice-versa. “We\u2019ve written a third of our futures handle for the season in just the last week. And there\u2019s been a big swing ” Caesars college basketball trader Patrick Berbert said Wednesday afternoon. “St. John\u2019s is now our biggest liability to win the Tournament. “Before the Tournament, Michigan was one of our biggest liabilities, but now is one of our biggest winners.” Berbert and sharp college basketball bettor Paul Stone serve up their insights on March Madness Sweet 16 odds, heading into the second weekend of the biggest multi-day sports betting event in America. This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you sign up or place a wager, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports. Storm Brewing No. 5 seed St. John\u2019s is 30-6 straight up (SU) and 20-16 against the spread (ATS). Up next is a huge Friday night battle in D.C. vs. No. 1 seed Duke (34-2 SU\/20-16 ATS). As noted above, Rick Pitino\u2019s Red Storm have been a trendy pick over the past week to win the national title. Likewise, they\u2019re a popular play in Friday\u2019s first tipoff, at 7:10 p.m. ET. Caesars Sports opened Duke as a 6.5-point favorite and moved to -7 a couple of times. St. John\u2019s action moved it back to Blue Devils -6.5, where the line sits as of Wednesday afternoon. “Seven is the number where buyback has been,” Berbert said, while anticipating more St. John\u2019s money in the next 48 hours. “The Johnnies are gonna be the popular underdog, along with Arkansas. “I think we\u2019re gonna be supporting Duke, mainly because of our futures liability.” Berbert pointed out that the Blue Devils might have an overlooked advantage. “The game is at Capitol One in D.C,” he said. “Duke played there [Feb. 21] vs. Michigan, and it was a rowdy Duke fan base. I wouldn\u2019t be surprised if that\u2019s the case again.” The Blue Devils were 2.5-point underdogs and beat the then-No. 1 Wolverines 68-63. Dash for Cash No. 3 seed Illinois vs. No. 2 seed Houston is the last game on Thursday night, with a 10:05 p.m. ET start. It might not seem as attractive as St. John\u2019s-Duke, Michigan State-UConn or Arkansas-Arizona. But betting says otherwise. “Our biggest-bet game will be Illinois vs. Houston,” Berbert said. “Those are two high-profile teams, and with the shorter spread, it\u2019s gonna attract so many bettors.” Houston (30-6 SU\/18-18 ATS) opened as a 3-point favorite vs. Illinois (26-8 SU\/18-16 ATS). The line dipped to -2, then rebounded as high as -3.5. Caesars has the Cougars -3 as of Wednesday afternoon. “We got up to 3.5 once, and it didn\u2019t last very long,” Berbert said. “Three is gonna be the sweet \u00a0spot. I don\u2019t see this getting to four or back to two. “I think we\u2019re gonna see great two-way action.” March Madness Sharp Side Texas-based handicapper Paul Stone is getting involved with No. 11 Texas vs. No. 2 Purdue, the first game on the Sweet 16 oddsboard, at 7:10 p.m. ET Thursday. The Longhorns (21-14 SU\/19-15 ATS) are the only double-digit seed remaining, nabbing a First Four win over N.C. State, then beating BYU in the first round and stunning No. 3 seed Gonzaga in Round 2, 74-68. The Boilermakers (29-8 SU\/17-20 ATS) are 7.5-point favorites. Stone likes Texas to stay within the number. “Texas has really caught a second wind in the NCAA Tournament, playing its best basketball of the season,” Stone said. “The Longhorns have seen Matas Vokietaitis grow up right before their eyes.” Vokietaitis, a 7-foot center who transferred to Texas from Florida Atlantic, has totaled 55 points and 33 rebounds in the Longhorns’ three Tournament victories. The Longhorns are 11-5 ATS this season as the underdog. “If Vokietaitis can stay out of foul trouble, then I think Texas takes Purdue down to the wire,” Stone said. Sharp and Public \u2018Dog At 9:45 p.m. ET Thursday, it\u2019s No. 4 Arkansas (28-8 SU\/23-13 ATS) vs. No. 1 Arizona (34-2 SU\/24-14 ATS). As Berbert mentioned above, the Razorbacks are trendy underdogs. Caesars opened the Wildcats -8.5, dipped to -7.5 Tuesday afternoon and remained -7.5 as of Wednesday afternoon. “That\u2019s where the sharp bettors are telling us this is going. They like the \u2018dog here in Arkansas,” Berbert said, while also noting coach John Calipari\u2019s stout 12-3 ATS record in Sweet 16 games. “John Calipari in the Sweet 16 has been phenomenal against the spread. “I believe the public is gonna back Arkansas here, too. This will be a game where we\u2019re pulling for the favorite, and that doesn\u2019t happen too often.” Party Crashers A matchup of No. 9 Iowa vs. No. 4 Nebraska wasn\u2019t on anybody\u2019s card preseason, and probably still not there a week ago. But the border Big Ten rival Hawkeyes and Huskers square off at 7:30 p.m. ET Thursday. Nebraska (28-16 SU\/19-15 ATS) opened -3 vs. Iowa (23-12 SU\/20-15 ATS), even with the Hawkeyes coming off a shocking Round of 32 upset over No. 1 Florida, 73-72. “These are two of the feel-good stories of the year. Nebraska was unranked to start the season and picked to finish 10th or worse in the Big Ten,” Berbert said. And in eight previous NCAA Tournament trips, the Huskers were 0-8 SU. Now, they\u2019ve got two wins in a row. However, early action is leaning into the short underdog. “Bettors disagreed with Nebraska -3. Sharp action has taken us down to Nebraska -1.5. That 3 was too high,” Berbert said. “At 1.5, I think we\u2019re gonna see two-way action. With these two teams on a neutral court, I think it\u2019s close to a pick \u2018em.” Great Lakes Stakes The Big Ten not only has six of the final 16 teams, but two from the state of Michigan. And both play on Friday night. First up is No. 1 seed Michigan vs. No. 4 seed Alabama, at 7:35 p.m. ET. Caesars opened the Wolverines -10.5 and got bet down to Michigan -9.5 by Wednesday afternoon. “All year long with Michigan, we were always rooting for the \u2018dog. But this time, bettors are heavily invested in the 10-point underdog Alabama,” Berbert said. “I think we\u2019re gonna need Michigan.” Plus, as noted above, Michigan (33-3 SU\/16-20 AT) is a much better outcome than Alabama (25-9 SU\/16-18 ATS) in March Madness futures odds. At 9:45 p.m. ET, it\u2019s No. 3 seed Michigan State (27-7 SU\/19-15 ATS) vs. No. 2 seed UConn (31-5 SU\/14-22 ATS). Caesars opened the game at pick \u2018em and got as far as Huskies -2.5 on Monday, despite the Huskies being one of the worst spread-covering outfits in all college basketball. The line dipped to UConn -2 on Monday afternoon and remained there Wednesday afternoon. “Michigan State-UConn is seeing great two-way action at the 2,” Berbert said, while adding it\u2019s a noteworthy coaching matchup, too: the Spartans\u2019 Tom Izzo vs. the Huskies\u2019 Danny Hurley. “You\u2019ve got two phenomenal coaches here, going at it for 40 minutes.”<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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