With Akins and Hoggard back, Michigan State could be in the banner-hanging business again
With guards Jaden Akins and AJ Hoggard withdrawing from NBA Draft, and returning for the 2023-2024 season, Michigan State basketball coach Tom Izzo got his wish – the band is back together.
Izzo predicted as much during his season wrap-up press conference in mid-April. During that hour-long confab with media outlets, Michigan State’s Hall of Fame coach alluded to the likelihood of players testing the NBA waters as underclassmen entries in the NBA Draft. And while not ruling out the potential for unexpected roster attrition, Izzo made it clear that he expected the everyone but Joey Hauser back from the core group that powered Michigan State to a Sweet 16 last season.
Not long after that press conference, first Akins and then Hoggard entered the NBA Draft as underclassmen exploring their stock as NBA prospects, with eventual decisions to be made about remaining in the draft, or returning to Michigan State. On Wednesday morning, well before the midnight deadline for underclassmen to withdraw from the NBA Draft and retain college eligibility, news began to circulate that Akins and Hoggard, both of whom were instrumental in Michigan State’s Sweet 16 run last season, would be back as Spartans next season.
By keeping Akins and Hoggard for another year, Michigan State has an opportunity to build upon the momentum created by wins over Southern California and Marquette in the 2023 NCAA Tournament to reach the Sweet 16 and vastly outperform the preseason expectations for an unranked and overlooked ballclub going into the season. With experienced playmakers like Hoggard and Akins returning along with do-it-all guard Tyson Walker, and versatile fifth-year senior Malik Hall, as well as an influx of fresh energy from a four-man consensus Top 5 2023 recruiting class, Michigan State has the talent and depth necessary to contend for a Big Ten title, and to make a deep NCAA tournament run barring serious injuries. With this roster, a deep run in the NCAA Tournament means Final Four, or better.
Although expected return of Akins, Hoggard a big deal
A few years ago, Akins and Hoggard pulling out of the NBA Draft and returning to Michigan State may not have seemed like a big deal. Why, after all, wouldn’t two players return to the program that helped them develop into successful starters, after learning they were not likely to be drafted as high as they would have liked, or learning they were unlikely to be drafted at all. That was then, now the landscape in college athletics is far less predictable as the result of penalty-free transfer, the allure of greater financial compensation or personal visibility with NIL, and the additional fallback option of the NBA G-League.
Bottom line, basketball players have more options available now, as they strive to navigate a difficult path to fulfilling the dream of playing in the NBA against heavy odds. It doesn’t matter why players choose one option over another, or whether the rationale for doing so is sound. In the current environment, change simply for the sake of change is often the only impetus needed for thriving starter to change programs with little or no warning. Against that backdrop, Akins and Hoggard returning to Michigan State should be seen as a substantial win for the Spartan program and it’s numerous fans. Keeping those two starters at Michigan State should also be seen as evidence that the culture at Michigan State is strong enough to withstand the increasingly mercenary landscape of college sports.
Keeping Hoggard and Akins in the fold this off-season is a stark contrast to the attrition that Michigan State experienced a year ago. At that time, many Spartan fans openly criticized Izzo for his unwillingness to pursue transfer portal personnel to fill roster needs created when Julius Marble transferred to Texas A&M, Max Christie left for the NBA Draft, and both Gabe Brown and Marcus Bingham opted to try their luck in the G-League instead of taking advantage of an additional year of eligibility available as a result of the pandemic. Some of those critical of Michigan State sitting on the sidelines during the transfer derby, were undoubtedly impressed by the demo-and-rebuild approach that some Big Ten programs took last off-season. Those teams went all-in with transfers, while culling their own rosters of players deemed not worth the investment to develop. Izzo, by contrast, chose a different path for Michigan State, prioritizing team chemistry and program culture over change for the sake of change. Rather than tear down his roster, Izzo put faith in Hauser, Akins, Walker, Hoggard, Hall, and Mady Sissoko to help move Michigan State forward, public sentiment be damned.
The route taken by Michigan State may have seemed foolhardy or stubborn to many 12 months ago, and playing shorthanded nearly kneecapped the team when Akins and Hall were sidelined with respective foot injuries both last summer, and again during the season. Izzo’s decision to trust his roster to outperform outside expectations, however, proved to be the right one. The Spartans showed impressive growth in the face of adversity throughout the 2022-2023 season. They did so by leaning on each other, and surprised many as the last Big Ten team standing at the NCAA Tournament. Had Michigan State failed to make the NCAA Tournament field while playing with less than a full allotment of scholarship players, and had the the program’s Big Ten record of consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances streak ended last season, Izzo would have been disparaged as being both out of touch and unwilling to evolve with the game. Instead, Izzo went with his gut, and was rewarded following relying on his instincts.
In returning to Michigan State, Akins and Hoggard have signaled that they trust Izzo to help them develop as NBA prospects. By returning to the Spartan program they are also effectively asserting that team and individual goals can be achieved through the same process. Beyond strengthening the culture of the Michigan State program, the return Akins and Hoggard gives Michigan State a realistic opportunity to hang more banners from the already crowded rafters at the Breslin center. Together with Walker and Hall, Akins and Hoggard are part of formidable nucleus of proven veteran playmakers. With those battle-tested veterans back, Michigan State has leadership, experience, and proven scoring ability along with a large contingent of promising freshmen, second-year players ready to make a big jump, and a still-developing older player in Mady Sissoko, who may still be just scratching the surface of his potential, after coming out of nowhere last season. Simply put, Michigan State appears to be in its best position to hang banners since Cassius Winston, Xavier Tillman, and company won three consecutive Big Ten regular-season championships, made a run to the 2019 Final Four, and had a real chance to win a national championship in 2020 before the pandemic robbed Michigan State of a post-season.
Buy-in, accepting roles, critical for deeper Michigan State team
The biggest challenge for Izzo and his staff next season will be keeping everybody on a much deeper, more talented roster happy. With Hauser gone, Michigan State has a pressing need for a reliable face-up four, a longtime staple in Izzo’s offense. Right now, Hall appears to be the best candidate to fill a starting role at the four, with five-star freshman Xavier Booker likely to fille a back-up role.
But how many minutes can each of those players play at the same position? And if, for example, Booker earns an increasing amount of minutes at the four as he gains experience, does Hall then play more minutes at the three to keep his minutes up? And If the number of minutes Hall is playing at the three increases, does the number of minutes that Akins plays at the three decrease?
Along similar lines, will Michigan State cut into Walker’s minutes at the two to insure that Akins plays as many minutes as he would like at the three?
Then there is the issue of point guard minutes. At point guard, how does Michigan State keep a McDonald’s All-American in Jeremy Fears happy in a back-up role behind Hoggard? And if Fears’ minutes increase along with his experience, will Hoggard be willing to play fewer minutes overall?
On and on it goes.
At this point, potential what-if scenarios are of little importance. During the season, however, when what-if’s become reality, so to does the potential threat to team chemistry, which was good last season and factored into Michigan State’s ability to overcome adversity.
Izzo has dealt with issues like this throughout his Hall of Fame career, and the potential headache that comes with dispersing playing time and assigning roles, is worth the trouble given that quality depth puts the Spartans in a much better position to hang banners than they were in a year ago. A deep team with good athleticism at every position has a higher the ceiling, than a team that falls short in depth and talent. With Hoggard and Akins, Michigan State has the talent and depth necessary to compete for championships.
There is a catch, however. If Michigan State is going to win its first Big Ten title since 2020 or make a Final Four run for the first time since 2019, the Spartans need individuals who are willing to accept their roles and play those roles to the best of their ability regardless of whether those roles match the expectations that player had for themselves going into the season.
Without teamwide buy-in from starters down to walk-ons, Michigan State will likely fall short of the championship goals that will undoubtedly be set by players and coaches alike. The good news for Michigan State is that with so many experienced veterans returning, leadership at the player level should be strong, and if that is indeed the case, team chemistry should remain a strength. For that to happen guys like Hall, Walker, Akins, and Hoggard must embrace their roles as guides for Michigan State’s underclassmen. That is a task that older players at Michigan State have willingly taken on over the years during Izzo’s tenure. With their decision to return to the Spartan program, Hoggard and Akins now have every bit as big a leadership stake as Hall, who has been at Michigan State the longest.
Beyond the athleticism and shooting ability of Akins or the passing skills of Hoggard that make everyone around him better, having two proven veterans back that can contribute as leaders and help newcomers navigate the challenges built into a program that demands more than most, is something that can keep Michigan State in the banner-hanging hunt this year, and for years to come.
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