Will SMU come out a conference realignment winner?
SMU is awaiting the next round of conference realignment. What follows Colorado’s move to the Big 12 will be a key moment in the future of college athletics.
As the Big 12 reportedly courts Arizona, Arizona State and Utah and the Big Ten reportedly evaluates whether or not to expand with Cal, Oregon, Stanford and Washington. Even the ACC has again been in the conversation around conference realignment lately, centering around Florida State and Clemson’s unhappiness.
SMU continues to work angles to prepare for just about every scenario.
As fall camps around the country begin, something that seemingly has been going on for decades now continues — conference realignment discussions.
From SMU’s angle, the few folks that will speak on things reiterate confidence that if expansion comes for the Pac-12, SMU will be included. The school’s been involved long enough with these discussions, dating much before George Kliavkoff’s visit to the Hilltop. If there was an indication the league wouldn’t want SMU if it expands, there’s a good chance we’d hear about it.
But despite that confidence, nothing is guaranteed. That’s why SMU President R. Gerald Turner continues to circle the wagons as he and Chairman of the Board of Trustees David B. Miller navigate realignment.
Those two are the leaders of the push with help from consultants as well as other trustees. Miller and a key SMU benefactor lunched on Wednesday, discussing angles of TV media rights deals, the impact it’d have on SMU and what are the next best steps as uncertainty clouds the future of the Pac-12.
There’s also the push of what if SMU gets left out? Key benefactors and donors are critical to the program’s high level of play for the future. To be relevant and not in a Power Five conference requires resources.
Turner and Miller continue to keep people aligned. There’s lots to be done to ensure a bright future. That’s why the continued support of the football program is also paramount. Many continue to beat the drum that this is a key goal for the school — win big in football.
Where SMU pursues that future is up to these other leagues, not as much the school anymore.
Conference realignment hinges on Pac-12 TV deal
It’s nothing groundbreaking, but the Pac-12 holding together or not could dictate SMU’s immediate future. Hold together and expand, and SMU is expected to be in. Break apart and get blown up by another wave of conference realignment, and SMU is either joining a pillaged league (which could be a raise in TV dollars) or sitting tight in the American.
Those appear to be the logical options.
What’s past logical is how to decipher what is going on with Kliavkoff and his television deal. He reportedly presented a largely streaming deal centered around Apple TV+ and one that includes escalators for hitting certain marks.
One source close to the discussions did share the escalators could begin around $20 million and go to at least $60 million, but it’s all based on subscription numbers and advertising dollars coming together to create enough revenue. Predicting the future is not easy with subscriptions.
ESPN is inching closer toward pushing more streaming into its future. Apple TV+ is all in that direction, aided by its pursuit of MLS. Will a shift to streaming be supercharged by a college conference making the move?
That’s up to the colleges to assess. With another meeting reportedly planned, it seems like it wasn’t enough, at the moment.
Will this deal get across the finish line? It’s risky, but it’s bold. That might not be enough for leaders at Pac-12 schools.
Colorado had enough and left, egging on a reality that more could defect. Kliavkoff was confident he’d keep the league together, but now he’s lost one. If the deal doesn’t get to a point that minimizes risk enough for schools, things could go south fast.
SMU’s chances lie in the media deal though. No deal and the league splinters further. The deal has to happen to give SMU a boost.
Where does SMU fit in conference wise in future?
Whether or not the Pac-12 falls apart, merges with another conference, or sticks together, conference realignment isn’t over. The unexpected can hit in the future, too. ACC schools are already split in how to handle the league’s future with its Grant of Rights and long TV deal, and there’s no guarantee that league holds together once it’s up for negotiations.
The Big Ten and SEC will be hovering, potentially. That means more chaos is ahead and we don’t even know the future of the NCAA.
What SMU does have in its favor is support. The schools has donors that have invested heavily in facilities like Armstrong Fieldhouse and the Garry Weber EndZone Complex. Another faction has invested in NIL support. SMU’s a leader in that regard.
So as a storm brews around realignment and it seems like it’s hailing on the Pac-12 TV deal, SMU’s built to weather it. The school’s taken it on the chin a couple times through the years in terms of realignment.
What has the university done? Invested, doubled down, and more. It’s later than it should’ve been and maybe this round doesn’t yield that gift of a Power Five invite. It seems like that’s on the Pac-12 for their shortcomings.
I don’t know if the Pac-12 TV deal will end up good enough. If it does, that should mean good news for SMU. If it doesn’t, the school will do what it’s done in the past, double down.
With an easier path to reach the College Football Playoff for Group of Five teams approved, that’s a positive. If SMU’s gotta be the best of the rest, the team’s supported enough to do that.
SMU’s worked the Pac-12, ACC and Big 12. The Big 12 is a pipe dream right now. The Pac-12 is what’s expected, if it holds. The ACC would be the surprise landing spot that SMU most desires.
When the next round of conference realignment strikes, the goal is to be the easy choice. Right now, SMU’s a good, expected choice for the Pac-12. Unlike the Pac-12 TV deal, SMU’s trying to make next round of realignment easy.
Whether they’re looking to move up from the AAC or up from the Pac-12, that remains to be seen. Right now, we wait for a TV deal or chaos.
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