Which are the toughest and easiest games on Penn State’s 2023 schedule?

Penn State opens the 2023 regular season at home against West Virginia. It ends it with a trip to Ford Field in Detroit, Mich., to battle Michigan State. In between, the Lions will face a mixture of Big Ten foes and non-conference opponents at home and on the road.

Who are the most challenging and least formidable opponents the team will face in head coach James Franklin’s tenth season in State College? We rank the foes below from easiest to hardest. Factors considered include teams’ strengths and weaknesses, where each contest falls on the schedule, and when it will be played.

12. Delaware

The Blue Hens are coming off of an 8-5 2022 season and must replace some key pieces on both sides of the ball. Ryan Carty, a Delaware alum, enters his second season at the helm of the FCS program. Penn State will be an enormous favorite for this home contest at Beaver Stadium.

11. Massachusetts

There is no polite way to put this: The Minutemen are terrible. ESPN’s SP+ ranks the Independent program No. 131 out of 133 FBS programs. Penn State could be about a 40-point favorite for this October matchup in State College. UMass will fight hard on the road, but the Lions will be fine-tuned by the second month of the season and roll with ease.

10. Rutgers

Greg Schiano enters the fourth season of his second stint at Rutgers. He has yet to have a winning season in Piscataway since returning to the program in 2020. The Scarlet Knights were 4-8 a year ago. Former Penn State offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca takes over the offense, and he must find a quarterback and receivers, and some consistency on that side of the ball. Defensively, the Big Ten East should be fine, but it shouldn’t be much of a challenge for what is expected to be a high-flying Nittany Lions attack.

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9. Northwestern

Pat Fitzgerald starts his 18th season at Northwestern in 2023. It has been a rough go of late for the Wildcats. The Big Ten West program has won just four games over the last two seasons and was 1-11 in 2022. David Braun takes over the defense and the offense picked up a pair of transfer receivers. But, quarterback play is a question mark. Even on the road, Penn State should be at least a two-score favorite in its final contest of September.

8. Indiana

Tom Allen is back for his seventh season in Bloomington. Indiana won at least five games in his first four seasons but the Hoosiers have won just six over the last two years. The team is in search of a new quarterback, with either Tennessee transfer Tayven Jackson or redshirt freshman Brendan Sorsby set to take the reigns. The Big Ten East team does not look to be overpowering on either side of the ball and should be a big underdog at Beaver Stadium.

7. West Virginia

The Mountaineers invade Beaver Stadium for a primetime kickoff on NBC Sept. 2. Penn State is listed as a 16.5-point favorite and that number will likely climb as kickoff approaches. This game would have been higher on our list if it wasn’t the opener. The Lions will be breaking in numerous new starters, including the likely debut for Drew Allar under center, and West Virginia will want to run, which could keep the game closer than expected. We don’t see PSU having any problem dispatching its first non-conference foe of the year, but all the newness may make this game a bit more challenging than anticipated.

6. Iowa

Penn State welcomes Iowa to town for its annual White Out game. Beaver Stadium will be rocking and sold out for the primetime clash on CBS. The Lions will have revenge on their minds after losing to the Hawkeyes on the road in their last meeting back in 2021. Michigan transplant Cade McNamara is expected to start under center with hopes of putting a charge into what has been a paltry Hawkeyes offense of late. Iowa tends to play the Lions tough, but this game shouldn’t feature too many roadblocks for the home team.

5. Maryland

Penn State kicks off November with a road trip to Maryland. The Terps made some moves in the transfer portal but also had numerous defections to it this offseason. Mike Locksley started year five with the school by getting quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa back for a final season. He’ll need the signal caller to take the team’s offense to new heights if the Terps want to pull off some upsets in the Big Ten East. ESPN’s FPI gives the program just a 25 percent chance of beating Penn State. We think that number could be a bit lower by the final month of the regular season.

4. Illinois

Penn State’s first road test comes in Week 4 when it travels to Illinois for a matchup on FOX’s ‘BIG Noon Kickoff.’ Bret Bilema starts year three with the Fighting Illini. His team loses a lot, including star running back Chase Brown, standout corner Devon Witherspoon, and a couple of key offensive linemen, among other pieces. The portal brought some positive additions to the Big Ten West program, but this game being away from home is the only reason why it sits at this spot on our list.

3. Michigan State

The Spartans figure to be floating just above bowl eligibility by the time they battle the Lions at Ford Field in both team’s regular season finale. So, why do we put Michigan State here? For starters, ESPN’s FPI gives Penn State’s its third-lowest win percentage likelihood in this contest. But, there’s also the uncertainty of what the Lions will be playing for.

A trip to the Big Ten title game could be on the line. Or, maybe by then, the team will simply be playing for a New Year’s Six bowl game spot that isn’t one of the two college football semifinals. Throw in the neutral site, and it being on a Friday and not Saturday, and it has all the makings of a game that might be more difficult when it’s played than it currently looks like it will be on paper for any number of reasons. Motivation, though, is a primary one that could impact both sides.

2. Michigan

While there are always arguments to be made about how the first 10 spots on a list like this should be filled, there is little debate about who should take the top two. This year, Michigan checks in as the runner-up simply because Penn State faces its Big Ten East foe at home. The Wolverines are locked and loaded for another College Football Playoff run under Jim Harbaugh. JJ McCarthy is back under center and has a dynamic backfield behind him with Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards. Throw in a defense that returns half of its starters from a year ago, and Michigan will again be a team that the Lions will be underdogs too, in all likelihood. But, with a home crowd at its back, Franklin’s team will have a built-in advantage as it tries to topple a program it’s lost consecutive contests to.

1. Ohio State

The Buckeyes are again seen as one of the top programs in college football. Penn State travels to Columbus in October, and oddsmakers call the Lions a 10.5-point underdog already. Head coach Ryan Day’s team returns star power all over, but there is a question mark about the transition at quarterback. Expect OSU to be just fine, though, and rolling on all cylinders when PSU rolls into town.

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