What this year’s Phil Steele mag has to say about South Carolina
Some may consider next week’s SEC Media Days as the unofficial start to the new college football season but in this household, that day is marked with the moment the latest edition of Phil Steele arrives on the shelves.
The annual magazine, jam-packed with insights on every program in the country, hit bookstores and mailboxes late last week, and as always Steele and his team had plenty to say about South Carolina football.
Below we take a look at some of the notables.
Predicted SEC finish
South Carolina and the rest of the league get their first look at a 16-team SEC as the Gamecocks once again have one of the toughest schedules in the country (more on that later), albeit one that doesn’t include usual annual foes Georgia, Florida or Tennessee.
Steele has Carolina finishing in the bottom half of the league but perhaps a notch higher than some other projections, with another caveat: the Gamecocks are part of a three-way tie.
The magazine has the Gamecocks finishing tied with Kentucky and Auburn for 11th in the league.
As if any additional evidence was needed that the Week 2 matchup with the Wildcats is a likely key swing game for both teams — we previously pointed out that ESPN’s FPI has the two teams virtually identical — Steele has them finishing at the same spot in his projected league finish.
With Alabama, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, LSU, and Missouri on the schedule, the magazine has Carolina with the third-toughest schedule in the league (among league games), but all nine of his power ratings do have the Gamecocks making a bowl and on the list of “most improved” in the country.
Steele has Georgia and Texas tied at the top of the league (Alabama and Ole Miss are next) with Mississippi State and Vanderbilt at the bottom (in that order).
Most improved rushing attack?
The expectation locally in Columbia is that South Carolina should have a much-improved rushing attack in 2024 but it’s also always worth tracking the national expectations as well for added context.
The magazine, crediting the additions of Rocket Sanders, Oscar Adaway, and Jawarn Howell, has South Carolina with the most improved rushing attack in the country year-over-year.
Steele also mentions the added dynamic of a big, physical runner at quarterback in LaNorris Sellers and that even though the offensive line is still a question, it should be improved over last year’s heavily injured group.
The Gamecocks entered last season with a backfield duo of wide-receiver-turned-running-back Dakereon Joyner and Newberry transfer Mario Anderson and continued a trend of rushing for fewer yards each season than the season before since 2020, as Steele points out.
After rushing for 122 yards per game last year, Steele’s algorithm calls for that number to double in 2024.
“This goes from a weakness to a strength as long as Sanders can stay healthy,” Steele says.
Unit rankings
The running back trio mentioned above is part of an RB room that the magazine ranks fifth in the SEC, tied for the highest ranking for any South Carolina unit in the SEC.
Interestingly, the magazine gives Carolina the benefit of the doubt in some position groups that have lower expectations locally, while also taking a wait-and-see approach on others that are maybe considered more solidified from a local standpoint — of course, the strength of the rest of the league at each particular position has to be considered and that’s the context that does sometimes get lost when following a team from an in-depth, hyperlocalized perspective.
South Carolina’s much-improved (we think) defensive line and linebacker groups are ranked 7th and 6th, respectively, in the 16-team league. That’s probably fair and would be a step up from last year but it’s somewhat surprising that those units aren’t ranked as highly in the league as the defensive back unit.
The DB group, which features returners Nick Emmanwori, Jalon Kilgore, DQ Smith, and OD Fortune, is given the benefit of the doubt as the No. 5 DB unit in the SEC. Of course, if the Gamecocks get the step-up they need from some combination of Judge Collier, Vicari Swain, Emory Floyd and freshman Jalewis Solomon, that could prove to be accurate.
The wide receiver room also gets the benefit of the doubt, checking in at No. 9 in the SEC despite being the position group I have the most questions about on the entire team. Steele, who also factors recruiting rankings into his lists, is likely crediting a big jump from former five-star Nyck Harbor as well as all the production the Gamecocks added from the transfer portal. Locally, things are far more wait-and-see about how that unit will actually shake out.
If you’re looking for a reason for optimism, Steele has South Carolina as one of his most improved teams even with a quarterback group that’s tied for 11th in the SEC and an offensive line he deems 13th, worst on the team.
That 11 number at QB seems to be a place-holder for all the schools breaking in a new quarterback. That’s fair given Sellers’ inexperience but given his upside and potential and the local expectations for him, there could be the potential for considerable upward mobility in those rankings at that position — which would obviously mean a lot for the overall upside of this team.
The hopes of this team may once again hinge on how much the offensive line has improved, which is a sentence we’ve definitely said before.
Six on preseason All-SEC list
Six South Carolina football players were named to Phil Steele’s 2024 Preseason All-SEC Teams.
LS Hunter Rogers (first team)
Long snapper Hunter Rogers was the Gamecocks’ lone first-team All-SEC selection, according to Steele. Rogers also earned a spot on the publication’s preseason second-team All-America squad. Running back Raheim “Rocket” Sanders, linebacker Debo Williams, safety Nick Emmanwori and punter Kai Kroeger headlined Steele’s second-team All-SEC unit, while defensive tackle Tonka Hemingway was placed on the fourth team unit.
Rogers, a 6-2, 203-pound redshirt senior from Columbia, S.C., has been the Gamecocks’ long snapper since taking over those duties midway through the 2021 season. He was a first-team All-SEC selection by the league’s coaches in 2023.
RB Rocket Sanders (second team)
Sanders, a 6-2, 225-pound senior transfer from the University of Arkansas, was a first-team All-SEC pick by the AP following the 2022 season in which he rushed for 1,443 yards for the Razorbacks. The Rockledge Fla., product was limited to just six games last season due to injury.
LB Debo Williams (second team)
Williams, a 6-1, 235-pound senior from Symrna, Del., earned first-team All-SEC honors in 2023 after leading the Gamecocks with 113 tackles, including 9.0 tackles for loss. The 2023 Joe Morrison Award winner as the MVP of the defense and a Rex Enright team captain, Williams’ 113 tackles ranked third in the SEC and were the most for a Gamecock since 2002.
S Nick Emmanwori (second team)
Emmanwori, a 6-3, 218-pound junior from Irmo, S.C., was a Freshman All-American in 2022. He has logged 156 tackles in his two seasons for the Garnet & Black, starting 23 of the 24 games in which he has appeared.
P Kai Kroeger (second team)
Kroeger, a 6-4, 213-pound “super” senior returns for his fifth year as the Gamecocks’ punter. The Lake Forest, Ill., native earned All-America honors in 2022 and is averaging 43.9 yards per punt during his career, with 48 punts of 50 yards or more including three of 70-plus yards.
DL Tonka Hemingway (fourth team)
Hemingway, a 6-3, 295-pound “super” senior from Conway, S.C., has appeared in all 48 games over the past four seasons with 17 starts. A standout both on and off the field, Hemingway was presented with the Harold White GPA Award for the defense and with the Gamecock Toughness Award for the defense at the 2024 Garnet & Black Spring Game.
Bios from USC Media Relations
The bottom line
After facing the No. 5 toughest schedule in the country last year, Steele’s metrics have this year’s slate as just the 32nd toughest, a huge surprise considering how brutal it appears on paper.
That “easier” schedule is part of the reason that the magazine has South Carolina in the “going up” category with an 81 percent chance of having the same or better record than last season and as the No. 14 “most improved” team in the country.
But as he also mentioned, Carolina may be the underdog going into eight games this season so even an improved record from last year’s 5-7 tally may not be quite to the standard Gamecock fans are looking for.
But with a more experienced team and a projected improved running game, Steele does ultimately predict the Gamecocks to go over the Vegas 5.5 win total number and get back to bowl eligibility.
What are the chances of a truly special season? South Carolina is not among his listed most likely “surprise” teams for the year but there are two outliers within his nine sets of power ratings that do have the Gamecocks going 9-3, which would likely make them the surprise darling of the league.
And would likely mean that Sellers excelled from the jump, that the new-look (and healthy) offensive line took a major step forward, and that Sanders looked like the running back who was arguably the second-best back in the league in 2022.
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