What is the floor and ceiling for USC’s 2024’s class in the rankings?
Essentially all of the recruiting landscape is in a lull right now with it being the dead period. There are some commitments firing off around the country, but only sparingly for the next couple of weeks. For USC, this time is to have some reflection on the wild month that was June and use this slow period to regroup and identify what is needed to finish out this class over the next six months.
With 17 commitments in the fold for the Trojans, it is likely we will not see too many more pledges in the coming months. My guess is USC will add 5-6 more commitments to this class, not counting transfer portal additions following the season.
So, with a current No. 6 class ranking and limited spots to go, not only with USC, but with many top ranked teams, what can expect the floor and ceiling to be for this class?
These are purely just thoughts on the current outlook on the class. It is important to understand there is still a full season to be played which means there will be decommitment’s all over the country, new offers, change of plans, etc.
The Floor
I think the floor of this class is much simpler to predict or justify at this time. In modern recruiting, classes are beginning to fill up in the summer, rather than during the season or near signing day. Because many top ranked classes have 17+ commitments, schools know nearly all of what they will bring in. Never say never, but I don’t anticipate USC getting the decommit bug this cycle, so drastic drops do not appear to be in the future.
My outlook right now is that the floor is No. 10. The 2023 class for USC was ranked No. 9 and I think that’s what this class’ low point is looking like.
With some top ranked prospects still on the board for USC, they have chances to at least maintain their No. 5-6 ranking as they have over the past few weeks.
Many of the schools in the 10-12 spots behind USC right now have strong classes but many also have between 12-16 commitments. Moving up that many spots while USC will also be taking in some commitments, several schools would have to go on red-hot runs to push USC out of the top-10.
While it is possible, I don’t see the Trojans dropping that far.
The Ceiling
This is the tough one to handicap. Like I said before, USC has most of what their class will as do the schools ahead of them in spots 1-5. For reference, Georgia (1) has 26 commitments and Michigan (5) has 25.
As of right now, I see the ceiling for USC being No. 3. However, I think it is more likely they finish between 4-6.
With likely only a handful of commitments for USC before signing day, those additions are going to have be some special ones to move up more than one or two spots. Georgia and Ohio State are solidified at the No. 1 and 2 spots right now with a nice lead over the rest. Alabama will make a run, with only 12 pledges right now, and ranked No. 4.
USC will surely have to add the likes of Taylor Tatum and Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa to move up. Prospects like four-star linebacker Chris Cole or four-star tackle Fox Crader (Oregon commit), would also help in progressing this class.
But to reach the ceiling of this class would require the likes of five-star wide receiver Mike Matthews, elite defensive lineman Aydin Breland, or Top-100 safety Peyton Woodyard (Georgia commit). All still possible, but not favored currently.
USC could get some help though from other classes. The Trojans adding names is not the only way. Other schools losing names also goes a long way. A program like Florida, who is ranked No. 3 right now, is in the boat of potentially losing some names if a bad season occurs. It is a common thing every year with a handful of teams.
If someone drops out, USC may be one to move up.
The current class for USC
To date, the 17 commitments in the 2024 class are West Hills (CA) Chaminade High four-star safety Marquis Gallegos, Arlington (Tex.) Martin offensive lineman Makai Saina, Long Beach (Calif.) Millikan four-star wide receiver Ryan Pellum, Clearwater (Fla.) Academy International four-star interior offensive lineman Jason Zandamela, Bellflower (Calif.) St. John Bosco four-star cornerback Marcelles Williams, Hiram (Ga.) four-star tight end Walter Matthews, Gardena (Calif.) Junipero Serra four-star cornerback Dakoda Fields, Los Angeles (Cal.) Sierra Canyon four-star Xavier Jordan, Atlanta (Ga.) Washington four-star EDGE Kameryn Fountain, Lake Oswego (Ore.) Lakeridge four-star tight end Joey Olsen, Modesto (Calif.) Central Catholic four-star offensive tackle Manesse Itete, Clearwater (Fla.) four-star safety Jarvis Boatwright Jr., McKinney (Tex.) three-star running back Bryan Jackson, Clearwater (Fla.) four-star safety Jarvis Boatwright Jr., Landisville (Pa.) Hempfield defensive lineman Deyvid Palepale, Humble (Tex.) Atascocita defensive back Braylon Conley, and Englewood (CO) Cherry Creek three-star offensive lineman Hayden Treter.
Also, as of right now, there are six prospects in the class of 2024 who are currently favored in the On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine to land with USC.
The Trojans hosted more than 30 official visitors in the month of June, primarily scheduled for two major visit weekends. There was major success in the month as the class added 13 commitments.
USC finished the 2023 class ranked inside the top-10 and Lincoln Riley and staff have started off on the right foot with an opportunity to repeat that feat in the 2024 class. They are even on pace to finish with a top-5 class.
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