What are the linchpin games for Ole Miss football in 2024? At LSU is one.

Ole Miss has won 10 games or more — and appeared in a pair of New Year’s Six bowls — in two of the last three seasons.

Such an output for the Rebels in 2024 would all but assure a spot in the expanded College Football Playoff.

The schedule sets up nicely, too. Ole Miss will get its four non-conference games out of the way before October. The Rebels have an extra week off during its SEC gauntlet as a result.

Each team gets two byes this year, meaning Ole Miss has two open Saturdays in the final seven weeks.

“I actually think they can make the playoff without beating Georgia,” On3 national analyst Andy Staples said of the Rebels last week. “I do think they have to win at LSU. That game this year is probably the linchpin game. They haven’t beaten LSU in Baton Rouge since 2008.

“It’s just been a house of horrors for them.”

Ole Miss isn’t playing Alabama or Auburn next season for the first time in over 30 years. The Rebels don’t get Texas A&M either, while the Egg Bowl has moved to midday on Black Friday instead of its usual Thanksgiving night.

“Oklahoma, can’t drop that one,” fellow On3 national analyst JD PicKell said. “New to the SEC; you’ve got to get that one, especially the week after LSU. Classic letdown spot.

“Could we be in a world where Ole Miss is sitting at nine wins heading into the Swamp? I mean, we’ve seen some good teams walk into (Florida) and not come out the same or not look the same.

“If you get to 10, we kind of agree that’s probably about what you need to get to the playoff or at least have a fighting chance. Those are two big swing games.”

Ole Miss hosts Oklahoma October 26.

“When you look at the rosters Ole Miss has on the schedule compared to what they have in-house, they really probably should be at least a nine-win football team,” PicKell said. “LSU’s tough. Georgia’s tough. But if you handle business and take care of the games you’re supposed to take care of, you should be at least nine wins and fighting to be in that 10-win range. You get to 10 wins, you’re probably making the College Football Playoff.

“We know what Ole Miss is going to be. It’s how good can they be with a really high floor going into 2024.”

The Rebels’ 11 wins a year ago were a program record. They return, among others, third-year starting quarterback Jaxson Dart, star receivers Tre Harris and Jordan Watkins, tight end Caden Prieskorn, offensive linemen Jeremy James, Caleb Warren and Micah Pettus, and defensive linemen Jared Ivey and JJ Pegues.

Ole Miss used two portal windows to land the nation’s No. 3 transfer class. Texas A&M defensive tackle Walter Nolen was ranked as the No. 2 overall transfer. Florida EDGE Princely Umanmielen was in the Top 10.

“Now it’s time to ascend the staircase just a little bit more,” Staples said. “The schedule does set up nicely for them. If they beat Georgia in the regular season, they’re going to Atlanta.”

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