Warchant Roundtable: Discussing Florida State, the ACC and possible future homes in SEC, Big Ten
Now that we’re a few days past the ACC spring meetings, it’s time to give more thought to Florida State’s future in the Atlantic Coast Conference and whether the Seminoles will end up leaving for the SEC or Big Ten.
In this edition of the Warchant Roundtable, we’ll get opinions from site founder and administrator Gene Williams, managing editor Ira Schoffel, senior writer Corey Clark and video/radio host Jeff Cameron.
There’s also an accompanying video featuring Williams, Schoffel and director of original content Tom Lang. You can watch that video right here:
Q: What do you take from Michael Alford’s glowing comments about the ACC last week? Does it change anything in your mind regarding FSU’s future in the ACC?
GENE: I understand the motivation to play nice with the ACC after what might have been some contentious meetings in Amelia Island. That said, the over-the-top praise was a rare misstep for FSU’s athletic director. He could have made more generic positive comments without using words like, “really thrilled.” It’s patently obvious that Florida State is far from thrilled about its current standing in the ACC.
Does it change anything? Not really. Alford has made it very clear — multiple times — that the status quo in the ACC is untenable if FSU hopes to maintain its standing as a top-tier athletic program. The fact that Alford & Company have been able to recruit several other ACC schools to work toward a permanent solution to the conference revenue crisis is encouraging.
JEFF: It does not change anything in my mind, either. It seems inevitable that Florida State and others will have to make some kind of push to exit the league long before the Grant of Rights has expired. In order to negotiate the best possible deal for FSU, it would appear Alford chose to play nice publicly with his comments after a behind-the-scenes airing of the grievances. Admittedly, “We’re very thrilled about being in this league and we want to stay.” is a bit much for me to stomach, but I’ll attribute that quote and others like it to wanting to cultivate an air of collaboration.
COREY: Not really. I feel like he’s playing nice publicly, but the entire conference — the commissioner, the ADs, the presidents, the coaches — all know where he stands. The ACC is not competitive, from a financial sense, in the only sport that really matters anymore. And Alford is the athletics director at one of the few schools in the conference that truly cares about football. He wants out. Or he wants a much bigger piece of the pie. My guess is he’s going to wait to go scorched earth until he sees just what exactly the uneven revenue distribution suggestion is in the next few weeks/months. But I don’t think anyone in that fancy hotel changed his mind about the future of this sport and what FSU needs to be competitive.
IRA: Yeah, I agree with everyone else. I think things were very contentious during the first day of meetings and the ACC was taking such a black eye because of the report about schools holding secret meetings that Alford tried to help Commissioner Jim Phillips save face. And in that effort, he went a little overboard. But no, it doesn’t change anything at all. The issues are still the issues, and the revenue gap is still the revenue gap.
Q: Assuming FSU still wants out of the ACC, what are the next steps to move forward toward that goal?
COREY: Get an offer from one of the two big conferences. Get those wheels in motion. The Big Ten should be sprinting to Tallahassee and Clemson to try to get those two schools in the conference. That would make the Big Ten a true equal competitor with the SEC. And the SEC knows that, which could perhaps start a bidding war between the two juggernauts. I think the only way this gets resolved is with one of those conferences — and the corresponding TV partner — ponying up a lot of dollars to get it done. Or, and maybe this is more feasible from a legal standpoint, work behind the scenes with the Big 12 to find landing spots for the other non-SEC type programs in the conference.
Prove to those university presidents that it’s worth it to leave the sinking ship sooner rather than later, and if that happens, then the conference is in real danger of dissolving. Whether they leave or not doesn’t really matter, just the threat of it might be good enough to allow FSU and Clemson out the door before everything is completely blown up. Or, maybe leave a horse head in Jim Phillips’ bed? So many options!
IRA: I believe they’ve already started taking steps. They’ve made it clear to the rest of the conference that they aren’t going to sit and wallow in despair until 2036, and they’ve been meeting with other schools to discuss possible solutions. In a perfect world, enough schools will agree to dissolve the conference and let the chips fall where they may. If that doesn’t happen, I think FSU’s leaders have already been working on alternative solutions — it’s why they have sent multiple attorneys up to ACC headquarters to review the Grant of Rights and the media contracts. They want to make sure all their ducks are in a row. The next step is figuring out which schools are willing to take action and which ones aren’t, and then act accordingly. What exactly FSU does next likely will depend on who is going to join the exodus if the ACC and/or ESPN are unwilling to make substantial changes. But no matter how it shakes out, I don’t think it’s going to be a long time before we see things start to unfold.
GENE: As Ira said, the first step is to recruit enough like-minded schools to be able to make fundamental changes to the structure of the conference. From the stories that broke last week about “The Magnificent Seven,” that step seems to be under way. It’s now up to the leaders of this movement, presumably FSU and Clemson, to galvanize university presidents and boards to back a change within the ACC. That could mean anything from terminating the grant of rights, working together to find landing spots for schools at other conferences, or just flat-out breaking up the ACC. Whatever the next move is, there needs to be enough schools that are unified to initiate real change. Right now, it sounds more like a loose coalition of schools.
JEFF: Lawyers, guns and money. Sorry, that was too easy, and I wanted a reason to quote Warren Zevon. Real answer: Keep winning, find your best landing spot, and buckle up for a bumpy legal challenge.
Q: Considering ACC schools will be falling behind $30 million to $40 million per year compared to schools in the Big Ten and SEC, how long before that ditch gets too big to climb out of? And what’s a realistic timeline for FSU to leave the conference for greener pastures?
JEFF: I think FSU, given its history and locale, will always be able to compete at a fairly high level in football. The Olympic sports will suffer greatly the further the revenue gap grows. And long-term, if you’re trying to win national championships in football, and you are, this situation is untenable. I would think an exit in the next two to three years is necessary to avoid a long-term bout of underwhelming campaigns.
COREY: I don’t think the ditch would ever get too big to climb out of. Not permanently anyway. Once FSU gets equal footing with the SEC and Big Ten — whether that’s in 2026 or 2036 — it wouldn’t take long for Florida State to catch back up. It’s Florida State. It’s not going away forever. But, I think if nothing changes in the next five years, and all these SEC schools — including your biggest rival — have accrued literally 120-150 million more dollars than you in that span, well, that’s going to show up on the field. In a big way. It will be a ditch. A big one. But it won’t be impossible to climb out of eventually. And I think a realistic timeline for FSU to be in another conference is 3-4 years. I’m not predicting that, but I could see it happening by then. I do wonder how much the new playoff format will change things. And maybe expedite the expansion for these other conferences.
GENE: Until recently, the feeling was that FSU would eventually figure a way out of the ACC’s Grant of Rights in maybe the next five to 10 years, when the price tag to leave became more manageable. That changed when Michael Alford sounded off to the Board of Trustees in February about the ACC revenue disparity. He made it clear that FSU athletics, really football, could not remain competitive at a high level for long given the financial limitations imposed by the ACC.
A realistic timeline is the million-dollar question since the question no longer seems to be whether Florida State is leaving the ACC, but when. I honestly feel FSU must be out the door within the next two to four years, but the sooner the better. The yearly revenue disparity between the ACC and its peers in the Big Ten and SEC is projected to grow even larger with upcoming expansion. I just don’t know if it’s even possible for a program to catch up in a race when it starts out a hundred million dollars (or hundreds of millions of dollars) behind.
IRA: It’s already deep enough. FSU can’t let it get much deeper. Just to get competitive again, Florida State had to invest a lot more money in football the last couple of years, in terms of coaching salaries and expanding the support staff. The Seminoles also have been raising money for a standalone football facility that likely will need some financing to complete. And FSU also wants to renovate Doak Campbell Stadium and other facilities. It’s hard enough to make those things happen when you’re making $10 million less each year than the competition. It won’t take long once the revenue gap hits $30 million or more for it to have a major impact on all Florida State sports. So I think the timetable is for a decision to happen pretty quickly, and then a move to come in the next few years.
Q: It sounds like the ACC is only willing to consider uneven revenue distribution if it is merit-based (getting into the College Football Playoff, etc). Even though it may only be a short-term Band-Aid, what do you feel is the best way to distribute television revenue to member schools?
GENE: First, the proposed solution of providing a financial perk to schools for making the College Football Playoff and the NCAA basketball tournament is garbage. It’s like giving a starving man a bread crumb. Worse, an on-the-field, merit-based payout system is completely missing the point. The goal should be to compensate schools based on the metric that actually drives revenue to the conference – TV ratings. Let’s be honest, the conference can thump its chest all it wants because Duke and Pitt won nine games, but outside of a few in Pittsburgh, and maybe a couple dozen in North Carolina, nobody is tuning in to watch those teams play football. ESPN and ABC, the television partners that pay all that money to the ACC, do so in order to sell commercials to advertisers and to secure carriage agreements with cable, satellite and streaming providers. How much money they get for doing this is entirely based on how many people tune in to watch the games, not on wins and losses.
COREY: I think ratings is the ONLY way to distribute television revenue. Jerry Seinfeld revealed earlier this month that he was offered $110 million by NBC if he’d film one last season of his hit show. NBC was airing a million different shows at that time. They weren’t going around and offering that kind of cash to the “Will & Grace” cast. They didn’t offer Kelsey Grammer more money than Seinfeld because “Frasier” won more Emmys. That’s not how the world of TV works. The only thing that matters is ratings. Florida State draws more viewers than any school in the conference. By a pretty large margin. Which is what matters when you’re selling the product to advertisers. So, naturally, if your product brings in more eyeballs, therefore drives up ad revenue, then your product deserves more of the pie. Wake Forest could beat FSU 10 times in a row — good heavens, let’s hope that doesn’t happen — and Wake Forest would never, ever, ever, ever deserve more TV money than Florida State.
IRA: I’m actually writing a column on this very topic because I’m so frustrated by the comments being made by coaches and media along Tobacco Road. So I will save most of my thoughts for that column, but I will say that I (surprise, surprise!) agree 100 percent with Corey and Gene. And I honestly think it could be more than a Band-Aid if done right. It maybe could help save the conference, but I don’t think enough of the other ACC schools will be willing to even consider what it takes.
JEFF: If you’re negotiating in the spirit of attempting to save the ACC and make it competitive long-term, then you would answer this very differently. I’m not interested in that outcome, so I would be a bad actor in these discussions and point out that, “Coffee is for closers,” and the vast majority of you guys in the ACC are a blip on the radar when it comes to television ratings. I’m sure you are wonderful people with great families and are very proud of your schools, as you should be, but unfortunately nobody else cares about you. So here’s what we’re going to do, the television revenue will be distributed according to eyes on sets. In short, you’re screwed.
Q: If FSU had a choice, would you prefer the Big Ten or SEC as a future home? Would your opinion change if the Big Ten threw in additional financial incentives to join?
IRA: I’m trying to think of a movie analogy so I can fit in with Jeff and Corey. In the meantime, I’ll just answer the question: I’d prefer the SEC. Not only would Florida State be a more natural fit, but it would be awesome to get those fan bases buying up tickets to games at Doak Campbell Stadium and pouring money into the local economy. I’m sure fans from any new conference would fill up Doak the first time or two their schools had trips scheduled to Tallahassee, but are Indiana or Northwestern fans really going to come year after year? We know these SEC schools will travel. So that would be the pick if we had our druthers, but the Big Ten would not be a bad consolation prize by any stretch. Especially if they sweetened the pot.
GENE: The SEC just makes too much sense. It’s geographically and culturally a perfect fit for the Seminoles. Having so many passionate fan bases within driving distance to Tallahassee would mean more ticket sales from rival fans, and more excitement on Saturdays in Doak Campbell Stadium. SEC membership would also make it easier for FSU fans to see the ‘Noles play on the road. But if this happens, I will have to leave Doak if I ever hear an “S-E-C” chant coming from Seminole fans.
The Big Ten would certainly be a major improvement from the ACC, especially financially, but there would be some geographic challenges. Sure, it would be great to see teams like Ohio State, Penn State, Nebraska and Michigan in Doak Campbell Stadium on a regular basis, but there’s still a lot of flotsam in the Big Ten (Indiana, Purdue, Maryland, Northwestern, Illinois, Rutgers). Are these teams really much different from Syracuse, BC, Wake Forest, Virginia and Duke?
To answer the last question, everyone has their price. Don’t kid yourself, no matter how this plays out, there will be a hefty bill due when FSU does eventually part ways with the ACC. If the Big Ten is willing to pick up a good portion of the tab, that needs to be factored into the decision-making process. Because FSU will already be way behind in the revenue race when the change happens. Anything that can help mitigate this damage needs to be strongly considered.
JEFF: The SEC. As Gene said, it just makes too much sense geographically. FSU has been in this footprint competing for the same things for a very long time, and the transition for the fans and those who travel to the games would be seamless. The competition would be much more intense, but with the expanded playoff and increased revenue, the ‘Noles would be fine.
COREY: We’re unanimous for the SEC. Shorter trips for fans. Better weather. More bragging rights with your neighbors and friends. I’m not sure I’ve ever met a University of Minnesota fan in my life. Like a true hardcore Gopher? Pretty sure I’ve gone all my days and not met a single one. Or a Michigan State fan for that matter. Or an Illinois fan.
But we ALL know Ole Miss fans, UGA fans, Auburn fans, ‘Bama fans, LSU fans, and on and on and on. It’s just where FSU and Clemson both belong. If the Big Ten is the only one that comes offering though, then by all means, leave the ACC before the question is even done being asked. I’m just saying if I had my choice, I would pick the SEC. And no, I don’t think my opinion would change if the BIg Ten offered more financial incentive. Those dollars aren’t going to my pocket, and I don’t want to spend Saturdays in West Lafayette or East Lansing. I’m quite confident whatever money FSU would get from the SEC would be more than enough to keep the Seminoles competitive on the national stage.
Talk about this story with other die-hard FSU football fans on the Tribal Council.
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