The NIL market revises downward…for now
This is a very good, and from what I can tell, accurate read of the recruiting landscape for the 2024 cycle. It’s not the quickest read by modern standards so I’ll pull some intriguing sections and discuss how, or if, it affects Texas.
First, when NIL was legalized two Summers ago, we knew there was no set market and early adopters would be flying blind. The more aggressive early adopters were, the more they were nearly guaranteed to land top flight talent. That cycle was already half over by the time NIL entered the discussion, so at the onset of the following cycle the market was in a frenetic state of confusion. This created a giant vacuum for any abnormally aggressive school. Normally the sucking sound would stem from Norman, but this time it came from College Station.
Back up again for a second and this development should have come as no surprise. We knew the Aggies were going to be pot committed like never before when Jimbo Fisher was hired under astronomical, and comical, terms. Then factor in Texas and OU joining the SEC just as NIL began to take off. The final nail that guaranteed A&M’s level of determination was Texas’ fantastic recruiting finish during the 2022 cycle.
In A&M’s mind, the arms race was on. They landed an incredibly strong, if unevenly loaded, class. In doing so….well, let’s go to the article.
“You’re able to read the tea leaves a little bit, and you’re seeing a little bit of a reset in the marketplace,” an SEC collective operator said. “The marketplace is starting to calm down a little bit.”
He’s discussing spending calming down from 2023 to 2024, but it initially began to calm down between 2022 and 2023. NIL packages are certainly on the decline as schools look to try and even out the spending across current rosters, rather than spending a heavy amount on a few premier players — notably quarterbacks.
“Talk to an elite high school recruit a year ago, odds were some school had presented a million-dollar offer. The recruiting world was buzzing over five-star quarterback Nico Iamaleava’s $8 million deal with Tennessee. To win on the trail, lucrative NIL offers appeared to be the path to take.”
Of course Texas caught an incredible break in 2023 with its ability to land Arch Manning without shaking the collectives upside down. That has obvious benefits the article goes on to mention.
“I think teams, depending on the situation, will still pay big for high school quarterbacks if they are going to be the leaders of the recruiting class and they believe they’re truly special,” an agent working with multiple 2024 quarterbacks said. “They weren’t paying every player before. So overall, they now understand that everyone needs to get something.”
This is where Texas finds itself as the focus becomes making sure all 85 scholarship players receive ‘something’.
Due to the emphasis on securing college rosters first, prices have naturally dropped within the high school ranks. There’s only so much money to go around.
“A year later, those startling financial packages have dropped down to six figures, according to numerous sources On3 has interviewed in recent weeks. Almost nobody has heard of a seven-figure NIL package being signed in the 2024 recruiting cycle. The right five-star prospect can command a million-dollar agreement, yet spread out over three to four years.”
How long will this downturn last? That’s hard to say, but we’re discussing markets and they’re typically cyclical. In some cases, the amount collectives have to spend will be tied to the economy. Collectives can also benefit or be hindered by fan excitement or apathy. That makes winning even more important, just ask Texas A&M.
But that goes for Texas, too.
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