The CaneSport On3: Will the Miami Hurricanes have a 1,000-yard rusher in Year 1 of the Shannon Dawson offense?

While many associate the Air-Raid offense with a heavy dose of the passing game and the running game somewhat an afterthought, that’s not what Shannon Dawson’s attack brings to Miami. It’s why we’ve referred to Dawson’s scheme as a hybrid form of Air-Raid. He uses the Air-Raid’s spread concepts while also having the potential to work a power run game into the mix as well.

Call it the best of both worlds if you want.

As Houston’s offensive coordinator the last two years, Dawson had a team that ran the ball 53.0 (yes, more than half the time in 2021) and 44.6 percent of the time.

By comparison, Miami’s perceived run-first plodding attack under Josh Gattis last year ran the ball almost exactly 50 percent of the time.

Of course it’s not just about the percentages, it’s how you go about running and passing the ball when you do those things.

And for the purposes of today’s story, we’re taking a closer look at the running aspect under Dawson. And, specifically, if a 1,000-yard rusher could be in the cards for Miami.

At Houston in 2021 top back Alton McCaskill did most of the heavy lifting and ran for 961 yards with 16 TDs in 14 games (played 478 reps per Pro Football Focus); backup Ta’Zhawn Henry added 513 yards and seven scores (336 reps).

So it was a 60-40 split between those two reps-wise.

Last year the backs were also split in reps and production with Stacy Sneed tallying 501 yards (played 297 reps), Brandon Campbell 435 yards (277 reps) and Henry 359 (in 264 reps). Also of note: QB Clayton Tune was also a threat running and actually led the team in rushing yards in 2021 with 544.

Now let’s go a little further back to see if Dawson’s offense always tends to split reps with its backs.

The answer, in short, is no.

From 2016-18 at Southern Miss in Dawson’s prior experience as an offensive coordinator there was a feature back in two of those seasons and a shared back situation the other.

In 2018 Trivenskey Mosley ran for 494 yards and Steven Anderson 318 as the top two guys. But in 2017 with a clear No. 1 talented back on the roster, the team relied on Ito Smith heavily and he responded with 1,415 yards rushing and 13 TDs. No other player had more than 272 yards.

The prior year, 2016, Smith ran for 1,459 yards and 17 TDs.

So what you see is a coordinator who will use a multiple back system when there isn’t one guy head and shoulders above the rest talent-wise, keeping everyone fresh. With Smith, a solidly built 5-9, 195-pounder, he had an NFL talent level guy who could pound down a defense and run by them, and Dawson used him the vast majority of the game.

So why is this all important?

Because you can glean what Dawson might perhaps see at Miami and how he might deal with the situation based on his past.

If Dawson does believe that, say, a Mark Fletcher is by far the best back on the roster, then we can see a guy like that running for 1,000 yards behind a reshaped offensive line in Dawson’s system. That OL, by the way, has added Alabama LG transfer Javion Cohen, UCF center Matt Lee and 5-star true freshman signee/RT anticipated starter Francis Mauigoa. Fellow 5-star signee Samson Okunlola could also wind up starting at LT, or Zion Nelson off injury that cost him basically all of last year could also be back at that spot (where Jalen Rivers, who is best suited as a guard, was the first-teamer in the spring).

Back to running back. If the load is shared, then it’s much less likely any Miami back hits that quadruple digit number.

And we think it is most likely going to be a shared system.

Henry Parrish is the returning starter. He led the way for Miami in 2022 with 616 years on 130 carries (4.7 YPC). That was behind an offensive line that struggled to open many holes. Fletcher is ultra-talented and we think in fall drills he’ll prove he needs to get a decent share of reps, but at the end of the day he’s still a true freshman with a lot to learn and no college experience under his belt.

Ajay Allen also has some physicality about him and was expected to have a role at Nebraska before transferring to Miami. True freshman Christopher Johnson has blazing track speed that will beg for him to get on the field in some kind of role. And Don Chaney has an injury history but plenty of talent.

There will be reps to share.

In short, though, no, the expectation of a 1,000-yard rusher seems unlikely at this point.

Now for a little history lesson.

Quick, what year saw the last 1,000-yard rusher at Miami?

Your answer: Back in 2014, and that was from Duke Johnson with 1,652 yards. The others on the Canes’ 1,000-yard list? Willis McGahee (1,753 in 2002), Edgerrin James twice (1,098 in 1997 and 1,416 in 1998), Lamar Miller (1,272, 2011), Ottis Anderson (1,266, 1978), Clinton Portis (1,200, 2001), Mark Walton (1,117, 2016), Danyell Ferguson (1,069 in 1995) and James Jackson (1,006 in 2000).

It’s only a matter of time before another Hurricane joins that 1,000-yard list.

It might just be another year or two before a guy like Fletcher, Johnson, Allen or someone else steps up and shows they are ready for that feature back role.

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