The CaneSport On3: Can the Miami Hurricanes offense thrive without a true No. 1 WR
A year ago the Miami Hurricanes offense struggled in pretty much all phases. First-year offensive coordinator Josh Gattis came in from Michigan with his calling card a power run game that would create plays in the run game behind it. His attack faltered badly, with a run game that ranked No. 95 in the nation and a passing attack that was No. 84 in passing efficiency and No. 59 in yards per game.
Enter Shannon Dawson.
The new leader of the Miami offense has a much different philosophy with what essentially is a hybrid Air-Raid that will spread out three and four receivers/tight ends in combination with a close to 50/50 run-pass approach the goal (last year his high-flying Houston offense threw the ball 55.4 percent of the time).
Which brings us to this question: Can his offense thrive without a true No. 1 threat?
First, a history lesson. Before 2022, the leading wide receiver for the Miami Hurricanes in the prior five years had 1,172 yards (Charleston Rambo, 2021), 799 yards (Mike Harley, 2020), 547 yards (KJ Osborn, 2019), 563 yards (Jeff Thomas, 2018) and 679 yards (Braxton Berrios, 2017).
Last season? The top wideout had all of 367 yards. That was JUCO arrival Colbie Young. To put that in perspective, the last time the leading wide receiver on a Miami Hurricanes team had under 400 yards was all the way back in 2008 under Randy Shannon on a 7-6 team. That was when five different wide receivers had between 18 and 31 catches, with the top guy Aldarius Johnson (team high 31 receptions, team high 332 yards).
It almost always seems that the best Miami offenses have that top threat at wide receiver down the field. That helps open things up for other pass catchers, drawing attention away from them, as well as the running game with safeties needing to help out.
So let’s look at this year’s Miami receivers group.
The talent returns from last year and should be better, but there were just no signs of any breakouts aside from a couple of big games from Young. Good news is Xavier Restrepo is back healthy after missing part of last season. He has a lot of upside and could be in line for a breakout season (slot receivers in particular have thrived in Dawson’s offense). Could Frank Ladson emerge? He had a lot of reps last season and didn’t, so there are question marks there. Jacaolby George and Isaiah Horton? They looked pretty good in the spring, but are they that No. 1 threat a defense needs to game plan? Probably not. Brashard Smith and Mike Redding, the same boat. Both are likely backups. Which brings us to the new additions: Freshmen Robby Washington and Ray Ray Joseph and transfer additions Shemar Kirk (JUCO) and Tyler Harrell (Alabama transfer). It’s hard to rely on a true freshman as a bigtime guy, although it can happen (see Ahmmon Richards). But it’s rare. Kirk? Probably a guy that can help, but he’s going to be playing a much different level of competition and will need to adjust to that. Harrell, though, could perhaps be that guy. He had a 500+ receiving season at Louisville, then transferred to Alabama last year where he was hurt the first part of the year and never emerged. There’s a reason an elite ‘Bama program took him – he has tested at 4.24 seconds in the 40 and has game-breaking ability. So maybe he has the best chance to emerge, and we’d probably put Restrepo as No. 2 on the list to break out this year.
So what if nobody breaks out and it’s a receiver-by-committee situation?
We don’t think that’s going to really make Dawson’s offense as effective as if there is that one threat to take pressure off everyone else and force safety help over the top.
Look at Dawson’s Houston offenses. In 2020 when Dawson was the passing game coordinator it was a by-committee WR approach, and it worked out okay as the team averaged 30.0 points and 408.9 yards. On that team there were five different targets that had between 225 and 430 receiving yards, none of them with more than four TDs.
In 2021 after Dawson took over as coordinator there was a go-to threat and Houston averaged 35.9 points and 413.4 yards. It was a guy used mainly in the slot that was the main guy in that offense. Nathaniel Dell had 90 catches (next highest was 37) for 1,329 yards (next highest was 45) with 12 TDs (next highest was five). This past season Dell again dominated. He had 109 catches (the next-highest on the team was 41) with 1,398 yards (next highest was 601) and 17 TDs (next highest was seven). And Houston averaged 36.1 points and 455.8 yards.
So in that three-year window the Houston offense did function better with a top WR threat, and Dawson had that go-to guy in his last two years as coordinator.
So yeah, we do think the data points to Dawson needing a top WR threat to help his Miami offense reach its utmost potential.
And this fall will be about finding that guy who can take the top off a defense and put up some big numbers.
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