The 3-2-1: Three things learned, two questions, one prediction as Auburn’s season kicks off
AUBURN — We’re just days away from the Hugh Freeze era of Auburn football officially kicking off against UMass on September 2 and 2:30 p.m. Central Standard Time.
It’s a long time coming since Freeze was hired in November of 2022. The anticipation around the program heading into this season is as heightened as its been since maybe the 2014 season, when Gus Malzahn and Co. were coming off a national title game appearance in 2013.
Nearly half of the football roster is different from one season ago. Of course, everyone is new to Freeze and his coaching staff. There’s little comfort in knowing exactly what the Tigers have on offense and defense heading into the fall. There’s potential and optimism, but the character and identity of this team is far from being determined, and a very tough schedule awaits.
The outside world believes this Auburn team is capable of five, six, maybe seven wins. Inside the Auburn-supporter bubble, the expectations appear to be higher, hoping for at least seven wins, maybe even eight, with an outside chance of nine. Freeze has downplayed expectations since he arrived, pointing towards roster deficiencies and wondering aloud how much Auburn’s closed the talent gap to Georgia, Alabama and the likes in college football. Even during a recent scholarship donor dinner, Freeze reiterated that this year could provide some bumps in the road, preaching patience.
But come Saturday, the wondering is done. Freeze, new Director of Athletics John Cohen and president Chris Roberts will all watch intently as their futures start to take shape. There’s never been more football season tickets sold and a brand-new capacity crowd of 88,043 will fill Jordan-Hare Stadium for the first time, as a truly new era of Auburn football, filled with NIL opportunities, university collectives and conference realignment as the backdrop, begins.
So let’s get into The 3-2-1: Three things learned, two questions, one prediction entering Auburn’s season opener against UMass.
Three things learned
Payton Thorne won the job as much for his intangibles as his on-the-field abilities. In February of 2023, Freeze said this about the quarterback position:
“Man, if you really want to be the guy that leads Auburn University as the quarterback, the leader, I think it is impossible for you to become a great quarterback and not assume the role as a leader. It certainly doesn’t look like there’s no one in that locker room that wants to follow you. It certainly doesn’t look like someone who gets rattled every time something doesn’t go exactly right. That’s not what my SEC quarterback is going to be.”
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And in August, Freeze said this of Thorne:
“It’s impossible for you not to visit with Payton because he demands it. My phone every day, ‘hey coach, you have any free time today? Hey coach, you have any free time?’ I love that about him. I feel very comfortably with who he is, his leaderships, his desire and preparation, his football IQ, but you have to make plays.”
There was more spoken about Thorne’s intangibles off the field than his abilities on it during the summer and into fall camp. Now, that doesn’t mean Thorne doesn’t have skills on the field. He went 12-17 with two touchdowns in Auburn’s final fall scrimmage, projecting as an accurate quarterback who has the mobility to make things happen in the RPO game. However, Thorne’s demeanor, devotion to the film room and steady approach to earning people’s respect earned him the QB1 spot more than anything else.
Freeze isn’t comfortable, yet. From the time he was hired, Freeze relayed the sentiment of having more to do than minutes in the day. Putting together a staff, salvaging a recruiting class, understanding the new NIL landscape, preparing for spring camp, recruiting the transfer portal, preparing for fall camp, all while still learning names on the roster and getting used to the lay of the land around the new Woltosz Performance Center, there has been no time to breathe for Freeze.
There’s a reason Freeze said in August, “this is the most uncomfortable fall camp I’m going into…” Toss in turning over play calling duties to Philip Montgomery and taking over the role of “practice jerk” during camp, all in hopes of maintaining clarity on the bigger picture, and it’s a whole new world for Freeze as he jumps back into the SEC. The comfort level will come, both with his team, the program, the SEC, NIL, all of it, but it’ll take time.
Auburn is recruiting at an elite level yet again. Freeze’s first full class isn’t signed yet, that’ll happen with this 2024 class, but it’s clear the caliber of prospect, and the reviews of the Auburn program coming out of visits, reflects elite-level effort from the Tigers’ coaching staff. While Auburn maintains their position with the No. 14 class entering the season, their average prospect ranking is 8th nationally. For much of the summer, their average prospect ranking was 4th nationally, behind only Ohio State, Alabama and Georgia. The Tigers are one of only 12 programs with a 5-star commitment, and they are one of only eight programs with multiple 5-star commitments entering September.
This is all on the heels of Freeze and Co. taking a class ranked near the 40’s nationally and finishing ranked No. 17 in the 2023 cycle, and landing what most critics believe to be a top-5 transfer portal class. It’s been years since the Tigers have beaten the likes of Georgia, Alabama, Clemson, Miami, Ohio State and the like for prospects, but that’s starting to happen on the regular. With the addition of Texas and Oklahoma next year, recruiting in the SEC is about to be downright ridiculous.
Finishing in the top six in the league’s recruiting rankings will be a fantastic feat moving forward, but Auburn is clearly poised to make that happen with Freeze and a coaching staff that gives recruiting its proper respect in terms of absolute importance and necessity all hours of the day.
Two questions
What’s the right combination of record and recruiting that will allow Auburn supporters to deem this a successful fall? Is it six wins a top-5 recruiting class? Seven wins and a top-10 class? Eight wins and a top-15 class? The temperature of the Auburn fanbase in terms of what is an acceptable season often is paired with the caveat of, “well, that depends on the recruiting class.” That makes sense for Year One, but only for Year One.
For the most part, Freeze and Co. will be given a pass for what happens on the field. However, the degree for which fans are willing to give out that pass will depend on how this 2024 recruiting class, and transfer class, pan out. And of course, how the wins and losses play out matters, too. What Auburn supporters deem a “successful” fall is a moving target and will likely remain moving until into December.
Will Auburn knock off one of Georgia, LSU or Alabama in Freeze’s first season? Auburn has lost six straight to Georgia, and nine of 10. After losing seven of nine against LSU from 2011 to 2019, Auburn has won two of the last three, and should have three straight wins in the series if not for blown lead at home last fall. As for Alabama, three of Auburn’s last four wins in the series have come in championship seasons for the Tigers in 2010, 2013 and 2017, but Auburn’s currently on a three-game losing streak. Can Freeze pull of at least one major upset against one of Auburn’s three main SEC rivals?
Georgia comes to Auburn, but Freeze’s bunch will only have one SEC game under their belt when that contest happens at the end of September. That’ll be a tall task. While LSU is on the road, Auburn will have two weeks to prepare coming off the Georgia game. Then there’s Alabama, who will try and avoid losing their third game in the last four tries at Auburn come season’s end.
This Auburn team seems poised to improve as the season goes on, as players and coaches gain confidence as information about identity, strengths and weaknesses becomes available. Having said that, Alabama might be Freeze’s best bet to pull an upset. He’s beaten Nick Saban multiple times before, and the Iron Bowl will be an insane atmosphere. Pulling off the upset of any one of those three games would certainly expedite the process of returning Auburn among the league’s best.
One prediction
Auburn will perform better in their last six games than their first six games. With unknowns all over the field, and players and staff growing more accustomed to each other with each passing day, the outlook for Auburn’s season could very well take a turn for the better as the season goes on. With three non-conference games to start, the Tigers could be 3-0. The road game at Cal is tricky. However, the first three SEC games are brutal with road contests at Texas A&M and LSU, and Georgia sandwiched in between.
The bad news is Auburn could start 0-3 in league play. The good news is Auburn will learn a lot about themselves in those first three SEC games, and will be in good position to make changes, shift, and surprise some people in the final five games of the SEC schedule.
It starts with home games against the Mississippi schools following the LSU road game, followed by a road game at Vanderbilt. It’s entirely possible that if Auburn starts 0-3 in SEC play, they could reel off three straight wins to right the ship. Bottom line: Everything about this team and season points towards a different (in a good way) team in November than in September.
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