Tennessee preps for Texas A&M; the weekly 3-2-1
Tennessee is coming off of a much needed open week and the Vols are preparing to welcome a hungry Texas A&M squad to town. We look at the keys to that match-up in our weekly 3-2-1 feature, with three observations, two questions and one prediction about this Tennessee football team.
THREE OBSERVATIONS
1 — Keep grinding — Tennessee infamously could not run the football at Florida in a 29-16 loss. They had 100 yards on 30 attempts. The longest rush of the day in Gainesville went for 12 yards, and as a result Joe Milton and the passing game had a tremendous burden placed on it.
Fast forward to South Carolina and the Vols were dominant on the ground, rolling up 238 yards rushing and averaging 6.0 yards per attempt. As a result, Milton was able to lean on the ground game without having to carry the full offensive load.
Clearly getting veteran center Cooper Mays back to play for the first time this year had a positive impact on the ground game.
Even with that Florida hiccup Tennessee leads the SEC in rushing by a wide margin at 231.2 yards per game. Jaylen Wright has arguably been the most efficient back in the conference. His 87.0 yards per game rushing is fourth in the league while his 7.13 yards per attempt is second.
The challenge this week is going to be far stiffer than it was against South Carolina. The Gamecocks are the a bottom third of the league run defense. Texas A&M is a top-third of the league rushing defense and just got done throttling the efforts of Alabama’s ground game in a 26-20 win for the Tide.
Alabama managed just 23 yards on 26 carries (0.9 ypc). Obviously, those kind of numbers would likely be difficult for this Tennessee offense to overcome.
2 — Bring the heat — Tennessee’s pass rush may be the story of the Vols’ to this point. Tennessee’s 4.4 sacks per game leads the SEC (just ahead of Texas A&M). James Pearce Jr. is second in the league with five sacks, Tyler Baron is tied for third with four of his own.
Alabama had a great deal of success getting to the quarterback against the Aggies, registering five sacks.
The Aggies have been just an average rushing team (144 ypg) and struggled against Alabama, picking up just 67 yards on the day. If Tennessee can control the run game and play ‘vanilla’ with two high safeties while generating pressure with just the front four, that should be a recipe for success.
With reserve Max Johnson now the starter at quarterback, you have to think controlling the Aggies’ ground game to the point that Johnson has to carry the offense would play into Tennessee’s hands.
With the ground game somewhat stagnant against Alabama, and with the Tide’s pass rush getting home, Johnson had some struggles. He finished the day just 14-of-25 but he did throw for 239 yards with one touchdown and one interception.
Outside of this weekend against Alabama, Texas A&M has been solid in pass protection, allowing 1.4 sacks per game. But the Vols have looked nasty up front, and with a helping hand from what should be a hostile environment, the pass rush should have a chance to be a huge factor on Saturday.
3 — Joe just has to be steady — Joe Milton doesn’t have to throw for 300 yards for Tennessee to win this one. But he’s got to avoid the interception issues that plagued him against South Carolina.
Texas A&M is limping in a bit, having lost their starting quarterback last month, but the Aggies still have talent, especially in the front seven.
Milton has to avoid the big mistakes and giving up short fields to a Texas A&M offense that isn’t operating at peak efficiency right now.
In some ways, Milton showed some progress against the Gamecocks, a game in which he completed 21-of-32 passes for 239 yards and a touchdown. However, he also threw two picks and both were his fault.
On the first he just failed to see a safety in the middle of the field and the resulting interception led to a South Carolina touchdown in the first quarter. Later in the game he just under threw a ball to Jacob Warren that turned into a pick.
Bad or off-target throws will happen, but Milton has to avoid those unforced errors where he just throws into coverage.
You can’t just take those two out against the Gamecocks, that goes without saying. But Milton did some nice things in that game that he needs to build on. He also may have not been at 100% after tweaking his knee the week prior against Austin Peay.
That shouldn’t be an issue after an open date and Tennessee will need Milton to be efficient against a front seven that could have the ability to limit the ground game to a degree.
The Vols won’t need Milton to be superman, but they’re going to need him to avoid mistakes and make the routine throws to keep this offense moving.
TWO QUESTIONS
HOW TO REPLACE BRU?
Bru McCoy is one of the most popular players on the team and a respected voice in the locker room. His leadership is going to be missed, but more than that the hole left by his 17 rec. and 225 yards receiving have to be replaced. He’s also the Vols most devastating downfield blocker at the receiver spot, and that trait is going to be hard to replace.
The ideal solution for Tennessee would be for the immensely physically gifted Dont’e Thornton Jr. to take advantage of the opportunity and pick up the slack from McCoy’s absence.
Thornton looks the part, no doubt, but the Oregon transfer hasn’t made a huge impact yet.
Thornton will get his chances to be sure, but so will second year wideouts Chas Nimrod and Kaleb Webb.
The Vols’ receiver depth is suddenly being tested and it’s unclear, at least to me, what Josh Heupel and the staff will do as a response. Who the third wideout is on Saturday is going to be something everyone is keeping a close eye on.
WHAT ABOUT THE LEAGUE?
With Tennessee off this week Vol fans got the chance to sit back on a pressure free Saturday and watch an interesting afternoon of SEC football.
Alabama got a tough win at Texas A&M but that still looks like a Crimson Tide team that’s not up to the lofty standards we’ve seen from them in the last decade.
Georgia sent Kentucky crashing back down to earth with a crushing 51-18 defeat. That result probably says a lot about both Kentucky, and that Florida team that the Wildcats hammered the week before.
The takeaway from those two preceding paragraphs is that after a slow start, Georgia looks like Georgia and it looks like there’s a pretty big gap between the ‘Dawgs and Tide.
My biggest takeaway from the weekend is that Missouri might actually be pretty decent. Obviously they lost to LSU (whose defense has PROBLEMS), but the Tigers looked plenty pesky. Tennessee has completely owned Mizzou since Heupel’s arrival, but that one looks like it has the potential to be a tricky road trip in November.
ONE PREDICTION
It’s not going to be this simple, but Tennessee’s ground game vs. Texas A&M’s front seven is going to be a doozy. It’s strength on strength with the top rushing offense in the league against one of the top three rushing defenses.
Tennessee is 18-3 under Josh Heupel when the Vols rush for at least 150 yards. They’re 3-6 when they rush for less than 150 yards under Heupel.
My prediction is that the Vols top 150 yards on the ground and win by two+ scores.
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