STATE OF THE U 2023: Final Analysis
Earlier this month, CaneSport set about evaluating the current State of The U. We pored through data from years past for signs of what lies ahead. There’s that old saying “history repeats itself,” right? Wouldn’t that be nice for a Miami Hurricanes fan?
We brought you analysis of what it will take for this Miami program to “get back.” We laid bare why there remains a big chasm between what this program once was and what it’s become. It’s gone from eight straight years of double-digit wins in the 1980s-90s, a 2000-03 run with 11 or 12 wins including a national title, to a program with one 10-win season in 19 years. Do some quick math and Miami’s record in the last five years – under three different head coaches – is 33-28. There were two losing seasons in that span.
That was once unthinkable.
So it’s a lot for Mario Cristobal to turn around as he enters year 2. Those that thought it could be a one-year fix were shortsighted, as 2022’s 5-7 record proved.
But there is no question the future is bright. You can see what is coming in the evaluations we presented starting with our first State of The U item titled “Everyone wants a quick fix, but thorough eval of program shows headwinds Mario Cristobal faces.”
Our State of The U series reviewed the recruiting classes which make up the 2023 team. We analyzed the depth charts and personnel at each position. We broke down how Cristobal brought on new Cane coaches and has worked to shore up positional issues through the transfer portal. We brought you opinion articles on what we see having covered this team for more than two decades.
What is indisputable is that Cristobal has already turned this program on its head, win-loss record be damned. There were 14 transfers brought in this cycle along with 24 recruits. Last year the team took 12 transfers and 14 signees. Those that weren’t good enough or didn’t embrace the culture of hard work and physicality were told “Goodbye, we don’t need you and we don’t want you.”
Only the strong survive, right? Us against the world and all that stuff.
But now this year is an inflection point of sorts. Just look at Cristobal’s other two stops as head coach, at FIU and Oregon, and his second seasons bred much more success. FIU improved by four wins from Year 1 to Year 2 under Cristobal; the Ducks got three more wins in his second season as head coach.
Is it fair to expect 8 or 9 wins this year off a 5-7 season? Sure. This is, after all, Miami.
But wins aren’t simply handed out like hot dogs at Hard Rock Stadium. They have to be earned.
STATE OF THE U: QB ANALYSIS … RB analysis … WR analysis … TE analysis … OL analysis … DL analysis … LB analysis … DB/special teams analysis
In the end it’s personnel, recruiting and facilities that need to be championship level from the bottom to the top. The facilities issue is already underway with the plan for a new building adjacent to the indoor practice facility. It will have state-of-the-art, well, everything. There are new locker rooms and a commitment from the President’s office down to make Miami football relevant again nationally.
The coaching staff turnover happened quickly after a season that went off the rails, with new coordinators that bring aggressive systems that will excite recruits. The position coach turnover is designed to get the most out of players and entice top area talent to stay home.
At the end of the day, of course, players have to buy into the Cristobal culture and perform.
STATE OF THE U 2023: Can coaching staff overhaul turn around Miami’s fortunes in a hurry?
So, as you look around this team, what do you see? Well, it’s a program where prior recruiting hasn’t done Cristobal many favors.
In our Class of 2019 analysis we noted that the only anticipated starter this year is nickel Te’Cory Couch.
2020? QB Tyler Van Dyke, WR Xavier Restrepo and OL Jalen Rivers were the only guys we listed as anticipated starters.
In 2021 you get safeties Kam Kinchens and James Williams, DT Leonard Taylor, TE Elijah Arroyo and PK Andres Borregales.
2022 has DL Akheem Mesidor and LB Wesley Bissainthe as the guys we have as almost certainly starting.
So do the math, and that’s 11 players in the four classes, not including incoming true freshmen, that are deemed pretty clear starters. And you could argue that five of the 11 haven’t really shown All-ACC type potential yet (Restrepo, Rivers, Arroyo, Borregales, Bissainthe).
The misses in those four classes weren’t Cristobal’s fault, of course. But it’s his job to make it all work, hence his attempt to patch holes with the transfer portal while also recruiting top talent to Coral Gables.
Class of 2019 analysis, Class of 2020, Class of 2021, Class of 2022 and Class of 2023
Cristobal isn’t about waiting for success, and Miami will look to make it work this year in a new hybrid Air-Raid system under coordinator Shannon Dawson. Van Dyke is back healthy after essentially missing the last half of 2022 and looked very much on point in the spring and will be helped by a revamped offensive line that includes Alabama transfer guard Javion Cohen, UCF transfer center Matt Lee and a pair of 5-star signees in RT Francis Mauigoa and LT Samson Okunlola (who will look to beat out Rivers in upcoming fall drills).
The receiving room returns essentially intact but thoroughly underperformed, which is why Miami added Alabama transfer Tyler Harrell and his 4.24-second speed along with JUCO addition Shemar Kirk and a pair of speedy freshmen in Ray Ray Joseph (who we expect will have a big immediate role) and Robby Washington.
The tight end position loses Will Mallory, the only major defection off last year’s offense, but gets back Elijah Arroyo off injury, adds a physical presence with eighth-year Oregon transfer Cam McCormick and also has a pass-catching option in Jaleel Skinner.
So this should be a much better offense than the one that ranked No. 85 in the nation in total offense and No. 96 in scoring offense with the failed Josh Gattis experiment.
On defense there are proven playmakers up front in Akheem Mesidor and Leonard Taylor, and we think DE Nyjalik Kelly is ready for a breakout season in Year 2. Questions remain beside Taylor at defensive tackle, though. And linebacker depth is also a question mark aside from Washington State transfer Francisco Mauigoa, who shined in the spring and brings much-needed physicality to the middle of the D. Bissainthe had 30 tackles, none for losses, in Year 1 and didn’t stand out this spring. So Miami really needs him to break through this fall.
In the secondary the team lost its starting boundary corners and that’s a major concern area, which is why Cristobal added four new faces in the portal – Davonte Brown (UCF), Jaden Davis (Oklahoma), Ja’Dais Richard (Vanderbilt) and Demetrius Freeney (JUCO). Brown and Davis are most likely to start if we are making projections heading into fall drills, but it will be a wide open competition. Couch returns at nickel, and Miami has arguably the best safety duo in the nation with All-American Kam Kinchens and former 5-star James Williams.
We will find out a heck of a lot about this team early-on with a game 2 slugfest against Texas A&M, then will learn everything we need to know during a six-game season-defining stretch from Oct. 14-Nov. 18 that includes North Carolina, Clemson, NC State, Florida State and Louisville. All five of those teams are expected to be solid. None will be easy wins, not with a Miami program that still has depth holes at virtually every position. Cristobal wants to get it to the point where the backups play like starters and the starters play like NFL prospects. The Canes are not there yet, and in the big picture that’s what needs to happen for Miami to get back to being Miami again. Coaches want to bring back the good old days when practice was harder than games … because UM had players that were better than their opponents.
In the end, our State of The U series wasn’t about looking at the rosy stuff, it was showing off the good but also laying bare the issues. And there are many that remain and need fixing.
Fans want to believe. They want to expect a playoff berth this year, at least a run at the ACC title. And, if it all comes together, maybe it can happen. But in reality, for those that know what a championship team looks like, this one is another recruiting class or two away.
The good news is Cristobal is building it.
And you can sense it coming.
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