STATE OF THE U 2023: 2023 recruiting class analysis
Over the last several days, CaneSport has broken down the recruiting classes/transfer portal additions in the Class of 2019, Class of 2020, Class of 2021 and Class of 2022. You’d think those would form the backbone of a program, right? But we laid bare the inadequacies for various reasons in each of those.
Which perhaps makes it a little less shocking that the Class of 2023 (including the new transfer arrivals) make up a full 47 percent of the total roster this year.
There are 40 new faces that Mario Cristobal has brought in, and their successes or failures will have a big impact on not just the “win now” mentality but also the future.
There is no overemphasizing how important this class is to Cristobal’s vision for what Miami Hurricanes football should and needs to be.
So without further ado let’s dive right into it, with a final analysis to follow:
CLASS OF 2023 (26)
* DE Collins Acheampong: Acheampong was injured in the spring and will look to break into the two-deep this fall, but it will be an uphill climb given some of the returning talent.
* LB Raul Aguirre: He’s a talented new addition but his most likely immediate role will be helping on special teams.
Rueben Bain (photo by Neil Gershman)
* DL Rueben Bain: Bain showed throughout his stellar high school career that he’s one of the nation’s best prep pass rushers – he had 77 sacks in high school. And it was pretty clear this spring that translates over to this level – he had three sacks in the spring game. We see an immediate role for Bain. While he perhaps won’t start, he will get plenty of reps working at end as well as tackle (in passing situations).
* CB Damari Brown: Brown’s most likely immediate role will be on special teams, as Miami brought in four second portal window cornerback additions to help shore up the depth chart.
* LB Malik Bryant: Bryant has a bright future but his most likely role in Year 1 will be helping on special teams.
* TE Jackson Carver: Carver will spend this year getting stronger in the weight room as he needs to bulk up to be a bigtime college tight end.
* RB Mark Fletcher: We see Fletcher, a summer arrival, pushing returning starter Henry Parrish for the first team job. Parrish is a smaller back who is probably best served in a third down role, but he started last year out of necessity as much as anything else with a depleted depth chart. Enter the 4-star Fletcher with his combination of size, speed and power. It’s going to be tough to keep him off the field and we think he will be the starter at some point this season.
STATE OF THE U 2023: 2019 recruiting class analysis … 2020 analysis … 2021 analysis … 2022 analysis
* JUCO CB Demetrius Freeney: Freeney comes from the JUCO ranks to help a cornerback spot that lost both its starters. But we think transfers Davonte Brown and Jaden Davis have a leg up entering the fall battles. With a lot of corners on the roster it’ll be open competition, so certainly Freeney will get every opportunity to emerge.
* DT Joshua Horton: Miami coaches love what Horton brings to the table, but it’s always difficult for a true freshman D tackle to have a big impact right away because in the trenches you’re simply going up against guys that have been in other programs training their bodies at the college level for multiple years. We can see Horton on the two-deep though, simply because the Miami defensive tackle position arguably has the worst level of depth on the team.
* RB Christopher Johnson: Johnson has state championship level track speed coming out of high school, and he could be an ideal weapon in conjunction with power back signee Mark Fletcher. But Johnson has to show he can pass protect if he’s going to be in that receiving back/third down role this year. And that’s a big task for a true freshman.
* WR Ray Ray Joseph: We expect new offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson to come up with some innovative ways to get Joseph the ball, including quick hitters, end arounds, etc. Joseph is too explosive with the ball in his hands to leave him on the bench. So while technically he will be behind Xavier Restrepo, we expect Joseph to have an immediate impact.
* P Dylan Joyce: Coaches are impressed with Joyce, who comes in and will fill the large shoes of Lou Hedley. Joyce has a strong leg but has never been tested under the lights, so there’s always going to be a question mark there until he shows he can get booming kicks off in pressure situations.
* OL Tommy Kinsler: Coaches are impressed with Kinsler and we think he will be on the two deep as a true freshman. If there’s an injury or two, he could be the next guy in … which might mean Miami has three true freshmen that play significant roles this year when you include 5-star signees Francis Mauigoa and Samson Okunlola.
* JUCO WR Shemar Kirk: Miami needs wide receiver help after the position struggled mightily last year (top wideout Colbie Young had all of 367 yards). Kirk is a more experienced arrival and will get a chance to show why he should start in fall drills. It will be wide open competition at the outside spots and may the best man win.
* OL Francis Mauigoa: Mauigoa spent the spring as the first team right tackle and very much held his own, so go ahead and pencil him in as a true freshman starter on a revamped line that will also include transfers Javion Cohen (Alabama), Matt Lee (UCF) and perhaps fellow 5-star true freshman Samson Okunlola.
* OL Samson Okunlola: See above. Mauigoa and Okunlola were both 5-star signees and we don’t think Mario Cristobal will leave either on the bench. Okunlola spent the spring as the second team left tackle behind Jalen Rivers, but with Rivers’ more natural position at guard we think this fall Okunlola will make a move to the top of the depth chart (although that will also hinge on the health of Zion Nelson).
* LB Marcellius Pulliam: If there is a freshman linebacker that will break out, we think it’ll be Pulliam. He has college ready size and speed and just has to really hone in on what Lance Guidry wants to get done. Pulliam is going to be a bigtime playmaker, it’s just a matter of time.
* S Kaleb Spencer: You look at the safeties, and Spencer already is the most physically imposing of the bunch. He just has to learn the defense, and with a thin safety depth chart he’s likely to be a second-teamer along with Markeith Williams behind Kam Kinchens and James Williams. Spencer will also make his mark on special teams.
* CB Robert Stafford: Stafford is an excellent cover corner, but the team brought in four transfer corners they are relying on for a more immediate fix at the position while younger guys like Stafford can learn the ropes.
* OL Frankie Tinilau: Tinilau has huge upside but will likely need a year to acclimate to the college system. A redshirt would serve him well.
* OL Antonio Tripp: Like Tinilau above, we see Tripp redshirting unless injury necessitates him being called into action. He also has a bright future.
* LB Bobby Washington: Washington looked like a physical playmaker in the spring, but he’s most likely in line for a depth and special teams role this season.
* WR Robby Washington: Washington has great speed on the outside, but there is a lot of competition for reps. He’ll have to show more this fall camp than he did in the spring, when he was hampered by injury.
* DE Jayden Wayne: Wayne has great upside but will have a tough time cracking the two-deep with other ends like Akheem Mesidor, Jahfari Harvey, Nyjalik Kelly and Reuben Bain ahead of him.
* QB Emory Williams: Williams showed some pinpoint accuracy and good decision-making (for a freshman) at different points this spring. He’ll use the fall to continue to acclimate to Shannon Dawson’s system, and we would not rule out him pushing Jacurri Brown for the backup role behind Tyler Van Dyke (if Brown doesn’t solve his accuracy issues).
* TE Riley Williams: Williams has come in and really impressed coaches, so perhaps there can be an immediate role for him on offense. But with Elijah Arroyo, Cam McCormick and Jaleel Skinner the top three on the depth chart he will really need to impress in fall drills.
TRANSFERS INTO THE PROGRAM (14)
* RB Ajay Allen (Nebraska): Allen comes into a running back position that has a returning starter in Henry Parrish, but Parrish is undersized and Allen can give Miami more of a power back option. He’ll have to show in fall camp that he deserves reps over other power backs like true freshman standout Mark Fletcher and oft-injured Don Chaney. Note that Allen was projected to play a lot of reps this coming season at Nebraska but opted to transfer when he wasn’t making headway up the depth chart in spring ball. Allen only played 73 reps at Nebraska last season and carried 33 times for 190 yards with two TDs.
Davonte Brown (photo by Neil Gershman)
* CB Davonte Brown (UCF): The UCF transfer spent the spring as the first-teamer opposite Daryl Porter, Jr. with last year’s starting boundary corners DJ Ivey and Tyrique Stevenson gone. But Canes coaches wanted more competition and to up the level of talent in the room, which now makes it questionable who will start at the two CB spots. Second portal window additions were Jaden Davis, Ja’Dais Richard and JUCO pickup Demetrius Freeney, so there’s no sure things here. Brown comes in with 36 games of playing experience, and in his time at UCF he had 91 total tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss, a sack, 21 pass deflections and a forced fumble. He had 30 tackles, two INTs and four PBU this past season,
* DL Anthony Campbell (Lousiana-Monroe): Campbell’s biggest chance at a major role is on the interior of the defense, but he can also work in for reps at end at 6-7 and 277 pounds. Certainly Miami needs him to be able to help out on the interior, where the only real proven guy is Leonard Taylor. The Canes are also relying on another transfer, Purdue’s Branson Deen, to step up (right now it’s Taylor and Deen as the likely starters). But the opportunity is certainly there for Campbell to come in as a second portal addition. Campbell started his college experience at Independence (Kan.) Community College, was a backup there for two seasons and headed to ULM, where he was a backup in 2021 and played 57 reps in six games and had one QB hurry. This past season he was again a backup but played well – in 208 reps he had 13 tackles, 3.5 TFL and a sack along with 2 QB hurries.
* OL Luis Cristobal (Georgia State): Miami views Cristobal (yes, Mario’s nephew) as a guy that can compete to start at center when UCF transfer Matt Lee leaves the program. He is coming back home after playing at Miami Columbus High School before heading to Georgia State for the last four seasons. He enrolled for summer school, and the 6-0, 274-pounder played 367 reps last year after only playing a combined 41 reps his three prior seasons at Georgia State.
* LB KJ Cloyd (Louisville): A 6-2, 229-pounder, he played middle linebacker at Louisville last season as a backup who played just 140 reps. He ended with 15 tackles, 2 QB hurries and a fumble recovery. Cloyd played under Miami LB coach Derek Nicholson at Louisville, so the hope is he can push to start and provide good depth at Miami. In 2020 at Louisville he played off the bench in 11 games and had 12 tackles, then in 2021 he started one game and came off the bench in 12 others. He had 12 tackles on the year.
* LG Javion Cohen (Alabama): Adding Cohen from Alabama as a key piece for this Miami offensive line. He started for the Crimson Tide at left guard last year and will do the same this season at Miami, and preseason publications are already anointing Cohen an All-ACC lineman with high end NFL Draft potential. Cohen only played 28 reps at ‘Bama as a true freshman in 2020, he became a full-time starter at left guard there in 2021, then this past season started 10 games and earned second team All-SEC honors. He’s a bigtime addition for Miami.
* CB Jaden Davis (Oklahoma): Davis was taken in the second transfer portal window after starting on a not-real-good Oklahoma secondary (he had 65 tackles and 2 PBU last season), and he’ll be given every chance to emerge at the wide-open boundary corner spots. It’s a transfer-heavy position given the returning depth issues (no proven guys), and the other portal guys are Ja’Dais Richard, Davonte Brown, JUCO arrival Demetrius Freeney and last year’s West Virginia transfer, Daryl Porter, Jr. Last year opposing QBs hit on 16 of 30 passes vs. Davis for 202 yards.
* DT Branson Deen (Purdue): Deen arrived from Purdue before the spring and spent the 15 practices with the ones. He looks like he can be solid but isn’t going to wow you with his size or quickness. Miami’s issue is defensive tackle talent and depth, and outside of Leonard Taylor there’s no proven real playmakers here. So Deen might be the next best option to start next to Taylor. Deen had 27 tackles for the Boilermakers last season with 4 TFL and 2.5 sacks along with 4 QB hurries. In 2021 he was All-Big Ten honorable mention after starting 11 games and finishing with 26 tackles, 9.5 TFL, 4 sacks and 4 QB hurries.
* DT Thomas Gore (Georgia State): Undersized at 6-0 and 280 pounds, Gore wasn’t able to make much headway on the depth chart in the spring, and the feeling for now is his role will be as a depth guy. It’s a bit of a transition for Deen given the level of play he was at previously at Georgia State. But he was All-Sun Belt Conference honorable mention in 2021 and in his career there he amassed 93 tackles, 11 sacks and two forced fumbles. He had eight tackles for loss in 2022. He has a lot to prove in fall drills.
* WR Tyler Harrell (Alabama): Harrell had a 500-plus yard season in 2021 at Louisville but injury cost him last year at Alabama when he missed the first half of the season and then was a backup. Now he’s got new life at Miami, and his 4.24-second speed should give Tyler Van Dyke a viable downfield threat on the outside. We think Harrell has a really good shot to start given the team’s WR room issues last year (when the top receiver was Colbie Young with all of 376 yards).
* C Matt Lee (UCF): Lee is the nation’s top returning center per Pro Football Focus grades (90.6 percent pass blocking grade), and he certainly looked every bit of a dominant guy in the middle this spring. Arriving from UCF as a multi-year starter he’s got experience and a motor that doesn’t quit (think KC Jones). Lee’s a huge part of a reshaped line that should be tremendously better off a not-good performance from the unit in 2022.
* LB Francisco Mauigoa (Washington State): Mauigoa came to Miami from Washington State and immediately looked the part this spring. He worked with the first team ahead of returning starter Corey Flagg and was consistently breaking into the offensive backfield and showcasing his size (6-3, 230) and agility. He showcased his skill last season across the country – he had 60 tackles, 5.5 TFL and 3.5 sacks as a starter, also forcing three fumbles (tied for the Pac-12 lead) with an interception. Mauigoa will be a starter in the middle of this defense and we think he’ll be a difference-maker.
* TE Cam McCormick (Oregon): McCormick adds a physical element to the tight ends room that Miami was missing desperately last year when the OL faltered as well. An eighth-year guy with a past at Oregon riddled by injury, McCormick was the first-teamer ahead of Jaleel Skinner this spring but is likely to take a back seat to Elijah Arroyo when he returns off injury for fall camp. But McCormick will get lots of reps as a run blocker/pass protector with that his forte. At 6-5 and 260 pounds he hasn’t had a lot of opportunities due to his injury history. But when healthy he looks like he can really help this team.
* CB Ja’Dais Richard (Vanderbilt): Richard is a long, fast corner who could be a good fit at Miami … but he didn’t have great results in his one year playing at Vandy. The good news is he had a strong spring there, earning a lot of praise, and he’s also versatile enough to play boundary corner or the nickel/STAR spot in Lance Guidry’s defense. At 6-2 and 200-pounds, last year per PFF he was targeted 13 times and allowed nine receptions (69.2 percent) for 211 yards with two TDs. So he has something to prove in fall camp if he’s going to be a playmaker.
* NOTE: Does not include Iowa transfer Terry Roberts, who transferred to Miami prior to spring and went back in the portal afterward
ANALYSIS
Again with the above you see what Mario Cristobal wanted to accomplish prior to last year that didn’t work out real well with a 5-7 record. That’s trying to fill roster holes of immediate need through the portal while simultaneously building for the future through recruiting. It somewhat is the Holy Grail of rebuilding as a new coach, right? Because it means you don’t have to wait the usual 2-3 years for your recruits to develop. So maybe it’ll hit in Cristobal’s second year, aided in part by immediate playing time we anticipate for several of the true freshmen.
There are an incredible 40 new faces above, including the new transfers into Miami.
That’s almost half of the 85-man roster. So it goes without saying the Canes are relying heavily on a lot of these guys to step up.
Of the transfers, the ones we see as likely starters are WR Tyler Harrell, OL Javion Cohen, C Matt Lee, DT Branson Deen, LB Francisco Mauigoa and CBs Jaden Davis and Davonte Brown. Competing to start or at least a decent chance to be in the two-deep would be RB Ajay Allen, TE Cam McCormick, DL Anthony Campbell, LB KJ Cloyd and perhaps CB Ja’Dais Richard.
So that’s a big chunk of the two-deep and solid production has to come from those guys.
Out of the true freshmen class we see a starting role for RT Francis Mauigoa, P Dylan Joyce and maybe RT Samson Okunlola, RB Mark Fletcher and/or DL Rueben Bain, with potentially significant reps for others like WR Ray Ray Joseph, WR Shemar Kirk, DT Joshua Horton, LB Marcellius Pulliam and CB Demetrius Freeney.
A lot is riding on the Class of 2023 and the transfers Cristobal brought in.
How they perform will likely be the difference between a subpar or average season vs. maybe shocking the nation and hitting that double-digit win mark for the second time in the last 19 years.
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