STATE OF THE U 2023: 2020 recruiting class analysis
Yesterday CaneSport broke down a 2019 Miami recruiting class that failed on numerous levels. As we pointed out, 17 of the 24 players in the class never had much of an impact. And all seven of the players that either didn’t transfer out or depart early for reasons other than the NFL were either JUCO arrivals or transfers.
Which brings us to the Class of 2020. This was another Manny Diaz-recruited class and would have been one of key classes that could have been a backbone for the program when Mario Cristobal took over last year. After all, the high school recruits in this class were third-year players last year (and for those that return are fourth-year guys in 2023).
But, again, you just have to point to this that was ranked No. 17 in the nation and shake your head at how it turned out.
We’ll have a full analysis at the bottom of this story, but first let’s get to the players and then the analysis:
GRADUATED MIAMI / LEFT FOR NFL EARLY (3)
* PK Jose Borregales arrived from FIU in 2020, and all he did was win the Lou Groza Award after making 20 of 22 field goal attempts in his one year at Miami. He was an undrafted free agent who signed with Tampa Bay and didn’t see any playing time and then wound up with the XFL’s Orlando Guardians (made six of nine attempts with a long of 52 last season).
* D’Eriq King arrived as a Houston transfer and starred in 2020 in Rhett Lashlee’s offense, hitting on 64% of his throws for 2,686 yards and 23 touchdowns with five interceptions. He added 538 rushing yards and four more scores. He suffered a torn ACL in the bowl game, returning in 2021 for the first three games but then suffering a season-ending injury. He had four interceptions and three TD passes before being sidelined, and Tyler Van Dyke took over from there and earned ACC Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. King was an undrafted free agent signed by the New England Patriots but was cut, then was picked up by the Carolina Panthers and cut. He is now with the XFL’s DC Defenders. In a situational role last season he hit on 17 of 25 passes for 184 yards and four TDs with one INT, adding 101 rush yards and five more scores.
* DE Quincy Roche arrived from Temple in 2020 and had 14.5 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks in his one year at UM. He was selected in the sixth round of the draft by the Steelers, released in August and then picked up by the Giants. In 2021 he had 2.5 sacks and five tackles for loss, then this past season added 40 tackles, 2.5 sacks and a forced fumble. While he was overshadowed his one year at Miami by Jaelan Phillips, the Canes benefited tremendously from his leadership and steady play.
STATE OF THE U 2023: 2019 recruiting class analysis
TRANSFERS OUT FROM MIAMI / DEPARTED (NOT FOR NFL) WITH ELIGIBILITY REMAINING (12)
* LB Tirek Austin-Cave was mired down the depth chart and entered the transfer portal late in the spring of 2021. He wound up at West Virginia and came off the bench last season, playing in nine games with one tackle.
* CB Marcus Clarke started four of the final six games in 2021, passing by Te’Cory Couch on the depth chart. Clarke finished with 24 tackles and an interception, but in spring ball last year he was with the backups. So he wound up entering the transfer portal and landed at Missouri. He played in eight games off the bench last year and ended with five tackles.
* CB Isaiah Dunson worked at nickel at Miami, playing in six games off the bench last season before entering the transfer portal. After three years as a UM backup he is now looking to break out at Baylor.
* Jalen Harrell was mired down the depth chart in three seasons at Miami and moved from safety to cornerback before last season. He wound up in the transfer portal and is now set for his first season at UMass.
* RB Jaylan Knighton had a strong 2021 season but then took a huge step backward last year. First, 2021. He was suspended the first four games that year but then took over the starting job after Cam Harris went down with a season-ending injury. Knighton responded, rushing for 561 yards in eight games and adding 280 receiving yards. He had 11 total touchdowns. So that has set the stage for him to be the starter again … except Mississippi transfer Henry Parrish won the job and Knighton had injury and fumbling issues. He entered the transfer portal and landed at SMU with UM former coordinator Rhett Lashlee.
* DL Elijah Roberts was a backup in his three years at Miami other than one spot start, and he entered the transfer portal after last season and landed at SMU under Miami’s former coordinator, Rhett Lashlee.
* WR Key’Shawn Smith is a third player for this class that wound up transferring to SMU to join former coordinator Rhett Lashlee. Smith had a promising 2021 season, starting every game and finishing with 33 catches and 405 yards. But he lost his starting job last season and ended with just 199 yards and two TDs.
* OL Issiah Walker signed with Florida, quickly transferred to Miami in 2020, had some personal issues, was mired down the depth chart and left the program in 2021 for Butler Community College. After playing one season there he’s now found a new home at Purdue after he was ranked in the nation’s top 20 JUCO OT prospects.
* Safety Keshawn Washington never made a move up the depth chart and entered the transfer portal after last season. He has not yet found a new home.
* Safety Avantae Williams was a former highly touted recruit who missed 2020 due to injury, then in 2021 was suspended the first six games due to a legal issue. After spending last year as a backup behind Kam Kinchens, James Williams and converted cornerback Al Blades (Avantae had 9 tackles last season), Williams has now transferred to Maryland.
* DL Quentin Williams entered the transfer portal after UM’s eighth game of 2021 when he wasn’t getting reps, and after deciding to transfer to Marshall he wound up playing at Hutchinson Community College. In three games he had four tackles, and it’s unclear if or where he will play this coming season.
* WR Dazalin Worsham struggled with speed issues and was a scout team player in 2020 and 2021. He transferred out after spring practice last year and wound up at Auburn – he played in 11 games with one start against Western Kentucky and had 1 catch for 8 yards. He has now transferred again for the coming season, this time to UAB.
QB Tyler Van Dyke © Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
ANTICIPATED STARTERS (3)
* WR Xavier Restrepo had 373 yards and two TDs backing up Mike Harley in 2021 and was supposed to have a breakout year in 2022 as the starting slot receiver. But injury and an offensive system that never got off the ground cost him. Restrepo finished with 21 catches and 240 yards and is now looking to have that breakout in 2023.
* OL Jalen Rivers started the first three games in 2021 before missing the rest of the year due to injury, then last year was again a starting guard but missed three games due to injury. This spring Miami coaches used him as the first team left tackle, but his best position is guard and if Zion Nelson comes back healthy or 5-star signee Samson Okunlola emerges at LT then you’ll see Rivers starting at RG this year.
* QB Tyler Van Dyke burst onto the college scene in 2021 after D’Eriq King suffered a season-ending injury in Game 2. He was named the ACC Rookie of the Year as a second-year freshman after throwing for 2,931 yards with 25 passing touchdowns compared to just six interceptions. But this past season he struggled in a new offense under Josh Gattis and also essentially missed the last half of the year injured. Van Dyke ended with 1,835 passing yards and 10 TDs with five INTs. With a new QB friendly system in place this year with Shannon Dawson taking over, we expect to see more the Van Dyke of 2021 and less the Van Dyke of last season.
BATTLING TO START (1)
* LB Corey Flagg, Jr. is a two-year starter at Miami, but he was playing behind Washington State transfer Francisco Mauigoa this spring, and we don’t anticipate that changing in the fall. But Flagg can also work at OLB so we see him more in the “battling to start” category than a most-likely backup. He had 56 tackles last year along with 10.5 TFL and 2.5 sacks, so even though he’s undersized at 5-11 and 230 pounds he can be effective when called upon.
ANTICIPATED BACKUP (5)
* S Brian Balom entered the transfer portal before the spring, then opted to return to the team. He will again be a depth guy considering All-American Kam Kinchens and highly regarded James Williams are going to be the starting safeties.
* RB Don Chaney had 322 yards rushing and three touchdowns as a true freshman in 2020, adding 143 receiving yards. But he suffered a season-ending injury in the second game of the 2021 season, then missed all but one game last year injured. With Henry Parrish the returning starter and acclaimed true freshman Mark Fletcher getting rave reviews since arriving this summer, we think it’s an uphill climb for Chaney to be the starter.
* TE Dominic Mammarelli’s dealt with injury issues at UM, including missing the 2021 season. With Elijah Arroyo, Jaleel Skinner and Oregon transfer Cam McCormick plus a pair of talented freshmen at tight end, Mammarelli will be a depth guy.
* OL Chris Washington was a bit of a project when he came in, needing to gain weight and strength, and he’s played in 12 games off the bench in his three years at UM.
* DE Chantz Williams was in the rotation in 2021 and had 2.5 sacks, but then Miami brought in transfer ends Akheem Mesidor and Mitchell Agude last year and he wound up down the depth chart and had 13 tackles, 2.5 for losses. With Mesidor back on one side it’s Jahfari Harvey and highly touted second-year end Nyjalik Kelly battling to start on the other side. So Williams has his work cut out for reps again this season.
SOUTH FLORIDA TOP-RATED PLAYERS THAT GOT AWAY (3)
* Donell Harris. 4-star signed with Texas A&M. Played in just 2 games off the bench in 2020 and two again in 2021. He announced his decision to transfer from the Aggies late last season and will play for Louisiana-Monroe this year.
* Marcus Rosemy. 4-star signed with Georgia. Played in six games in 2020, suffering a season-ending ankle injury vs. UF. Ended season with two catches. In 2021 he started four games and finished with seven catches for 94 yards, then this past season had 29 catches for 337 yards. Not helping his goal of a breakout 2023 season: he was arrested for reckless driving and speeding in late May.
* Derek Wingo. 5 star signed with Florida. Was a backup in 2020, then in 2021 started once and appeared in every game and had 15 tackles. This past season he started the final two games and played off the bench in the prior 10. He ended with 24 tackles and a pair of sacks.
WR Xavier Restrepo (photo by Neil Gershman)
ANALYSIS
Of the 24 players in this class, who were the difference-makers? Well, Jose Borregales, D’Eriq King and Quincy Roche … for a year each. Of the 12 players that transferred out you got one solid season from Jaylan Knighton and arguably one from Key’Shawn Smith.
The anticipated returning starters Tyler Van Dyke, Xavier Restrepo and Jalen Rivers should be in line for really good years in 2023. But Van Dyke’s had one good year and Restrepo and Rivers have been held back by injury.
Corey Flagg? He started two years but wasn’t good enough to be a first-teamer this spring, falling behind Washington State transfer Francisco Mauigoa.
The five other “anticipated backups” on the list aren’t likely to do much this year with the exception of Chaney … but he’ll need to stay healthy and probably have to have guys like Henry Parrish or Mark Fletcher struggle for him to really emerge.
Now digest all the above.
What it really says is that of this entire 24-player class you got – if you add up all the years of good production – eight total years out of a potential 87 (21 players x four potential years in the program plus three players with one year as transfers). And in those eight total years we are including two seasons from Corey Flagg and one from Key’Shawn Smith that were nothing special.
So five quality seasons out of 87 potential seasons with these guys on the roster gives you what we’ll call a quality return rate of 5.7 percent.
That’s called failure.
There clearly was nowhere near the kind of production you want to see from any Miami recruiting class here. And that’s part of how you wind up with a 5-7 season like we saw in 2022.
Add up the 2019 and 2020 classes and you just see way too many recruiting misses. That is what Mario Cristobal is trying to reverse.
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