STATE OF THE U 2023: 2019 recruiting class analysis
CaneSport kicked off its annual Miami Hurricanes State of The U series yesterday with Gary Ferman’s big picture column. Today it’s on to breaking down the recruiting classes that make up the backbone of the team’s roster. After all, whenever you evaluate the state of a program, the first thing you look at is the personnel you bring in and how they are developed. In this particular case, the Miami roster Mario Cristobal inherited was formed starting with the Class of 2019. That was Manny Diaz’s first year taking over the program.
In the days ahead we will analyze each of the classes that Diaz brought in that formed the foundation of a Mario Cristobal team that went 5-7 last season. These classes lay bare why Cristobal saw the need to bring in 11 transfer portal additions last year and 15 more this cycle. There are gaping holes in the personnel that was recruited prior to his tenure at Miami, and how it was developed.
So now, without further ado, let’s look at the class (which was ranked No. 26 in the nation) that would be redshirt seniors for Cristobal this year … if these players had remained with the program:
GRADUATED MIAMI / LEFT FOR NFL EARLY (7)
* S Bubba Bolden transferred in from USC and had a breakout 2020 season with a team leading 74 tackles. He had some issues in the latter part of the season and returned in 2021 as a senior but suffered a midseason injury and wound up playing in seven games (he had 42 tackles, 3.5 for losses). He went undrafted.
* Lou Hedley was a tattooed Australian fan favorite, he was Miami’s punter from 2019-22 and was one of the ACC’s top punters, consistently helping the Canes flip field position. This past season he averaged 45.3 yards per punt (his career best was 47.2 yards in 2020). For his career 77 of 206 attempts (37.4 percent) were inside the opponent’s 20, and last season it was 50 percent.
* DE Trevon Hill had 9.5 TFL and 4.5 sacks in 2019 working behind Gregory Rousseau and Jon Garvin, and the Virginia Tech grad transfer was an undrafted free agent. He didn’t have a big impact in his one year at Miami but had some bright moments.
* OL Tommy Kennedy was a big disappointment. The Butler transfer who chose Miami over offers from Oklahoma, Texas, Boston College, Arizona State and Arizona, among others, couldn’t crack the two deep. It was quickly apparent when he arrived that he just didn’t have the strength you need at the ACC level of play. When he arrived, he was supposed to be an answer at a weak tackle spot. Instead he just took up a scholarship spot before his eligibility ended.
* DL Chigozie Nnoruka had 12 tackles and a sack in 2019, not making a big impact as a backup after transferring as a graduate to Miami from UCLA. So this could probably be chalked up to a transfer miss since he did take a spot in a recruiting class that could have been used for a four to five year guy. He was not taken in the NFL Draft.
* WR KJ Osborn was a grad transfer from Buffalo, and he turned into Miami’s top receiver in 2019 with 50 catches for 547 yards. Both led the team. He was a fifth round NFL Draft pick of the Minnesota Vikings in 2020 and in 2021 had 50 receptions for 655 yards with seven TDs. This past season he had 60 receptions for 650 yards and five scores.
* Jaelan Phillips turned himself into a first round NFL draft pick with his hard work at UM, breaking out in 2020 with 15.5 TFL and eight sacks. In his rookie year with the Dolphins he had 42 tackles and 8.5 sacks. Last season he stood out with 58 tackles and seven sacks.
Jaelan Phillips (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
TRANSFERS OUT FROM MIAMI / DEPARTED (NOT FOR NFL) WITH ELIGIBILITY REMAINING (12)
* DL Jason Blissett retired due to recurring concussion issues. He never made an impact on the field.
* Jakai Clark started at right guard in 2019, then in 2020 at left guard before becoming the starting center in 2021 and 2022. He never had enough physicality to be a difference-maker and transferred out after Miami added UCF transfer Matt Lee as the team’s new starting center this year. Clark will play at SMU this coming season under a familiar name to Miami fans – former coordinator Rhett Lashlee.
* OL Adam Elgammal never made headway on the depth chart, opted out in 2020 due to COVID and left the team prior to 2021.
* TE Larry Hodges was suspended in the spring of 2021 due to legal issues, then wound up playing in seven games mainly on special teams. He went into the transfer portal in February of last year and was planning to go to Middle Tennessee State (yes, the team that upset Miami last year) but never wound up there. It appears he graduated community college in the spring of this year but there is no sign he’s latched on with any new program.
* DT Jalar Holley ended his Cane career best known for his dance moves on the sideline that got some national play. The 2019 signee never had an impact on the field and went into the transfer portal in the summer of 2021. He wound up at Charlotte and started seven games there in 2021, finishing with 13 tackles, two TFL and a sack. This past season he started seven games there at DT and had 39 tackles, 1.5 TFL and a sack.
* LB Avery Huff has a lot of ability, but the 2019 signee has struggled to grasp the mental side of the game. He played off the bench for three years in mainly a special teams role and transferred to FIU for this season.
* Tate Martell worked at QB and WR but never found a place to make an impact and left the program. He wound up a big disappointment for fans who thought his arrival from Ohio State heralded a multidimensional signal caller that would take the Miami offense into the stratosphere. Martell wound up finding a new home at UNLV in 2021 but lost the starting QB battle and wound up completing two of six passes for 27 yards. He announced his retirement from football that January.
* RB Asa Martin came to UM after Auburn blew his redshirt freshman year by unnecessarily playing him in six games in the 2018 season. But the 4-star out of high school – he was Alabama’s Gatorade Player of the Year – barely had a cup of coffee at Miami before entering the transfer portal and landing at Memphis. In 2020 at Memphis he started three games and ran for 233 yards on 55 attempts with a TD, then in 2021 ran 34 times for 108 yards, adding 14 catches for 150 yards (he had four total TDs). Last season as a redshirt senior he started three games and ran 85 times for 435 yards with 7 TDs, adding 36 catches for 312 yards and another score
* QB Peyton Matocha was buried down the depth chart, a miss in recruiting. He graduated and left the program with eligibility remaining.
* Jeremiah Payton was a highly touted WR recruit in the Class of 2019 but he struggled with injury issues and never made an impact. He ended his Cane tenure with six receptions in two years and entered the transfer portal in September of 2021. He was planning to transfer to Alabama A&M but never played there and this past season wound up at Butler – he played in nine games and had 381 receiving yards with a TD. It appears he has not found a new home for this coming season.
* DL Cameron Williams was a 2019 signee who started one game in 2020 (nine tackles, 1.5 for loss) but left the program before the 2021 season.
* Christian Williams shocked a lot of people when he left the team in 2020 after he was going to be a backup CB. He landed at USF and in 2021 started four games and had 20 tackles and two interceptions. This past season he started all 10 games in which he played and had 40 tackles with three PBU, a TFL and fumble recovery.
Te’Cory Couch (photo by Ron Bailey)
ANTICIPATED STARTER AT MIAMI THIS SEASON (1)
* Te’Cory Couch emerged in 2020 as a reliable cornerback and has started games the last three seasons (12 starts last year, six in 2021 and four in 2020). He hasn’t put together a great season yet, but is a solid performer at STAR/nickel and is expected to start in that role once again in Lance Guidry’s new defense. Last season he had 37 tackles and six PBU, ranking second on the team.
BATTLING TO START (3)
* DT Jared Harrison-Hunte had some bright moments early in his career but since then injuries have held him back (including missing this spring). In 2020 he started one game and had six TFL and three sacks, and in 2021 he started eight games but wasn’t a big difference maker with 6.5 TFL and two sacks. This past season he was in a backup role and had 16 tackles with two sacks. Miami is thin at tackle, with only Leonard Taylor a proven playmaker. So in fall camp Harrison-Hunte will battle transfer Branson Deen (Purdue) and others for the starting job. Right now he’s on the outside looking in.
* DE Jahfari Harvey started seven games last season and had 7.5 TFL and 5.5 sacks. So pretty good, but not great. He also started five games in 2021 and one in 2020. So you’d think he’s likely a shoe-in to start this season with DE Mitchell Agude gone. But Miami coaches are really impressed with sophomore Nyjalik Kelly, so it’s no sure thing that Harvey will start this season.
* Zion Nelson started every game at left tackle as a freshman and then started most of 2020 after beginning the season on the bench coming off injury. In 2021 he started all 12 games at left tackle again, earning All-ACC honorable mention honors and having some project him as a possible high NFL pick. But then knee issues popped up and he wasn’t able to play virtually all of 2022. It’s unclear if he’ll be able to stay healthy this season, either, so he has a lot to prove. Jalen Rivers worked at first team LT in the spring, and 5-star signee Samson Okunlola could emerge as the starter there which would allow Rivers to move back to his more natural guard position … unless Nelson is back in form.
ANTICIPATED BACKUP AT MIAMI (1)
* Keontra Smith moved from safety to Striker in 2020, working as a backup and finishing with 22 tackles, two for losses. In 2021 he played weakside linebacker and Striker and wound up starting four games while missing some time due to injury – he finished with 38 tackles, five for loss, with three sacks. This past season he started three games and had 33 tackles, 3 TFL and 1.5 sacks. He’s expected to be a backup this year with Wesley Bissainthe emerging on the outside, Francisco Mauigoa a high performing transfer MLB from Washington State and a second portal window LB add of KJ Cloyd from Louisville.
SOUTH FLORIDA TOP-RATED PLAYERS THAT GOT AWAY (7)
* Jordan Battle. 4 star signed with Alabama. He emerged as a starter in 2020 and was third on the team with 66 tackles, then in 2021 was a first team All-American after finishing with 86 tackles, three interceptions (two returned for touchdowns) and three pass breakups. Last season he was a second-team All-American and had 71 tackles, 2 PBU and an interception. He was a third round NFL draft pick.
* Khris Bogle. 4 star signed with Florida. Had 28 tackles with four sacks in 2020, his first real role on the team, then in 2021 was a backup and had 23 tackles and 1.5 sacks. After that season he transferred to Michigan State, where last year he played off the bench in the first three games, then started for the first time but got hurt that game and missed the final eight with injury. He had 3 TFL and a sack in 132 total reps.
* Akeem Dent. 5 star signed with FSU. Dent started 10 games in 2020-21 but didn’t stand out, then in 2021 had eight starts and finished with 44 tackles, an interception and four pass breakups. This past season he started 12 games and had 53 tackles and 4 PBU. He is considered one of the ACC’s better defensive returners this season.
* John Dunmore. 4 star signed with Penn State. Never panned out at Penn State and announced he would transfer to FAU in December of 2020. But he never enrolled there, and then in June of 2021 he announced his transfer to Oregon State. His 2021 season saw him play in only three games, with one catch. Last year as a redshirt sophomore he played off the bench and had nine catches for 95 yards.
* Kaiir Elam. 4 star signed with Florida. He started every game in 2020 and had 39 tackles with two INTs, and in 2021 was an All-SEC First Team pick with 29 tackles, five pass breakups and an interception. He declared for the NFL Draft after the season and was picked with the 23rd pick of the first round by the Buffalo Bills. This past season he had 40 tackles and two interceptions for the Bills.
* Dontae Lucas. 4 star signed with FSU. Has started seven games in 2019 at both guard spots, then in 2020 started seven games at left guard. Then in 2021 he played in the first two games off the bench before being dismissed from the team. He entered the transfer portal and landed at South Alabama, where he started 10 games last season.
* Mark-Antony Richards. Ahmmon Richards’ brother was a 4-star who signed with Auburn but never found a role and transferred to UCF in 2021. He ended that season with 48 carries for 309 yards, third-most on the team, adding eight catches for 76 yards. Then this past season he only played in the SMU and Temple games (9 reps total).
–Note that CB Tyrique Stevenson and WR Frank Ladson were misses in this class, but ultimately returned home via the portal. So because of that we are not including them in this section.
ANALYSIS
As you go through the information above, you’ll note 17 of the 24 players Diaz took in this class really never had much of an impact. And even those we would list as the impact guys – Bubba Bolden, Jakai Clark, Zion Nelson, Lou Hedley, KJ Osborn, Jaelan Phillips and Te’Cory Couch – weren’t top tier producers over multiple seasons other than maybe Hedley.
It’s also interesting that of the seven players that didn’t transfer out/depart for reasons other than the NFL that every single one of them was either a JUCO arrival or a transfer arrival. There was not a single recruited player out of high school in this class that made it through 3-5 years and went to the NFL or simply played out his time and went into the workforce.
Some numbers for you:
Thirteen of the 24 in this class never started a single game.
Eight transferred out.
Four more simply left the team/were forced out.
In all, 48 percent of the signees transferred to another program or simply left Miami.
The success rate? With seven players we listed above in this analysis that we consider making an impact that’s 29.2 percent.
This class also is perhaps an argument for why the transfer portal is more a short-term fix but not a long-term answer. You’ve got guys like Phillips and Bolden that you’d point to and say they were hits in the portal. But they are one and two-year fixes, not guys that can contribute or start for three or four years.
There simply were not enough difference-makers in this class, and you can’t ignore the misses with guys like Adam Elgammal, Peyton Matocha, Tommy Kennedy, Tate Martell, Larry Hodges, Jeremiah Payton, Jalar Holley, Avery Huff, Cameron Williams, Christian Williams and Asa Martin.
Of the area guys UM missed out on signing, the most painful ones were Battle, Dent and Elam.
When you miss in recruiting like UM did this class (and with future class breakdowns still to come), the transfer portal is a way to help fix the missing roster pieces. In a perfect world, though, you’re landing the top talent in recruiting and developing those guys to where you have that quality depth. Then it becomes a cycle where those guys can step up as starters when the players ahead of them leave for the NFL.
That’s called building a championship team, and it’s what Mario Cristobal is seeking to fix off classes like the one outlined above.
The post STATE OF THE U 2023: 2019 recruiting class analysis appeared first on On3.
