Spencer’s Sheet: Best bets, prop picks for Ohio State versus Maryland
This college football season marks the first of its kind: a year when Ohio residents can wager on Ohio State football. Lettermen Row’s Spencer Holbrook isn’t betting on Buckeyes games because he covers the team, but he’s here to give his picks as if he was to help fans who might want some action on Ohio State games.
COLUMBUS — Ohio State needed a week off after the win over Notre Dame to rest, recover, regroup and refocus.
We’ll just say the same could be said for Spencer’s Sheet, the likable loser of the internet. This column is a blast to write, even if we’re 2-7 on picks this season.
But we’re not going to give up just because the first four weeks started out with a few losses.
So before the Buckeyes kick off against Maryland this weekend, we’re back on the saddle making picks — and looking to keep the momentum gained from finding a winner on the field when the Buckeyes beat Notre Dame a couple of weeks ago. Let’s roll with three official plays on Ohio State this week.
All odds via Fanduel Sportsbook
The basics
Time: Noon ESTTV Channel: FOXDate: Saturday, Oct. 7Location: Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OhioWeather: High of 54º, 7% chance of rain during day, winds 17 mph with gusts of 30 mphThe line: Ohio State is a 19.5-point favorite, per FanDuel.Over/under: 57.5 points
The trends
Ohio State is 1-2-1 against the spread this season, failing to cover against both Indiana and Youngstown State but covering against Western Kentucky and pushing at Notre DameThe Buckeyes have went over the total just once in their first four gamesOhio State has failed to cover the 25-point spread in a 43-30 win over Maryland last seasonOhio State is 2-0 against the spread at home against Maryland under Ryan Day. The Buckeyes have averaged 69.5 points per game in those two games.Maryland is 3-2 against the spread this season.Maryland has covered the spread in its last three gamesThe total has gone over in three of the Terrapins’ five games played so far this seasonOhio State is 1-4 against the spread in its last five Big Ten games
The spread
Ohio State -19.5 (-115)
Maryland +19.5 (-105)
Why Ohio State will cover: Ohio State has better skill talent, and Maryland won’t be able to slow down a Buckeyes offense that gained a lot of momentum two weeks ago in Notre Dame Stadium. And the Buckeyes have found a way to shut down every offense they have faced. Is Maryland really going to be the team to buck that trend — especially on the road? Ohio State will begin to hit its stride out of the idle week and earn a big, somewhat of a statement win to kick off this eight-game stretch to end the season.
Why it wont: Maryland can test the Ohio State defense in ways that no other opponent has been able to yet this season. And while the Buckeyes look like they’re one of the best defenses in the country, they need to prove it against better offensive collections. Maryland will find its way down the field for a few scores while Ohio State is still finding its offensive footing.
The pick
Under 57.5 (-115): My first score prediction was 41-20, but I downgraded it to an official pick of 41-14 in favor of the Buckeyes. That lines up with some smart people with advanced numbers, who have this number well under the 57.5. And with the weather expected Saturday in Columbus to be gloomy, and more importantly windy, the under is the smart play. Ohio State, in two games against Power Five opponents this season, has scored just 23 points (at Indiana) and 17 points (at Notre Dame). I would expect the Ohio State offense to turn it up a notch this week, even in the windy conditions, but I don’t trust Maryland to score a lot of points against this Buckeyes defense. We might be sweating late with a potential backdoor over situation, but the under is too smart not to play here.
The prop picks
Emeka Egbuka OVER 5.5 receptions (+122): Ohio State found success in its offense by targeting early, often and late against Notre Dame two weeks ago. He had seven catches on 11 targets, splitting the lead for the Buckeyes with tight end Cade Stover. Star outside wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. says he will play despite an ankle injury, and his role in the offense could be potentially limited. That’s why we’re going with Egbuka to have at least six catches for the Buckeyes on Saturday. It helps that he’s dangerous in the short passing game, averaging under 10 yards per target. With a windy game, Ohio State could turn to short, quick passes as a solution to move the ball. Expect a big day from Emeka Egbuka.
Taulia Tagovailoa UNDER 235.5 passing yards (-114): This play is partially due to the windy fall weather, but it also has to do with the Buckeyes secondary. Ohio State has allowed just 149 yards per game through the air this season, and that included games against pass-happy Western Kentucky and the talented Notre Dame offensive attack. The Buckeyes cornerbacks have been impressive so far this season, and there’s no reason to think that’ll change. Oh, and the Ohio State pass rush has a real chance to get into the backfield and make life difficult for Tagovailoa. Couple all of those factors with high winds in the Horseshoe, and it’ll be difficult for Tagovailia to come up with a big day in the passing game. Take his under on passing yards.
Season total: 2-7
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