SEC Gleaning: Offseason Takeaways

On Tuesday, we saw ESPN begin to leak out some Week Zero and Week One kickoff times. That means the start of the upcoming college football season is approaching quickly. Players across the college landscape are currently enjoying a quick summer vacation before reporting back to campus in June when the final offseason workout push begins.

Football is coming. Now let’s see where the Southeastern Conference sits just over 100 days away from kickoff.

The 2024 season will be a year of change for the SEC. The games on CBS are gone, the College Football Playoff has expanded to 12 teams, there are no divisions, and the addition of Oklahoma and Texas will likely hit some in the conference very hard (both good and bad) once the games begin. All of those factors create what will likely be a very exciting season that could bring an element of surprise to Saturdays in the fall.

With the spring transfer portal movement all but over, we have entered a quiet time in the college football calendar. Before things begin to pick up in June and July, now feels like a good time to start digging into the league and complete some information gathering. College football offseasons are much more busy in the modern landscape. Therefore, there can be plenty to learn.

After getting through the coaching carousel, two transfer portal windows, and spring practice, it’s time to take a look at some big picture takeaways for the conference. In our latest at KSR+, we are going to run through all 16 teams and pull one takeaway from the offseason.

The season is quickly approaching. Let’s dive in.

Alabama: What does the Kalen DeBoer and Jalen Milroe partnership look like?

After a 25-3 run in two years at Washington, Kalen DeBoer has replaced Nick Saban at Alabama and inherits starting quarterback Jalen Milroe. The former top-100 recruit was a big play quarterback last season averaging 10.0 yards per attempt and owning an impressive explosive passing rate (26.4%). However, Milroe struggled with mid-range accuracy (52.3% completion rate on 65 passing attempts between 10-19 yards with four interceptions), and offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb did not follow DeBoer to Tuscaloosa. Add in the fact that Bama lost some serious star power at wideout, and there are reasons for concern.

If Milroe can find another gear in the new scheme, Alabama will be a legitimate national championship contender. If not, Alabama could slip to 8-4 thanks to a schedule that includes road trips to Wisconsin, Tennessee, LSU, and Oklahoma, plus a home tilt against Georgia. The story of the season in T-town is what Milroe looks like in the new offense.

Arkansas: Sam Pittman needs a big year from latest transfer class

Sam Pittman enters year five at Arkansas with 23-25 (11-23). To say this is a hot seat season for the 62-year-old head coach would be putting it lightly. We saw the former Georgia offensive line coach make some big staffing changes this season highlighted by bringing Bobby Petrino back to Fayetteville to call plays. That will be the No. 1 story surrounding the Hogs this season, but Pittman only gets a year six if some of the recent transfer additions perform well.

Arkansas added 21 transfers to the roster in the offseason and needs many of them to fill big roles. Five transfers on offense are projected starters highlighted by former Boise State quarterback Taylen Green (59.4% career completion percentage). The defense that loves to play plenty of press coverage will be full of transfers in the secondary. The Hogs will sink or swim with this transfer class.

Auburn: Rolling the dice with Payton Thorne

After missing on Lane Kiffin, pivoting to Hugh Freeze seemed like a very good fit for Auburn. Expectations on the Plains were high for the former Ole Miss and Liberty head coach, but the year one results were middling.

Freeze gave up play-calling duties and saw his first Auburn offense finish the year ranked No. 61 in success rate, No. 74 in points per drive, No. 79 in yards per play, and No. 92 in EPA per play. The offense was a problem and most of the blame was placed on the quarterback position.

There were staffing changes made, but Auburn is doubling down with former Michigan State transfer Payton Thorne at quarterback after the Big Ten transfer passed for over 200 yards just twice last season. The super senior is a career 60 percent passer who has only eclipsed 7.0 yards per attempt once during his career.

The move seems like a risky one for Freeze. If Thorne struggles again, Auburn likely flirts with a .500 record again. The play-calling switch needs to make a huge impact after Freeze and staff did not make a push for another transfer quarterback this offseason.

Florida: The DJ Lagway Card

Speaking of hot seats, Billy Napier really needs to bank some wins in year three. The Gators have the toughest schedule in college football again after three consecutive losing seasons. There are some intriguing returning pieces on both sides of the ball.

The pressure is on for Napier, but the play-calling head coach does have a potential trump card to play with true freshman quarterback DJ Lagway.

The five-star recruit was one of the best high school players in America last season and could give Florida a true dual-threat skill set and quickly become the face of the program. Former Wisconsin transfer Graham Mertz enters 2024 as the guy at quarterback, but Napier could decide to pull the plug at any point if things get rocky.

Florida has the most fascinating quarterback situation in the SEC to go along with a true hot seat season. How Napier plays his cards could determine his future in Gainesville.

Georgia: The Kings

An argument can be made that Georgia had surpassed Alabama after beating the Crimson Tide to claim the 2021 national championship. Even though the Tide ended UGA’s long winning streak back in December, Kirby Smart‘s program still looked like the best in college football.

With Nick Saban stepping down, Georgia is the clear top dog in a new-look SEC heading into a new playoff era. There is only one question remaining — how good can Smart’s dynasty become?

Georgia continues to load up in high school recruiting and is finding high-quality players in the transfer portal. Smart recently had to replace both coordinators and didn’t skip a beat. The Bulldogs are humming and will be yearly contenders. That leaves us wondering just how good this team could be in 2024.

The schedule is fairly brutal with road trips to Alabama (Sept. 28) and Texas (Oct. 19), but Smart’s team will likely be up to the challenge. Georgia is probably not done winning national championships, and over the next 5-10 years the rest of college football will be watching the monster in Athens to see how elite Smart can make the Bulldogs.

Kentucky: A return to the program’s offensive roots

During their rise under head coach Mark Stoops, Kentucky won games with a physical downhill run attack and a defense that did not give up explosive plays. The Wildcats were a ground-and-pound program, but they tried to make a change the last two seasons.

Stoops and Kentucky went with an NFL offense and turned their program over to two draft picks at quarterback hoping that an improved passing game is what would help the program find an extra gear. That never came. Will Levis got hurt in 2022, Devin Leary struggled in Kentucky’s pro-style structure in 2023, and the offensive line took major steps backward.

In 2024, we will likely see Kentucky return to its roots. New offensive coordinator Bush Hamdan is a college football lifer who had a cup of coffee in the NFL. Expect the new scheme to be more college football friendly. Stoops brought Eric Wolford back to help fix the problems on the offensive line. Throughout spring practice, the talk surrounding the offense was about getting back to running the football with more efficiency and using the quarterback in the run game. The latter is something the pro-syle design wanted seemingly no part of.

Kentucky’s offense will look more college football modern in 2024. That should result in the Wildcats becoming a true run-first team again that can play complementary football successfully. Stoops & Co. are ready to lean into their strength. Tagging the QB on run concepts will help open things up, but this year could sink or swim based on what improvements the offensive line makes.

LSU: Legitimate concerns on defense

LSU is undergoing a ton of change on offense. First-round picks Jaden Daniels, Malik Nabers, and Brian Thomas Jr. will be missed. Offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock bolted for Notre Dame. However, there are enough pieces established to believe in the Tigers on offense in year three under Brian Kelly. The real concerns are on defense.

Kelly hired defensive coordinator Blake Baker away from Missouri to fix some of the problems after LSU finished last season ranked No. 101 in success rate and No. 128 in EPA per play. Most notably, the defensive line is a concern. A rarity for LSU.

The Bayou Bengals have missed on multiple transfer targets and could have some big problems at the point of attack this season. After a terrible defense sunk what was a national championship-level offense in 2023, things could get tricky for Kelly in year three if the defense struggles.

Mississippi State: Points will be scored

Former Ole Miss and Oklahoma offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby became a head coach for the first time when Mississippi State hired him to replace Zach Arnett. The 40-year-old is Art Briles’ son-in-law and got his coaching start at Baylor learning the veer-and-shoot offense. That means a different style of play is coming to Starkville.

The Bulldogs will play with heavy tempo similar to Ole Miss and Tennessee. Under Lebby, the Bulldogs will become another team reliant on the deep choice offense that takes a ton of vertical swings in the passing game and uses extreme spacing to create running lanes. The personnel might not fit great in year one, but State will not be boring. This team will score some points and probably give up a lot of points.

After adding a bunch of offensive transfers, the Bulldogs will look to take some teams by surprise but a tough road slate (Texas, Georgia, Tennessee, and Ole Miss) likely puts a low ceiling on Lebby’s first team.

Missouri: Running it back

In many ways, Missouri will be a preseason darling in 2024. The Tigers had a banner season in 2023 winning 11 games beating Kansas State, Tennessee, Florida, and Ohio State. That will be extremely hard to top for Eliah Drinkwitz in year five after starting his career in Columbia without a winning season until year four. But some real pieces are in place.

Offensive coordinator Kirby Moore, quarterback Brady Cook, and wide receiver Luther Burden III each return. Georgia, Texas, and Ole Miss are all off the schedule. All the road trips are winnable. Things are aligning for another big season.

But Mizzou goes from the hunter to the hunted and will be without defensive coordinator Blake Baker, star tailback Cody Schrader, and multiple draft picks in the secondary. The ceiling is the playoff for the Tigers this season, and the floor also appears to be very high thanks to a fortunate schedule and strong returning production.

Oklahoma: SEC expectations

Expectations are clear at Oklahoma. The Sooners consider themselves to be a national championship-caliber operation and a true blue-blood program. The results back that up as this organization consistently pumps out double-digit win seasons. After a tough year one, Brent Venables got Oklahoma to 10 wins in year two, but this next challenge will be more difficult.

OU enters the SEC with a new starting quarterback, new offensive coordinator, and a schedule that includes road trips to Auburn, Ole Miss, Missouri, and LSU along with home tilts against Tennessee and Alabama. Oh, there’s also that yearly game against Texas in the Cotton Bowl.

Where does Oklahoma currently sit in the SEC hierarchy after dominating the Big 12? It feels like the Sooners are tier 2 at best heading into year one in the league. How does the fan base deal with that if instant results do not come in Norman?

Ole Miss: All-in on 2024

Lane Kiffin has led Ole Miss to 34 wins in his first four seasons at Ole Miss a pair of top-15 finishes. The Rebels finished a regular season at 10-2 for the second time under Kiffin in 2023 and return a ton off that roster. Once again, this program loaded up in the transfer portal and appears to have one of the best NIL situations in college football.

Ole Miss is all-in on the 2024 season.

Kiffin’s program might be the biggest winner in the conference with the elimination of divisions as the Rebels no longer have to play the SEC West gauntlet. The 2024 slate includes four former SEC East members with three very winnable road games (South Carolina, Arkansas, and Florida). The home slate is more difficult, but Kiffin has the looks of a top-10 roster in 2024.

Will that lead to the playoff? That is the expectation for the Rebels this season.

South Carolina: A new look offense

South Carolina turned the offense over to Spencer Rattler the last two seasons and jumped on the back of the pocket passer. Shane Beamer is now turning the offense over to redshirt freshman LaNorris Sellers. The 240-pound quarterback was a four-star prospect who can provide a real downhill running element.

In the transfer portal, Carolina likely spent big money to bring Arkansas tailback Rocket Sanders to Columbia. After an anemic rushing attack last season, the Gamecocks are attempting to flip the script in 2024 under second-year offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains.

Expect this South Carolina offense to look much different than the previous iterations under Beamer. The Gamecocks are hopeful that Sellers can become the face of the program, and that likely starts with an RPO-heavy attack that will want to run the football.

Tennessee: Nico time on Rocky Top

Tennessee’s collective spent a lot of money to bring former five-star recruit Nico Iamaleava to Knoxville. After a year sitting behind Joe Milton, we will see head coach Josh Heupel and Iamaleava join forces in 2024. The sophomore is the most intriguing player in the SEC heading into this season.

The young phenom looked the part in a Citrus Bowl win over Iowa, but only threw the ball 19 times in his only start. Iamaleava has a huge arm and appears to be a great scheme fit for Heupel’s veer-and-shoot super spread attack. With the Vols re-tooling in the secondary, Tennessee will likely need this offense to start humming at a top-five level again to reach expectations.

The former prized recruit has a ton of pressure on his shoulders in 2024.

Texas: Feels like championship or bust

No one is ever truly in championship or bust, but we’d be in denial if we refused to acknowledge what is at stake for Texas. Head coach Steve Sarkisian has done a terrific job building his roster in Austin and is still one of the best offensive play-callers in the sport. One year after leveling up and making the College Football Playoff, the Longhorns are now stepping up in class.

Texas enters the 2024 season as Georgia’s top competition in the SEC. The Longhorns host the Bulldogs while avoiding Alabama and LSU. The expectations only increased in the offseason as Sarkisian’s staff improved their roster in the transfer portal and will enter the season as a clear top-five team.

It’s not championship or bust, but it feels like it with this schedule and roster coming off a 12-2 season.

Texas A&M: A clean slate for Mike Elko

There was a lot of pressure on Texas A&M throughout the entire Jimbo Fisher era. The Aggies gave the former Florida State head coach a fully guaranteed contract, and the relationship was supposed to bring a national championship to College Station.

That never happened.

Mike Elko has returned to College Station, and the expectations bar will be lowered early on for a coach who is familiar with Aggieland. Elko went to work quickly in the transfer portal, made a strong offensive coordinator hire plucking Collin Klein from Kansas State, and Conner Weigman gives the new staff an intriguing talent at quarterback.

There was not a ton learned about the Aggies in the spring, but less pressure entering a season could do this program some good and potentially allow A&M to sneak up on some teams if the Klein and Weigman partnership hits the ground running.

Vanderbilt: New Mexico State Commodores

Year three was a significant step back for Clark Lea‘s Vanderbilt program. After breaking a long SEC losing streak the Commodores started another long losing streak as the offense regressed in a big way, and the defense continued to struggle. The Vandy alum made some big changes heading into year four.

The most notable ones are on offense. Offensive coordinator Tim Beck and quarterback Diego Pavia will be running the show in Nashville this season. Former NMSU head coach Jerry Kill has also joined Vandy’s staff in an off-field role.

The Aggies won 17 games in two years under Kill and finished with a 10-3 regular season record highlighted by a win over Auburn before losing to Liberty in the C-USA Championship Game. Pavia led the team in rushing yards (923), accumulated 33 total touchdowns, and averaged 8.1 yards per attempt for an offense that finished No. 13 overall in success rate.

Defensive questions still hover around Vandy, but Lea is all-in on the New Mexico State blueprint, and Pavia is one of the biggest wild cards in the conference. That could make the Commodores interesting.

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