Scouting the opponent: Florida Gators
It’s no longer an SEC East showdown, but Tennessee’s annual clash with Florida will still be an enormous game on the schedule for both teams. It will also be a huge day for Vol fans, who will finally get to enjoy the SEC home opener on Oct. 12.
The first two weeks of October will be a ‘Hot Seat Bowl’ run for Tennessee.
The Vols will begin the month at Arkansas and embattled head coach Sam Pittman.
If there’s an SEC head coach facing as much pressure as Pittman it’s Florida’s Billy Napier.
Napier is only entering his third year at the helm in Gainesville, but the natives are restless, and understandably so given the expectations with that program compared with the results Napier has delivered thus far.
In two years Napier is off to an 11-14 start, the worst two-year start for a head coach in Gainesville since Charlie Pell more than 40 years ago.
Florida hasn’t had three straight losing seasons since the 1940s. Napier may not survive being the first guy to pull the trick in 80 years.
2023 record: 5-7, 3-5 SEC
Head coach: Billy Napier (51-26 record over all, 11-14 at Florida, entering 3rd year)
SEASON OUTLOOK: OFFENSE
Talent shouldn’t be an issue for Florida on offense.
They bring back experience at quarterback in Graham Mertz who was very solid in his first year after transferring from Wisconsin.
Mertz missed the last game of the regular season after suffering a broken collarbone, but threw for 2,903 yards with 20 TDs and just three interceptions while completing 73% of his passes. Mertz was healthy and participated in spring practice.
Pro Football Focus lists Mertz as one of its top-five quarterback prospects in the current NFL draft class.
Former five-star recruit, freshman DJ Lagway is waiting in the wings at the quarterback spot.
Mertz lost his top target in Ricky Piersall but Eugene Wilson III flashed star potential as a freshman (61 rec., 538 yards, team high 6 TDs). He looks poised to move into a bigger role this fall and he and Mertz should have some improved chemistry in year two.
Florida will be looking for Arizona State transfer Elijah Badger to come in and make in impact alongside Wilson. Badger pulled in 65 catches for 713 yards and three touchdowns for the Sun Devils last season.
Wisconsin transfer Chimere Dike (19 rec., 328 yards in ’23) is another addition to the wide receiver group.
Tight end Arlis Boardingham (26 rec., 289 yards, 4 TDs) flashed some ability as a freshman.
The Gators backfield suffered a big blow when Travis Etienne transferred within the conference to Georgia. Montrell Johnson doesn’t seem to have Etienne’s reputation as a big play guy, but it was Johnson who actually led Florida in rushing last year (817 yards), and he just barely trailed Etienne in yards per attempt (5.7 to 5.4).
Treyaun Webb (26 att, 164 yards in ’23) and freshman Jadan Baugh look to be in line to share the workload in the ground game.
Up front the Gators had difficulty consistently opening holes last year. Injuries on the offensive line were a factor, but Florida average a full 1.5 yards less per carry in 2023 than it did in 2022 (5.84 ypc in ’22 compared to 4.27 in ’23). That’s a huge drop off.
The Gators also struggled in pass protection, giving up 39 on the season.
Getting left tackle Austin Barber back from a midseason injury should help. Floirda needs San Diego State transfer Brandon Dickson-Crenshaw to be a plug-and-play starter.
The interior of the line is a question mark, Florida must replace both starting guards from last season and hope that center Jake Slaughter builds on the experience he got last year when he took over the job due to injury.
SEASON OUTLOOK: DEFENSE
The Gators probably have enough offensive firepower to compete with most everyone in the SEC.
Barring some enormous improvement though they don’t have the defense to be better than a middle-of-the-pack team in the league.
The defense took a hit when it lost one of its most talented players, Princely Umanmielen, to Ole Miss via the transfer portal.
Florida stifled Tennessee and Utah in big early season wins last season, but the defense fell apart late. Big time.
LSU racked up 701 yards on the Gators, Mizzou went for 508 in a pair of Florida losses.
The Gators ended up surrendering 382 yards per game to opponents (11th in the SEC), 27.58 ppg (11th in the SEC). And 6.44 yards (13th in the SEC)
The Gators struggled in a lot of areas defensively in 2023, but stopping the run was a problem. The Gators gave up 156 yards per game on the ground and a very healthy 4.85 yards per attempt. Only Vanderbilt allowed more yards per rush.
Getting better without Umanmielen could be tough.
At one edge Justus Boone, who missed the season after tearing his ACL in camp last August, will need to come back in fine form. On the other side Tyreke Sapp will need to build on last year’s 2.0, 4.5 TFL performance if the Gators are going to compensate for losing Umanmielen.
Penn transfer Joey Slackman was the Ivy League Defensive Player of the Year. He was brought in to bolster the interior of that front.
Shemar James should be one of the strengths of the defense. He finished second on the team last season with 54 tackles despite playing in just eight games.
South Carolina transfer Grayson Howard was added to the mix at linebacker in the offseason. He’s projected as a starter despite redshirting and recording nine solo tackles for the Gamecocks last season.
The secondary should definitely be the strength of the defense.
Jordan Castell was not a true freshman starter for the Gators at safety last year, he also led the team with 60 tackles.
Florida’s cornerbacks had just one interception last season, and as a team the Gators had an SEC low three.
In fact generating takeaways of any sort was a massive problem for the defense. Florida forced just seven turnovers on the year in 2023. That was an absurdly low total. Mississippi State, with 12, was next-to-last in the SEC, five better than the Gators.
Back to the secondary, the Gators brought in Washington safety Asa Turner and Colorado cornerback Cormani McClain.
Returning senior corner Jason Marshall has 18 PBUs in the last two seasons.
FINAL SEASON OUTLOOK
Florida looks like they’re going to be able to score some points.
If you want to nitpick; they have to figure some things out up front, the at least one wide receiver transfer has to hit and the running back depth isn’t great.
But they have a proven guy under center who was incredibly efficient last year even on a team that wasn’t very good. And as we all know, that counts for a lot.
Wilson is going to need to take a step forward (very possible) and Johnson will have to be a workhorse at tailback, but the Florida offense doesn’t look to shabby.
Defensively though, average might be kind. At least in talking about the front seven.
Even in years when Florida hasn’t been great, it’s still pretty common to see first round talent in the front seven. That doesn’t look to be the case this season with Umanmielen out of the picture.
Even with Umanmielen Florida was one of the worst pass rushing teams in the SEC last season. The Gators ranked 12th in the league with 22 sacks. Umanmielen (7.0) had about a third of them.
Florida has some nice pieces in the secondary, and Castell is a star, but defensively they just don’t look like they have enough difference makers. Certainly not top-shelf SEC playmakers.
Maybe Mertz can take his game to a whole other level and carry this team somewhere, but right now it’s probably 50/50 (or worse) as to whether Napier survives.
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