Schedule Breakdown: Detailing the three most pivotal games for Michigan State in 2023
East Lansing, Mich. – In the first of series of articles detailing Michigan State’s 2023 football schedule, today SpartanMag publisher Jim Comparoni offers his opinion on the three most pivotal games of the upcoming season for the Spartans.
1. vs. Michigan, Oct. 21, at Spartan Stadium
The hatred is always palpable in this unholy series. After last year’s post-game fight in the tunnel at Michigan Stadium, things need to take a civilized step forward. But a thaw in this cold war is unlikely.
Michigan State head coach Mel Tucker told his players all week prior to last year’s game not to bite on Michigan’s bait. But seven numbskulls couldn’t help themselves, were suspended by Tucker and charged by a fanboy prosecutor in Ann Arbor.
I’m not saying they should have done it this way, but if those seven Michigan State players had fought on the field after the game instead of in the tunnel, the incident would have been no uglier, there probably would have been suspensions on both sides, and the fanboy prosecutor would have had no case. Criticize me all you want, but tell me what part of this paragraph is untrue.
The incident was regrettable all the way around, terrible for college football, a stain on this rivalry, and – deep down – Jim Harbaugh loved it.
Michigan State has scored a few stunning victories in this rivalry, sometimes despite playing against a steep talent disadvantage. From a June point of view, it’s hard to imagine Michigan State pulling off Tucker’s third win in four years against a Michigan team that could be even better than last year’s, with a Spartan team that has unproven players throughout its passing attack and a defense that is trying to regain respect after two straight seasons outside the nation Top 100 in yardage allowed.
In 2022, Michigan controlled the line of scrimmage against Michigan State, but the Spartan defense bucked up in the red zone and forced four field goal attempts.
Michigan State played reasonably well on offense in the first half behind former Spartan wide receiver Keon Coleman, trailed 13-7 at halftime, but couldn’t move the ball in the second half.
Still, the Spartans were within striking distance, down 22-7 early in the fourth quarter when the Spartans’ long-snapping problems devolved into a crisis, resulting in a botched punt attempt. This handed Michigan a short field, an 8-yard TD drive, and a 29-7 final score.
Michigan’s cowardly schedule probably will not present the Wolverines with a ranked opponent prior to this game in late October. Michigan’s players will be hungry for an opponent with a pulse, and the backstory for this rivalry will provide them with one.
Whether or not Michigan State can compete favorably remains to be seen. If the Spartans stand firm against this national Top 5 opponent, it would be a good sign that Tucker’s team is capable of standing tall in winnable games in the second half of the season.
And if Michigan State can generate one of its storybook style upsets of Michigan, it would make a 7-5 or 8-4 season extremely palatable to the Spartan fanbase. That’s putting it lightly. There has always been hatred for the maize and blue in East Lansing, but I can’t remember a time in the past 35 years when the acrimony has been this severe.
2. At Iowa, Sept. 30
This is a separation game. If Michigan State can defeat the Hawkeyes in Iowa City, the Spartans will establish in late September that they are a threat to be an upper division team in the Big Ten in 2023.
Michigan State has one of the hardest schedules in the country with four games against likely preseason Top 10 teams in Washington, Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State.
Dreamers and optimists can talk about trying to split those four games and make a run at Tucker’s second 11-win season.
But realists know that the path to a satisfactory season likely lays within the other eight games.
If Michigan State can beat Maryland at home on Sept. 23 and then go on the road and knock off Iowa, a 5-1 start to the season would be likely. That would cast considerable sunshine on what many are expecting to be a dreary season, and it would pump renewed enthusiasm into the program.
Can it be done?
Iowa’s offense was horrible last year despite going 8-5 and beating Kentucky in the Music City Bowl. Transfer quarterback Cade McNamara from Michigan will give the Hawkeyes a competent signal caller, something Iowa hasn’t had in a few years. Mix McNamara with a typically-tough Iowa defense, and the wins could mount.
Iowa led the Big Ten in total defense and yards allowed per play in 2022. Iowa was No. 2 in the nation in total defense.
The Hawkeyes lost linebacker Jack Campbell, a first-round pick, to the NFL, and four other standouts. But defensive coordinator Phil Parker will field a defense that is typically sturdy, smart, efficient, physical and opportunistic.
Iowa expects to have eight senior starters on defense; six of them are redshirt-seniors. That’s a lot of experience in Parker’s system.
Playing at Kinnick Stadium is a pain in the rear. Tucker has coached there once with the Spartans, losing 49-7 during the COVID season.
The Hawkeyes won’t be great, but their record might be. Iowa doesn’t have to play Michigan or Ohio State. The Hawkeyes might be an underdog only once this year, at Penn State on Oct. 28. Everything else, including road games at Wisconsin, Nebraska and Iowa State, is manageable.
Iowa conceivably could win 10 games in 2023, yet be the fifth most difficult opponent on Michigan State’s schedule. If that sounds like bad news, it is.
The Spartans have many more question marks than the Hawkeyes. That’s why this trip to Iowa City is difficult for Michigan State, but potentially pivotal.
Many Michigan State fans are looking to the visit from Washington on Sept. 16 as a chance to make a statement and establish a tone-setter for the season. A win over the Huskies would certainly do that, but back-to-back games against Maryland and Iowa will probably be more indicative of where this season is headed for Michigan State, and what kind of progress is being made.
3. vs. Washington, Sept. 16 at Spartan Stadium
The key word in this article is “pivotal.” I could argue that games against Maryland at home on Sept. 23 and at Minnesota on Oct. 28 will likely be more meaningful swing games in terms of determining whether Michigan State can get above .500 and stay there. But in terms of pivotal games, the visit from Washington could provide the fulcrum and pushing off point for what we can expect in the final nine games of the year.
Last year, Michigan State battled determinedly against a Washington team that was far better than anyone, outside of SpartanMag Pre-Snap Read consumers, realized.
Michigan State sustained injuries to arguably its two best defensive players the week prior to the Washington game – Xavier Henderson and Darius Snow.
I was sailgating with old college buddies somewhere out on Lake Washington prior to the game when one of them relayed news that Spartan WR Jayden Reed was also out for this game due to injury.
I paused for about :30 seconds and said, “Michigan State could lose this game by three touchdowns.”
My buddy picked up his phone and started typing. I think he was placing a bet, but I didn’t want to know. I don’t need that kind of responsibility. But if he was in fact placing a bet, I’m pretty sure he won.
A few days earlier, I had warned Michigan State fans that Washington QB Michael Pennix had improved markedly since his days at Indiana. I wrote that he looked every bit as good as Heisman Trophy favorite CJ Stroud. That seemed like crazy talk for some readers at the time, but I haven’t strayed from that opinion, other than to opine that he is actually better than Stroud when healthy.
Michigan State fought back from early errors and a 22-0 deficit to cut it to 29-14 early in the second half on a 26-yard TD reception by Tre Mosley.
But Washington had too much firepower for Michigan State, and most other opponents. Washington finished 11-2, ranked No. 8 in the final Associated Press poll.
Pennix is back. Washington should be explosive on offense once again. And, for a third straight year, Michigan State’s ambitious non-conference Power Five opponent will likely serve as a tone-setter for the season.
Two years ago, Michigan State defeated Miami in scorching hot South Florida. Vegas called it an upset. The SpartanMag Pre-Snap Read did not. We liked Michigan State in that matchup. We weren’t surprised that Michigan State won, but we were impressed by the physicality and dogged nature of the Spartans on that day. It was revealing, and a precursor to what would become an 11-2 season and a victory in a New Years Six bowl.
Last year, the loss to Washington was another tone setter. Michigan State would be plagued by injuries, leaky defense and double-digit deficits for most of the season.
This year, Michigan State’s most difficult non-conference opponent is likely to be a tone-setter once again. Pivotal, if you will. And it’s going to be a terrific challenge to make it a positive one.
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