Scarlet Sunrise: Where do Buckeyes rank among Big Ten teams in returning production?

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Where do Buckeyes rank among Big Ten teams in returning production?

Another way to provide more offseason context, and better gauge who Ohio State will be up against, is to examine ESPN’s returning production rankings. Returning production is a weighted evaluation created by ESPN’s Bill Connelly that factors in predictive personnel stats, like percentage of quarterback passing yards returning, that determine how much production a team is returning.

The idea is that, rather than just comparing the number or returning starters, you have a more analytical assessment of teams’ offseason turnover.

Connelly released his initial 2023 returning production rankings a few months ago. Here’s a rundown of which Big Ten teams are returning the most production, according to Connelly’s calculations.

RETURNING PRODUCTION

Note: These percentages don’t account for teams’ spring transfer window additions. The overall returning production percentage is shown in parentheses.

1. Michigan (81%, 5th nationally)

Offense: 84%, 4th nationallyDefense: 78%, 16th nationally

2. Rutgers (73%, 23rd nationally)

Offense: 73%, 37th nationallyDefense: 72%, 31st nationally

3. Wisconsin (72%, 27th nationally)

Offense: 75%, 30th nationallyDefense: 68%, 48th nationally

4. Nebraska (69%, 39th nationally)

Offense: 72%, 45th nationallyDefense: 66%, 51st nationally

5. Indiana (69%, 41st nationally)

Offense: 65%, 63rd nationallyDefense: 72%, 34th nationally

6. Michigan State (68%, 45th nationally)

Offense: 80%, 11th nationallyDefense: 56%, 83rd nationally

7. Ohio State (67%, 48th nationally)

Offense: 57%, 97th nationallyDefense: 77%, 20th nationally

8. Penn State (65%, 56th nationally)

Offense: 55%, 102nd nationallyDefense: 75%, 24th nationally

9. Purdue (65%, 57th nationally)

Offense: 71%, 49th nationallyDefense: 59%, 76th nationally

10. Maryland (64%, 65th nationally)

Offense: 64%, 68th nationallyDefense: 63%, 66th nationally

11. Illinois (63%, 71st nationally)

Offense: 64%, 71st nationallyDefense: 62%, 70th nationally

12. Minnesota (58%, 87th nationally)

Offense: 59%, 91st nationallyDefense: 57%, 78th nationally

13. Iowa (57%, 94th nationally)

Offense: 64%, 72nd nationallyDefense: 49%, 102nd nationally

14. Northwestern (56%, 96th nationally)

Offense: 46%, 115th nationallyDefense: 66%, 52nd nationally

FOR SOME MORE CONTEXT…

“On average, teams returning at least 80% of production improve by about 5.8 adjusted points per game in the following season’s SP+ ratings. That’s a pretty significant bump! For a team ranked 25th in SP+ last year, adding 5.8 points to its rating would have bumped it to 10th. And in the past two seasons that weren’t majorly impacted by a pandemic (2019 and 2022), the average improvement for teams at 80% or higher is 6.8 points.

“On the other end, about 10% of teams (roughly 14 per season) return less than 50% of their production in a given season. That results in an average drop of about 6.0 adjusted points in SP+. For a team that was 10th last year, losing 6.0 points would drop it to 28th. And for the rare team that returns less than 40% of production, the outlook is generally dire: Only about 2% of teams fall under 40%, but they fall by an average of 11.3 points. Wyoming (34%), Hawai’i (31%) and Nevada (22%) were all on the terribly low end of the scale last season, and they fell by a massive average of 17.4 points.”

Bill Connelly, ESPN

SP+ is what Connelly defines as a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency.” He’s been using and tweaking the predictive model since he debuted it at Football Outsiders in 2008. Returning production is one of three primary factors used to create SP+ projections. SP+ ratings reflect how many points better (positive) or worse (negative) a team is than the average FBS team in a given year.

OUTLOOK

Ohio State’s relatively low offensive returning production ranking isn’t a cause for concern. Whenever a team loses a starting quarterback, especially one like two-time Heisman Trophy finalist C.J. Stroud, that percentage is going to take a hit. The Buckeyes still have a pair of 1,000-yard receivers, an NFL-caliber tight end and a stable of running backs in the fold. The biggest question remains the offensive line, which will have three new starters.

By the way, programs like Ohio State that are at the top of the recruiting food chain can afford a lower returning production percentage than others that rely on fourth, fifth and, nowadays, sixth-year player production. Connelly even mentioned how, in 2016, the Buckeyes returned only 33% of their production from the previous year and still went 11-2 with a No. 6 final AP Poll ranking.

Ohio State returning 77% of its defensive production from 2022 is noteworthy. All the pieces are in place for a Year Two jump in defensive coordinator Jim Knowles’ system. That said, as has been the case for the Buckeyes’ defense in years past, the unit will be tasked with matching talent level to execution level.

Ohio State releases dates, times for football ticket sales

Ohio State has only six home games this season, two fewer than it had last year and two fewer than it will have in 2024. That makes each 2023 matchup inside the Horseshoe all the more significant.

The kickoff time for one of them — a Nov. 11 game against Michigan State — has already been announced. The Buckeyes will host the Spartans in primetime, starting at 7:30 p.m. on NBC.

This week, Ohio State Athletics released the times and dates for upcoming football ticket sales as well as information about different ticket packages.

Check it out here.

Next Man Up: How Buckeyes can replace pair of starting safeties

Lettermen Row continued its “Next Man Up” series, breaking down who is next in line to be a playmaker for Ohio State at positions that experienced turnover this offseason. This time, we highlighted the safety position, which saw the departure of Ronnie Hickman and Tanner McCalister to the NFL. Interestingly enough, both Hickman and McCalister signed as undrafted free agents with the Cleveland Browns.

The question at hand is, who will replace them?

Luckily for the Buckeyes and position coach Perry Eliano, Ohio State has options at safety, and it starts with Lathan Ransom, a Jim Thorpe Award semifinalist from last season.

To find out who could fill the other two spots to round out the back end, go here.

How Buckeyes can replace two-year starter Luke Wypler at center

Counting down

Buckeyes vs. Indiana: 104 days

Buckeyes vs. Michigan: 188 days

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