Scarlet Sunrise: ESPN ranks conferences with best chance of two CFP bids in 2023

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ESPN ranks conferences with best chance of two CFP bids in 2023

Ohio State backed its way into the College Football Playoff last season after USC lost to Utah in the Pac-12 Championship. The Buckeyes, who missed out on the Big Ten Championship for the second consecutive year, got into the four-team field, despite suffering a double-digit defeat to Michigan in the regular season finale for the second straight season.

The Wolverines, who wound up winning the Big Ten title again, got into the CFP as well.

Ohio State and Michigan were joined by SEC champion and eventual national champion Georgia, in addition to Big 12 Cinderella, TCU. In other words, the Big Ten was the only conference to send multiple teams to the CFP last season.

ESPN’s Heather Dinich ranked the conferences most likely to receive two CFP bids in 2023, leaning on ESPN’s Football Power Index as well as intuition about how the selection committee thinks:

SEC (FPI: 51% of multiple CFP bids)Big Ten (FPI: 25%)ACC (FPI: less than 1%)Pac-12 (FPI: less than 1%)Big 12 (FPI: less than 1%)

For reference, in the CFP’s nine-year existence, only three times has a conference earned two bids: The SEC did it in 2017 and 2021 (Alabama and Georgia both times), the ACC did it in 2020 (Clemson and temporary league member Notre Dame) and the Big Ten, of course, did it last year (Ohio State and Michigan).

Dinich wrote about each conference and why they will and won’t achieve the feat this season. She agrees with the corresponding multi-bid CFP FPI percentages for some leagues but not for others.

Here’s the case she made for the SEC…

“The committee has shown over the past decade it holds the SEC in high regard, and the conference has had multiple teams reach the playoff before — multiple times. Georgia doesn’t face Alabama or LSU during the regular season, so the SEC avoids a guaranteed loss for what should be one of its three best teams before the SEC championship game. It can happen if Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama or LSU roll through the regular season undefeated but lose in the SEC title game. It can also happen if Alabama doesn’t win the SEC but finishes with one loss and has a win over Big 12 champion Texas. Or if LSU doesn’t win the SEC, but finishes with one loss — at Alabama — and has a win over ACC champ Florida State.”

Heather Dinich, ESPN senior writer

And here’s an excerpt from the case she made for the Big Ten…

“The Big Ten did it last year, and Ohio State and Michigan have similar teams returning, with the most glaring exception being a new starting quarterback at Ohio State. The chances should be bumped marginally because Penn State has the talent and opportunity to join one of them in the debate. The Nittany Lions will have home-field advantage Nov. 11 against Michigan, where a win could create a three-way tie in the Big Ten East Division if Ohio State beats Penn State and Michigan beats Ohio State. Beyond winning the Big Ten, PSU’s ideal scenario would be to claim a win over the eventual Big Ten champs in a three-way tie, or the committee’s highest-ranked Big Ten team.”

Heather Dinich, ESPN senior writer

Making three predictions about Buckeyes safeties

We’ve reached the tail end of Lettermen Row “Safeties Week,” and that means it’s time for three predictions about the position group.

Will Lathan Ransom build on his breakout 2022? Is Cameron Martinez the starting nickel by the time the season opener rolls around, and, if so, what kind of season will he have? How will Ohio State fare at safety in the 2024 recruiting cycle?

We get into all of that with our predictions for the room this season.

Check it out here.

Three intriguing defensive tackle options for Ohio State

Three-star Bradenton (Fla.) IMG Academy defensive tackle Jayden Jackson committed to Oklahoma earlier this week. The Sooners surged late in Jackson’s recruitment after the Buckeyes appeared in line to get his pledge.

So now where does Ohio State go at the defensive tackle position in the 2024 cycle? The Buckeyes have a commitment from five-star Chicago (Ill.) St. Ignatius defensive lineman Justin Scott, but will they look to add another interior defensive lineman?

Lettermen Row explores and gives three potential defensive tackle prospects Ohio State could go after. Check it out here.

Counting down

Buckeyes vs. Indiana: 49 days
Buckeyes vs. Michigan: 134 days

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