Projecting what Alabama’s DL rotation might look like in 2023
During last year’s fall camp, I put together an article projecting what Alabama’s defensive line rotation could look like in 2022. Over the past six years, the Crimson Tide have typically utilized six players in their main rotation (over 20% of the defensive snaps). That number shrunk in 2022 for a variety of reasons (injuries, more edge usage, etc.), but overall, those projections weren’t too far off.
To recap, I projected DJ Dale and Byron Young in Tier 1 (over 40% snap share), Justin Eboigbe and Tim Smith in Tier 2 (30-40%) and Jamil Burroughs and Jaheim Oatis in Tier 3. Here’s how those snap share projections turned out once the 2022 season came to a close:
Byron Young – 58.2%DJ Dale – 39.3%Tim Smith – 38.2%Jaheim Oatis – 31.3%Jamil Burroughs – 17.1%Justin Eboigbe – 50.4% (in the four games played)
Young and Dale are now in the NFL, and Burroughs left via the transfer portal. That means there are multiple spots available in Alabama’s defensive line rotation. Let’s give these projections another shot for the 2023 season, shall we?
Tier 1 – Over 40% snap share
Who: Justin Eboigbe, Jaheim Oatis
Why: Going into the season, I expect Eboigbe and Oatis to be the two most heavily utilized defensive linemen in Alabama’s rotation. Last year, I had Eboigbe in Tier 2 (30-40% of the snaps), but prior to his season-ending neck injury in Week 4, the 6-foot-5, 292-pound defender was on the field for 50.4% of the snaps. I do worry if there will be any lingering limitations due to the neck injury, but assuming he doesn’t have any, he’s a safe bet to lead his position in snaps.
Will it reach the 58.2% that Young saw in 2022? Maybe, maybe not. I think a lot of Young’s high usage was the result of Eboigbe’s injury forcing Alabama to rely more on Young as it’s main, trusted inside-out option. With Jah-Marien Latham now being older and more experienced, an uptick in his usage could prevent Eboigbe from reaching that high 50% range, but even if he doesn’t quite get there, he’ll be close. I can easily see him topping 60% though.
As for Oatis, I’ll be curious to see what his workload looks like.
As a first-year player, he saw 31.3% of the snaps, but there are a couple of reasons to expect a much larger workload in 2023. First of all, he’s going into this season knowing what to expect. He’s a year older with a lot more experience (297 snaps, 10 starts) under his belt. He’s capable of handling more responsibility and can be trusted as such. Plus, he’s lost an additional 24 pounds (at least the last time we checked) since last year. That should also help.
Between his weight loss and the emergence of Tim Keenan III as a candidate for increased playing time at nose guard, Alabama should also be able to move Oatis around a little bit more in Year 2. As a freshman, you mostly saw him playing anywhere from a 0-technique or shaded 1-tech to a 3-technique on the outside shoulder of the guard. Now, you might see that role expanding out even further this year. I’d love to see Oatis playing some 4i on the inside shoulder of the tackle in certain run situations. His presence out there alone could completely eliminate one of the B-gaps on inside zone runs.
I can easily see Oatis at or near a 50% snap share this season.
Tier 2 – Between 30-40% snap share
Who: Tim Smith, Tim Keenan
Why: Smith has seen his snap share increase in each of his three seasons in Tuscaloosa. As a freshman, he played 23.2% of the snaps. That increased to 28.2% as a sophomore and then jumped all the way up to 38.2% this past season. Based on that trajectory, shouldn’t he be making a leap into the Tier 1 category? No, I don’t think so. We heard during Saturday’s scrimmage that he started off working with the second team. Granted, that didn’t last long, but there are questions as to whether or not his role will change much this year.
Right now, Eboigbe and Oatis feel like the two guys who will fall heavily in that Tier 1 range.
Landing in Tier 2 isn’t a bad thing though. Well, it isn’t really bad. It’s certainly a respectable, healthy amount of snaps, but a lot of fans were hoping for more from him in his fourth — and likely final — season in Tuscaloosa. You can still get that leap as far as production, but it might have to come on a similar snap share (38.2%) as 2022. Nick Saban mentioned earlier in fall camp that Smith “needs to be more consistent.” Hopefully, he’s finally able to take that next step in his development. If not, Alabama will still have a quality run defender who’s a borderline every-week starter.
Keenan is really intriguing though.
This guy played at 335 pounds as a freshman in 2021, 343 pounds last year and is now listed at 315. No, that isn’t the 100-pound weight loss journey we’ve seen from Oatis, but 28 pounds is still a significant amount to lose. Keenan is a stocky, powerful interior defensive lineman who can possibly team up with Oatis and Eboigbe to give Alabama a formidable front against run-heavy formations. If Keenan was pushing for time at his previous weight, I’d probably list him in Tier 3, but I think he can handle in the low 30 percentile at 315.
This projection is clear speculation on my part though, as it’s strictly based off recent camp buzz. Former Alabama defensive lineman Jamil Burroughs was generating similar buzz last offseason, but he only ended up seeing 17.1% of the snaps. Why? Because he was too situation specific (passing situations). Keenan is a much different player (early-down guy) though, and stopping the run seems to be a major emphasis for defensive coordinator Kevin Steele. I do worry that Keenan’s limitations as a three-down option could keep in his workload out of this range, but whatever, I’m going for it.
Tier 3 – Between 20-30% snap share
Who: Jah-Marien Latham, Damon Payne Jr., James Smith
Why: I’ve typically split up this tier system with two players in each group. I’m now going with three in this final tier, mostly because of the five-star freshman James Smith. As of right now, it doesn’t look like he’s in a position for significant snaps early in the season. Saban recently said that there are onlt 5-6 defensive linemen that can be relied on right now, and I think those are the other six names included in these three tiers.
Smith is an ultra-talented defensive lineman though, and I’m expecting him to come on as the season progresses. Granted, that might not come until later in the year, but I can see the coaching staff getting him as many reps as possible (when the situation allows for it) during the early portions of the year. That might just come by way of mop-up duty, but I expect a high enough share in those situations where he can at least climb into that 20% range for the entire season if he earns a contributing role later on. There’s strong three-down potential with this guy.
I’m also confident in Latham and Payne at least falling somewhere in this range.
Surprisingly, Latham lost weight this offseason. He went from 6-3, 278 down to 275. That’s not a significant amount, but a lot of people — myself included — thought he needed to be heading in the opposite direction and tip the scales at somewhere over 280. But based on a potential role as a situational interior pass rusher who’s used sparingly on a drive-to-drive basis, maybe being lighter will help. Or maybe he’ll be used more as a heavy-end in Steele’s defense (only 51.7% of his snaps came outside last season). I mean, Marlon Davidson did play at 6-3, 278 while he was starring under Steele at Auburn in 2019.
Either way, you can expect Latham to be an important piece of this rotation. I fully expect him to flirt with that 30% range after playing just 12.3% of the snaps last season. In fact, I won’t be shocked at all if he leads the defensive linemen in quarterback pressures, even if it comes on a lower percentage of snaps compared to others. His five-pressure performance against Kansas State in the Sugar Bowl (which came on just 28% of the snaps) was more than impressive.
Payne is another intriguing option for Alabama. Outside of the Mississippi State and Austin Peay games, the third-year defensive lineman seldomly played last season. In fact, 61 of his 86 snaps came in just those two contests. And yet, I still came away impressed with both of those performances.
So far, he’s been similar to Tim Smith in that he hasn’t developed much as a pass rusher despite his pedigree as a former top-50 recruit, but he can help some on early downs. I’m just worried that Keenan may have taken his role as a run-stopper working behind Oatis. If any player on this seven-man list drops below a 20% share (barring injury), I’m guessing it’ll be Payne. That doesn’t mean that I don’t like his talent though. In a lot of other programs, he’d be a borderline starter and maybe even a headliner.
Next guys up: Anquin Barnes, Monkell Goodwine, Jordan Renaud
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