Program Temperature Check: Concrete Cougars

The Longhorns now have more cougars on their 2023 slate than an Atascocita Chili’s Happy Hour, but this Gulf Coast variety prowls concrete marshes rather than Utah’s Wasatch. With their elevation to big boy P5 football, these cats will find themselves battling more dawgs than mice every Saturday and the adjustment period could prove painful.

Given that the Horns haven’t played Houston since the infamous 2002 Bleachergate where 4,000 Texas fans didn’t have their tickets honored when Houston tried to build temporary bleachers out of Lincoln Logs, Texas fans who attend this road game in Houston should expect a welcoming, warm reception and outstanding sportsmanship from a confident and deeply secure Cougar fanbase.

Houston Cougar head coach Dana Holgorsen may find exurban happy hour hunting grounds more generous than his inaugural season in the Big 12 as the 2023 Cougars will have to level up considerably without a handful of players who were the heart of the program over the last 2-3 years; specifically an offensive nucleus that made them a Top 25 national offense, the necessary component to overcome a defense that checked in around 90th.

Last year, the Cougars were supposed to win the AAC handily and were firmly listed in every preseason Top 25 poll (some national writers opining that they were the best team in Texas) but it never came to fruition. Some blame Cougar defensive coordinator Doug Belk, who had been a rising star, others blame key injuries and the fact that Dana Holgorsen’s team was a coin flip every Saturday to look mentally engaged – the Cougars finished 124th in the country in penalty yards – but whatever the explanation, Houston was a schizophrenic, unreliable football team. Even Vegas struggled to understand the underachieving Cougs, who were 4-8 ATS in the regular season.

Holgorsen is 27-20 after four years in Houston, including an outstanding 12-2 2021 campaign. If one believes that season was an outlier, the Cougars have been a sub .500 football team overall against a generous slate. A more charitable interpretation is that Holgo had a rough start and that Houston has won 20 games in the last two seasons and is clearly on the upswing.

The 2022 Cougars went 8-5 (5-3 in the AAC) against a strength of schedule firmly in the 60s. By contrast, no 2022 Big 12 team had an adjusted schedule strength outside of the Top 25. The Cougars were consistently inconsistent, beating Texas Tech in overtime (the Red Raiders led by now UH transfer QB Donovan Smith) while getting smashed by Kansas (48-30) and SMU (77-63) by basketball scores. They beat Rice by a touchdown after trailing for a good portion of the game, lost to a Tulane team starting their 3rd string QB (he ended up with three passing touchdowns against the Cougs) and their bowl victory was a thoroughly unimpressive come-from-behind win over Louisiana-Lafayette.

The Cougars lost four players to the NFL draft, including three year starting QB Clayton Tune (who tossed 40 touchdowns in his last season and amassed over 11,000 career passing yards) and their greatest offensive weapon: super-sliver wideout Tank Dell (1398 yards receiving, 17 touchdowns in ’22) who was drafted in the 3rd round. A quality experienced secondary was devastated by the Twin Horsemen of the Cougpocalypse – The Draft and The Portal – and once standout edge rusher Derek Parrish went down early in the season, the Cougar pass rush became non-existent.

In 2023, the offense is likely to take a step back against better competition while the defense doesn’t have many clear indicators of improvement.

The offseason wasn’t particularly generous either…

Cougars lost 1st team AAC guard Cam’Ron Johnson to Missouri, starting right tackle Lance Robinson to Louisville, starting safety Mannie “Get Thee To A” Nunnery to Florida and star running back Alton McKaskill to Primetime’s Colorado siren song. Houston did legitimate work in the portal to patch their holes, nabbing West Virginia starting running back Tony Mathis, securing Sooner starting linebacker David Ugwoegbu, and filling out their secondary with a number of high level performers from minor conferences – a total crapshoot there – but they lost on the running back exchange and Ugwoegbu was a casualty of Brent Venables wanting faster starting linebackers. The proof is that the former Sooner will play defensive end at his new destination.

More worryingly, since 2022, the Cougars have lost ten offensive linemen and fired their OL coach (who was immediately hired by Missouri). Whether each individual player will be missed isn’t really the point. Houston hasn’t been hitting on their big man development and they are taking warm bodies to fill out their depth chart. Star left tackle Patrick Paul, center Jack Freeman and former Longhorn guard Tyler Johnson return with fellow ex-Longhorn Jaylen Garth expected to take over right tackle, but depth is currently so poor that the Cougar staff couldn’t field ten linemen for a scrimmage in spring practice.

It’s not all bleak though. This is Houston and talent will always find its way on the roster by simple osmosis. Holgo also has a creative offensive mind and is capable of putting together outstanding individual game plans for a circled opponent. Despite the massive loss of the diminutive Dell at wide receiver, the Cougars will still feature Matthew Golden, Joseph Manjack and Samuel Brown while adding two four star freshman receiver recruits in Jonah Wilson and Mikal Harrison-Pilot.

Quarterback will be a battle between Tech transfer Donovan Smith and Arkansas transfer Lucas Coley. To put that in perspective, Smith would have been Tech’s #3 QB this year and while he is not without physical traits, he hasn’t evidenced consistent feel for the game and can be a turnover factory. Holgo is a fine a maximizer of quarterbacks and will do his best to feature either player, but it’s a fair bet that the passing game orchestra will be out of Tune.

Like a Memphis or Louisville, Houston will always find talent that hid in plain sight, but a moderate rebuild while stepping up the competition level isn’t advisable. The general inconsistency of the program last year also gives one considerable pause. The absolute upside for this team looks like 6-6 or 7-5 while the floor looks something like 4-8, even with a non-conference schedule that includes Sam Houston State, UTSA and SMU while hosting TCU, West Virginia and Oklahoma State.

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