Predicting the SEC standings in 2024
The 2024 SEC season is going to feature more blue blood programs than ever with the inclusion of Texas and Oklahoma to an already potent mix of powerhouse programs. This conference has produced 15 National Champions since an official postseason championship game was established in 1998 and have won six of the 10 titles awarded since college football established a playoff system in 2014.
With the expansion of the playoff to 12 teams in 2024, the SEC will likely have as many as four or even five teams participating in the postseason, making the league standings and title process a little less important than they’ve been in previous years. Today I’m going to try and pick an order of finish for the 16 teams competing in the SEC in 2024. Remember to bear in mind that while finishing no. 1 or no. 2 will create the chance to play for the SEC Championship and a no. 1 or no. 2 overall seed in the playoffs, multiple teams will have a shot at a national title.
Also keep in mind that the SEC tie-breaker rules for choosing title game contestants hasn’t been made public but will center around “eight rules” and will probably be aimed at producing as many playoff teams as possible.
No. 16: The South Carolina Gamecocks (1-7)
The Gamecocks are starting over at quarterback after losing Spencer Rattler and have a loaded schedule which will grind this roster down.
No. 15: The Vanderbilt Commodores (1-7)
Vanderbilt will be similarly overmatched like South Carolina but draw the Gamecocks at home and could secure their sole SEC win which would grant them the tiebreaker.
No. 14: The Mississippi State Bulldogs (1-7)
I like the Bulldogs best of our bottom dwellers on this list but their schedule’s easiest conference game is Florida at home.
No. 13: The Arkansas Razorbacks (2-6)
Everyone is counting Arkansas as one of the wins on their schedule but they’ll surprise a team or two with a victory. Texas and Texas A&M alike will need to watch out for getting a “Super Bowl” level of preparation and effort from the Pigs.
No. 12: The Oklahoma Sooners (2-6)
Oklahoma is taking a completely overhauled and unusually NFL tackle-less offensive line and young quarterback on the road to Auburn, Ole Miss, Missouri, and LSU while also facing Texas in the always raucous Red River Shootout. Home game respites will feature visits from Tennessee, Alabama, and South Carolina. The coordinators on both offense and defense are new.
The homecoming for Shane Beamer and his Gamecocks is the only game you can pencil in as a win and it’ll be a struggle for the Sooners to add more than 1-2 other victories. This is a talented roster but their draw is prohibitive, much like the next team on our list…
No. 11: The Florida Gators (3-5)
Florida has a pretty solid team with the chance to fully rebuild and re-establish their defense after an offseason and a much improved offensive line room. Unfortunately they also have the toughest schedule I’ve ever seen with a SEC schedule bookended by a home game with Miami and road trip against Florida State. Assuming the team doesn’t give up on Billy Napier or any interim promoted to replace him if he can’t survive the season, they should be able to grit out a few wins, but their record won’t reflect the quality of the roster.
No. 10: The Auburn Tigers (3-5)
My suspicion is Hugh Freeze will have the Tiger offense in better shape in year two after taking more direct control of the offense and upgrading the talent at receiver. On the other hand, the offense looked awfully messy in the spring game and Freeze appears to have the approval of the Auburn donors to focus on recruiting and rebuilding this roster for the future rather than chasing short-term results against difficult schedules.
I expect they’ll shock a team or two and generate some wins but the slate is as unforgiving as one of the SEC West draws they would get in the past.
No. 9: The Kentucky Wildcats (4-4)
This may be too low. The Wildcats have experienced, legitimate talent at the two most important positions of defensive tackle and wide receiver. A lot hinges on transfer quarterback Brock Vandagriff demonstrating a mastery of how to operate the Kentucky offense.
Reasons for doubting Kentucky include their nature under Mark Stoops of struggling to break through the top echelon and a schedule which includes Georgia, at Ole Miss, at Tennessee, and at Texas. This will be a much tougher road to hoe than SEC East fare they’ve become accustomed to in previous seasons.
No. 8: The LSU Tigers (5-3)
This is less an endorsement of Brian Kelly’s 2024 Tigers and more a reflection of their schedule. The Tigers have a number of highly winnable games on their slate and still have quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, wide receiver Kyren Lacy, and a pair of NFL offensive tackles to build their offense around. Obviously there are big questions about their defense, questions Brian Kelly tried to get ahead of in his press conference, but there is young talent there approaching their upperclassmen years which should be able to form better resistance than a year ago when they finished 102nd in the country in defensive FEI.
No. 7. The Texas A&M Aggies (5-3)
The Aggies got a great schedule draw, in the sense that anyone in this league can get a favorable draw with as many great teams as there are, and their record and season will probably hinge on that final matchup at home against the Longhorns.
Mike Elko is inheriting a lot of weapons on defense and used the transfer portal to ensure he can field a much better and more veteran secondary than the unit which struggled for Jimbo Fisher last season. To build a 5-win (in league play) offense Collin Klein needs to find a worthy go-to wideout on the roster and piece together a physical offensive line which can impose its will. The pieces are there on the offensive line. Wide receiver is iffier but the prospects are brighter than what Klein worked magic with up in Manhattan, KS.
No. 6. The Alabama Crimson Tide (5-3)
I was surprised in the Alabama spring game by how quickly Jalen Milroe is taking to new head coach Kalen DeBoer’s instruction and how easily he’s been able to find Washington transfer receiver Germie Bernard in the passing game. The Alabama offensive line brings back a number of big talents and DeBoer’s background includes a fair bit more quarterback run game than his recent seasons would lead you to believe. Expect a very potent Crimson Tide offense this season.
However, the defensive secondary was completely gutted by the draft and transfer portal and the stacked Edge room they’ve enjoyed in recent seasons is starting over. The schedule will pit DeBoer’s Tide against Georgia, at Tennessee, Missouri, at LSU, at OU, and home for Auburn. They’re likely to catch a few losses as they remake the defense after years of Sabanization, but this will remain a strong team.
No. 5: The Missouri Tigers (6-2)
Missouri is fresh off a breakout season featuring quarterback Brady Cook throwing to receivers Luther Burden, Theo Wease, and Mookie Cooper and all three of them return for 2024. This is going to be a very potent offense and the schedule dodges most of the league’s heavyweights.
Defensively they lost their coordinator Blake Baker to the cause at LSU along with a 1st round defensive end, both cornerbacks, a safety, and a linebacker. New coordinator Corey Batoon specializes in developing secondaries and has some talent to work with but that’ll be the major obstacle for the Tigers in maintaining their momentum from a year ago.
No. 4: The Texas Longhorns (6-2)
The Texas Longhorns are in great shape to enter the SEC for 2024 and are about as likely as any other team to appear in the top two and play for the league title. I have them pegged just below the next three for the simple reason that Texas hasn’t had to do this before. Even with the favorable schedule, Texas is going to play multiple games in 2024 that are about as tough as any game (aside from at Alabama) they played in 2023.
The extent to which Texas adjusts to the new grind and physicality will determine whether or not they can avoid taking a loss or two in league play.
No. 3: The Ole Miss Rebels (7-1)
Ole Miss is loaded for the 2024 season and picked a good year to go all-in on the transfer portal, jumping in before any adjustments occur to college football’s rules and in a year in which they avoid Alabama, Texas, and Tennessee on the schedule. Lane Kiffin transformed his defense by nabbing Florida Edge Princely Umanmielen from the portal along with Texas A&M defensive tackle Walter Nolen.
Offensively the Rebels already had quarterback Jaxson Dart back along with tight end Caden Prieskorn and receivers Tre Harris and Jordan Watkins but Kiffin also added Antwane “Juice” Wells from South Carolina and pair of big Washington linemen from one of last year’s best offensive lines in college football. Lane Kiffin gets the nod here over pal Steve Sarkisian owing to a few years of experience in building notes on how to compete in this league.
No. 2: The Tennessee Volunteers (7-1)
I ended up higher on the Vols here than I expected after studying their schedule. Tennessee drew a road slate of Oklahoma, Arkansas, Georgia, and Vanderbilt, which is as manageable as it gets outside of the trip to Athens. They’ll face Alabama at home but I think this team is ready for the challenge.
Josh Heupel promotes Nico Iamaleava to starting quarterback after a year as understudy to Joe Milton and he’ll have Squirrel White, Bru McCoy, and Tulane transfer Chris Brazzell II to throw to behind the protection of LSU transfer and former 5-star left tackle Zalance Heard.
Tennessee’s defense took a big step forward last year thanks to a veteran secondary and the development of a very strong front. The front returns James Pearce at Edge along with a deep group of D-tackles. The secondary added a some transfers to maintain veteran depth, they’ll need Oregon State transfer Jermod McCoy to translate at cornerback to make this prognostication look good in December.
No. 1: The Georgia Bulldogs (7-1)
The Georgia Bulldogs will be on a knife’s edge all season with a schedule including Kentucky, at Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State, at Texas, Florida, at Ole Miss, and Tennessee.
Count on the Dawgs to drop at least one of those games…the question is whether they drop a second. Much of that will hinge on how things develop at wide receiver. Kirby Smart returns Rara Thomas and Dominic Lovett from a year ago while adding Colbie Young from Miami and tight end Ben Yurosek from Stanford. If the Dawgs can find some explosive firepower from that list of names, the defense and line play on this roster will put them in position to control every game.
It’s another loaded Georgia defense which is likely to produce some new superstars in Edge Mykel Williams and linebacker CJ Allen, the latter of whom is expected to be the next Roquan Smith or Nakobe Dean. Again, Georgia will need a few superstars to emerge in order to avoid taking more than a single loss in SEC play.
There are about seven or eight teams that are going to be playing much of this season with the belief they could make the playoffs. Half of them will be disappointed. Unbalanced schedules will likely be one of the biggest factors and the Longhorns are advantaged there, but they’ll still have to prove they can handle the bright lights of the big stage.
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