Point / Counterpoint: CaneSport staff weighs in on whether Texas A&M is a must-win game for Mario Cristobal

A year ago the Miami Hurricanes’ season unraveled with a 5-7 record. The first warning shot across the bow of what was in store? Now, in retrospect, you can sure as heck point to the third game of the season at Texas A&M. Miami’s offense struggled, a recurring theme, in a 17-9 loss.

The team never recovered, falling in a shocker to Middle Tennessee, 45-31, and then vs. North Carolina, 27-24.

The wins were few and far between from that point.

So now let’s look at this coming season. Texas A&M could again be a defining game. As the second game of the year, it will be the first real challenge for Miami off an opener against Miami (Ohio). The offense and defense under new coordinators will be laid bare. The personnel stars and deficiencies as well. At Hard Rock Stadium, fans will be able to see first-hand if this is a much different team than the one we saw a year ago.

The Aggies, by the way, are already a way-too-early 6.5-point favorite at Miami. Also of note: Texas A&M is an 8.5-point home underdog against Alabama and a 10.5-point underdog at LSU.

So it’s expected to be a very good team, a top 25 team, but maybe not a great team.

Miami?

We’re not necessarily expecting the Canes to be great. But Texas A&M will certainly be viewed as an early measuring-stick game for Mario Cristobal in Year 2. And it could help reveal, as last year’s game did, the direction this season goes. The Canes don’t want to suffer another down year – that can affect recruiting, program morale, the fan base, etc.

Which brings us to today’s question that each member of the CaneSport staff will address: Is Texas A&M a must-win game for Cristobal?

GARY FERMAN

Back in 2018, Manny Diaz took a Miami team that was expecting to be considerably better into Dallas to play LSU. The Canes Nation turned out in force, about 25,000 fans making the trip. The Canes were competitive, but outclassed in the game. They lost 33-17 and never really recovered psychologically from that day. Diaz had rallied them all summer with the mantra that they would be better. And they were not good enough. They finished 7-6. The next year, Miami went to Orlando to play the Florida Gators in the season opener. They performed better in that game. There were five lead changes and Miami had a chance to win late. But Florida prevailed and Miami went on to a 6-7 season. In 2021, Miami went to Atlanta to start the season against Alabama. The Hurricanes were totally outclassed and blown out, 44-13. They finished 7-5 and Diaz was fired. Last season, Miami had an early out of conference game at Texas A&M, the first test under new head coach Mario Cristobal. It was a hard-fought game the entire way, but Miami could not score. The Canes lost 17-9 in a game that was brutal for them from a physical standpoint. There was a hangover as Miami was stunned the next week by Middle Tennessee State and lost the week after that to North Carolina. The Hurricanes were beset by adversity, including an injury to Tyler Van Dyke, and finished 5-7.

So is this home game in week 2 against Texas A&M a “must-win” for Miami and Cristobal. I would say, “Yes”, it’s everything because there will be a lot of eyes on it (the game is on national TV) and it will set the tone for the season as well as recruiting. A victory would propel Miami to a likely 5-0 start to the season. A loss would leave the Hurricanes questioning how good they really are. On face value, an out of conference game early in the season can only be called a “must win” if the team has national championship aspirations. That is certainly not the case here. Reality would collide with any crazy dreams. But these are not normal times at Miami. The Hurricanes are on a desperate race against time to regain relevance. Cristobal didn’t come here for a typical five-year rebuild. So this is an opportunity for an early-season launching pad. Going all-in on a game like this comes with psychological risks. But I feel pretty confident that the Miami staff won’t be real concerned about that. The Canes will lay it all out on the line against an SEC opponent that also was 5-7 last year and is going through its own soul-searching moment. It should be a fun Saturday afternoon at Hard Rock Stadium.

MATT SHODELL

For me, a “must-win” game doesn’t really exist in the state in which the Miami Hurricanes live right now. This is a team that, if viewed honestly, has a lot more to prove than winning just one game against a Texas A&M team that may or may not be real good – remember, the Aggies (like Miami) were 5-7 a year ago and that program has just one 10-win season since 1999. If Miami was at the Alabama level right now then sure you can say this is a must-win game since a loss like this means there’s really no more room for error to be a national title team … and might be an indication of roster deficiencies. For Miami the goal this year is a little different. And Hurricanes fans should not ride or die on this one early-season matchup. What I want to see this year is progress. Progress overall as a program. Progress as the season moves forward. If Miami lost to the Aggies with a new offense and defense but then starts playing better and better and upsets a Florida State, let’s say, late in the season? I don’t think many people would be looking back and saying, “Oh, but Miami lost to Texas A&M and that killed the season.” To me that’s what a must-win game is. One that you lose and it kills your season. That isn’t the case for where Miami is in the college football landscape right now. If the Canes can win 8 or 9 games, play it close with Clemson and/or Florida State, that’s upward mobility. That’s a trajectory I can buy into. It’s what Miami fans should want to see. You can dream of 10, 11 or 12 wins, but this probably isn’t the year that happens. The roster just isn’t quite there yet and tons of things would have to go right for Miami including transfers playing above what they’ve shown in the past and true freshmen busting out in unicorn fashion. This is Year 2 of the Mario Cristobal era. I still think with recruiting classes getting stacked that a couple of years from now we will be writing items like this one calling an early-season big matchup like Texas A&M “must-win.” Let’s also keep in mind, by the way, that there’s also the side note of this being an out-of-conference game. Not that the Canes can compete for an ACC title this year without a ton of things really falling into place and surprising everyone, but the games that count most at this stage of UM’s existence really are in-conference. The next step for Miami isn’t beating a decent SEC team but reaching the ACC title game or at least being in the conversation for it late in the year. So I’d still rather beat a North Carolina in game 6 and sit at 5-1 (2-0 in ACC) than beat Texas A&M and lose to UNC and sit at that same 5-1 but be 1-1 in ACC play (Game 1 in conference play is against a struggling Georgia Tech program). So yeah, it’d be a great sign for the program to beat Texas A&M. But a must-win game for Mario Cristobal and Miami? Not so much.

IZUBEE CHARLES

Early this year when Miami’s schedule was released and the CaneSport staff gave its win/loss predictions, the matchup against Texas A&M was, to me, the most crucial for their success this upcoming season for two main reasons. I truly do believe this contest against the Aggies is a must-win game for the Hurricanes and Mario Cristobal in year two because the result of the contest could either benefit or harm the Hurricanes in many ways. How I’m looking at this game is not only the impact it will have on the field but off of it as well. The first reason I consider this a must-win game is what happened to the Hurricanes following a bad performance on the road at Kyle Field versus the Aggies last season. After losing 17-9 in a lackluster performance, Miami never seemed to recover from their mistakes in the game, and things went bad from there. If things don’t go their way this time, I can see something similar occurring. I believe that if Miami can defeat the Aggies at home in front of what should be a near-sellout crowd at Hard Rock Stadium, they will be able to capitalize on the momentum gained from beating a tough out-of-conference opponent. Lastly, I consider this game a must-win because of the impact that I believe it will have on recruitment. I have no doubt that Miami’s recruiting section will be stacked with some of their top targets in the 2024 class and beyond, and a strong showing on the field may go a long way toward swaying some of these players. Over the last few months, a ton of prospects have said how they want to see improvement on the field from the Hurricanes, and what better way to show that than by beating a team you fell to last season?

STEPHEN WAGNER

I’m not sure if there’s a true, traditional must-win game for the Hurricanes in a rebuilding year, even if this is a season where we expect Miami to be greatly improved. With that being said, I’ll definitely say the Texas A&M game is a matchup the Hurricanes don’t have an excuse to lose. Miami didn’t really beat a team last season it matched up well with from a talent standpoint. All five of the Hurricanes’ wins came over opponents Miami was substantially more talented than, although the Canes didn’t always play that way and ended up winning one-score games against bad Virginia and Virginia Tech teams. So to prove Miami’s taking a step in the right direction, the Hurricanes need to prove they can beat a team of equal or slightly-greater talent. And that means beating a Texas A&M team that was not real good last season, will probably be in the seven-to-eight win range in 2023 and also overhauled their coaching staff in the offseason. Beating the Aggies would certainly go a long way to positioning the Hurricanes for success, but this game should be viewed more as a benchmark than a must-win game. Winning gives Miami a path to a potential 5-0 start against a very favorable schedule, which would put the Hurricanes on track in the top 25 heading into October. But the odds are strong this game won’t define Miami’s season — rather, it will be a reflection of it, which is similar to what happened in last season’s game in College Station.

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