Point / Counterpoint: CaneSport staff weighs in on what has to happen for Miami Hurricanes to win 10 games
Miami has won 10 games just once in the last 19 seasons, a once unfathomable statistic for a program that had won 10 or more games in nine of 10 seasons from 1985-94. But reality is reality, and coach Mario Cristobal is looking to rebuild UM from the ground up.
The question is what floor is the ground. Was last season the bottom and it’s an express elevator to the top? How long will the ride take? One year? Two? Five?
Off a 5-7 season, the immediate goal is obviously improvement. A benchmark can be set at winning 10 games, reaching the ACC title game, etc. Those are steps you probably need to take before you are going to be a playoff-caliber team. In order to win right now, Cristobal brought in 14 transfers and two JUCO prospects with immediate eligibility. The idea is for them to help fill gaps in the roster while Miami coaches develop top talent coming in recruiting classes.
With all that as background, the question the CaneSport staff is answering today is if all these moves can pay off with a 10-win season right now. The over-under for wins for this team was set at 7.5, which probably seems fair given the schedule and last year’s results.
But 10 wins certainly isn’t out of the question, and today CaneSport shares its take on what would have to fall into place for that to occur:
GARY FERMAN
Think about that stat at the beginning of this article. The Miami Hurricanes have won 10 games just once in the past 19 seasons. And now we are debating what has to happen for Miami to win 10 games this year. I’ll tell you what. A darn miracle. Think I’m crazy? Think back to that 2017 season in which Miami went 10-0 before all of the good fortune caught up and the Hurricanes blew the season finale at Pittsburgh, lost the AC title game to Clemson and then lost their bowl game to Wisconsin in their home stadium on top of that. Think about the last-play crazy victories at FSU and at home against Georgia Tech in back-to-back weeks and the close call at North Carolina. Think about how Miami was just as close to losing five or six games as it was three. So the bottom line is that if you are going to get to double-digit victories in college football and you aren’t an absolutely great team that you have to have some good fortune. A miracle? Just maybe. How does that pertain to this season and where is the path to 10 wins? Well you better not look past Miami-Ohio, one of those better-than-you-think teams. And you absolutely must find a way to beat Texas A&M at home. That leads you to Bethune-Cookman, Temple on the road and Georgia Tech. Take care of business and you are sitting at 5-0 and the nation is starting to wonder if The Canes are Back. The answer is they are not back. They are not back until they beat somebody good and win championships. But 5-0 is 5-0. The North Carolina game that is next on the schedule is one of the swing games of the season. It is on the road and the Heels have a franchise quarterback in Drake Maye. That is going to be very difficult to win, but if you are talking about a path to 10 wins, a victory there most likely will need to be on it. Clemson at home is next and it is probably wise to assume that game will be one of the losses because Miami has not been close to Clemson personnel-wise the past three times the teams have recently played. Then the Hurricanes have NC State, FSU and Louisville in succession. To win 10 games, you must win two of the three. The season concludes with a must-win game at Boston College. So that’s the path if you aren’t using the post-season to get to 10. Can Miami do it? Yes. It is not the impossible dream. But a lot will have to happen along the way.
MATT SHODELL
I predicted this would be a 7-5 team in early June when we all went through an exercise trying to figure out where Miami likely winds up in 2023. The thinking on my end was that there are at least four games in which Miami clearly will be the underdog (the team’s already been listed by DraftKings as a 6-5-point underdog at home vs. Texas A&M, gives up 10 points at Clemson and is a double-digit underdog at FSU as well, plus the Canes are likely going to be underdogs at North Carolina). With those considered probable losses, the likelihood that Miami only loses one other game on a schedule that also includes pretty good NC State and Louisville teams seems about right. So what would get Miami to a 10-2 record? Well, big picture that would mean that you are probably looking at the two losses to Clemson and FSU and running the rest of the table (the ‘Noles and Tigers are generally considered top 10 teams). Can Miami be better than the rest? It’s certainly possible. Of the other tough games I mentioned above Texas A&M is coming off a 5-7 season and has offensive question marks. There is no assurance that UNC’s defense will be stout, and Miami can win a slugfest there. NC State has question marks on offense. Louisville is sort of like Miami with some roster holes that mean the team could have an up or down season. The Canes’ side, meanwhile, could be much improved on offense behind a healthy Tyler Van Dyke playing in a new QB-friendly system behind a revamped offensive line that includes two high level transfers and a pair of 5-star signees. Miami also added a couple of portal WRs including 4.24-second 40 guy Tyler Harrell plus a slot receiver that looks like a true freshman phenom in Ray Ray Joseph. Tight end? Elijah Arroyo will be an asset and transfer Cam McCormick adds physicality to the position. On defense there are two studs up front in Akheem Mesidor and Leonard Taylor, and Miami has one of the best safety duos in America with All-American Kam Kinchens and James Williams. Find some answers among the handful of cornerback transfers, see LB transfer Francisco Mauigoa shine, and you’ve got a pretty good start to the D in an aggressive new system. So if things fall the right way, kind of like the team’s last 10-win season in 2017 when there were three victories of five or fewer points, the Canes can perhaps hit that double-digit mark. And boy wouldn’t that be fun to see?
IZUBEE CHARLES
When we first predicted how many games Miami was going to win this season, my guess was just under 10 with a 9-3 prediction, so I’m not as far off as others and have a bit more confidence in this squad this upcoming year. A big piece of my reasoning behind my 9-win prediction was my confidence in Tyler Van Dyke, and if Miami were to win 10 games, I believe he’ll have to be the reason why they do so. Last year, if you look at all 24 of the FBS programs with 10 or more wins, each of those programs was led by a pretty darn good quarterback who was productive and efficient. In rare circumstances do you see a 10-win team being completely carried by the defense or another skill position player beside the quarterback. I feel like coming into this season with much lower expectations than last year, a retooled offense under Shannon Dawson, and significant additions to the offensive line and wide receiver room, this is the perfect recipe for Van Dyke to return to the form that we all know he can play at and shock some people around the country.
STEPHEN WAGNER
It’s obvious Miami won’t win 10 games without a little bit of luck. I’m a huge proponent of not counting wins or losses strictly based on which teams a school is more talented than, but Miami simply doesn’t have the roster to beat a Clemson and will face an uphill battle to win at North Carolina, especially when the Tar Heels have a quarterback expected to compete for the Heisman. I’m counting that as two losses already, and we haven’t touched games Miami has at Florida State and North Carolina State, both of which I think are winnable but the Canes will have little room for error. Speaking realistically, Miami probably won’t win 10 games unless they catch breaks against teams like NC State, Florida State and Louisville, and Miami will need to play an almost perfect season outside of the three Group of Five games. That means avoiding upsets or slip-ups against teams Georgia Tech, Virginia and Boston College in addition to beating every team outside of Clemson and North Carolina, which is easier said than done. Miami will face an uphill battle to win 10 games.
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