Pick and preview: Kansas State at Missouri
KSO will look at a handful of categories each week when previewing the Kansas State game on Saturday. We discuss factors to keep in mind for the Wildcats, what K-State needs to learn, the players to watch and a final prediction.
FOUR FACTORS FOR KANSAS STATE
1. Line of scrimmage: On paper, the defensive lines for both teams should win the line of scrimmage. The Kansas State defensive line has been cooking and the Missouri offensive line has been sputtering. The same is true for the K-State offensive line and Tiger defensive line. However, though we don’t expect Christian Duffie to play, the Wildcats have the offensive line most capable of rising to the occasion because of the experience, chemistry and cohesion.
2. Fast start: A good way to make it not all that interesting is for Kansas State to jump on Missouri early and step on their throat. I haven’t called for that to happen, but if it does, many things happen. Playing behind by multiple scores makes the Tigers throw when you know they are going to throw and that is a poor recipe for them. It takes the crowd out of the game, and it gives you that ‘here we go again’ feeling in the Missouri corner after being thumped 40-12 by K-State a year ago.
3. Styles make fights: For the Wildcats, it is the opposite of what we have come to know about Kansas State over the years across the teams coached by Bill Snyder and the first few coached by Chris Klieman. They would rather the game be a track meet. An ugly low-scoring, plodding game is exactly what Missouri needs to win. If K-State can accelerate the pace and play a faster style with more points, that’s the script that allows them to win. The Tigers can’t win a shootout. They don’t have the offense to do it.
4. Limit explosives: Like I said, Missouri is a bit offensively-challenged. Some of that is because of the decision-making of head coach Eli Drinkwitz, but they’ve struggled to score more than 24 points more times than not. In fact, they have only eclipsed that number five times in the last 18 games and four of those were versus New Mexico State, Abilene Christian, Louisiana Tech and South Dakota. Another problem is that they haven’t been explosive. They still aren’t explosive. And if Kansas State can limit that as well, the Tigers aren’t good enough to string together long drives.
WHAT THE WILDCATS NEED TO LEARN
1. First road test: Does K-State possess the maturity that we assume is prevalent in the locker room? The first test of that is Saturday in Columbia.
2. Growth on offense: Although they have scored 87 points, the offense in Manhattan has been far from smooth and sharp. Will we see a mistake-free game from Will Howard and does the offensive line respond to some early season adversity and a slow start? What happens at right tackle will be interesting.
SATURDAY STARS
Will Howard: For Kansas State to find success on offense, I think it has to be a game where QB1 takes over. He hasn’t had a performance characteristic of some of the games he produced in the second half of last season. It would be huge for him to do so in Columbia. Missouri can be stout against the run. They could mimic what Troy did and eliminate Ben Sinnott from the passing game and have the cornerbacks to play man coverage against the receivers on the outside. If that’s the case, the only recourse is for Howard to be brilliant or for the offensive line to make their splash.
Uso Seumalo: It also sounds like the Tigers may try to shuffle things around on their own offensive line after some struggles through the first two weeks. Most of the issues have been in the interior and Uso Seumalo should be firing on all cylinders.
Jack Blumer: Honestly, we haven’t seen K-State punt much this year. My guess is that we see Jack Blumer a little more than the first two games. And just pinning the Tigers deep in their own territory is a win because of how difficult moving the ball can be for Drinkwitz’s club.
PREDICTION
I’m not sure that Kansas State can run it up on Missouri like they did a season ago. Not only are the Wildcats better than the version that did so in Manhattan, so are the Tigers and they are the home team with an axe to grind.
There’s a reason why they narrowly escaped Middle Tennessee.
If not for the added motivation and how much emphasis has been placed on this contest, I might pick K-State to roll 31-14. It certainly feels like that kind of game, but I am going to respect Missouri enough to tighten it up because of their focus, desire and the added environment element of Faurot Field.
K-State still scores enough to not be reached by the Tigers and pull it out 27-19 in Columbia.
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