Penn State-Northwestern Matchups: Who has the edge in Evanston?

By Greg Pickel

Penn State is back on the road to close out the September portion of its schedule. The No. 6 Nittany Lions battle Northwestern (2-2) on Saturday at Ryan Field in Evanston, Ill. Head coach James Franklin’s side is a 25.5-point favorite ahead of the Big Ten crossover matchup, which is set for noon on Big Ten Network.

Who will have the edge when the two sides meet? It’s time to break down the matchups.

When Penn State has the ball

The Northwestern defense runs through linebacker Bryce Gallagher. He is far and away their best player and is currently the team’s leading tackler by a decisive margin. It says a lot that Franklin only rattled off Gallagher, linebacker Xander Mueller, and hybrid defender Rod Heard II when mentioning players who stand out on film. He was not being rude. It’s just that the unit overseen by interim head coach David Braun is not overly flashy on paper or tape. The base 4-3 front makes teams stay honest. But, the Wildcats have the Big Ten’s worst rushing defense and is middle of the road against the pass.

This feels like a week where Penn State can really get its ground game going. Plenty of discussion has been had about the Nittany Lions not ripping off as many explosive runs this year and averaging less per carry than some expected them to. That could all quickly change against Northwestern. Expect offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich to get Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen involved early and often to eat up yards and clock while mixing in some play action passes. For the fifth week in a row, the Lions should only struggle to move the ball if they hurt themselves with penalties or poor play. The Wildcats do not have a scary pass rush. They will be disciplined. But, the Lions have massive talent advantages and should be able to name their score on offense.

EDGE: Penn State

When the Nittany Lions are on defense

Penn State has a clear point of attack on defense just as it does on offense. Northwestern has surrendered 11 sacks already this season. The Wildcats have the Big Ten’s worst rushing offense and are middle of the road in the passing game. Quarterback Ben Bryant is a solid player. But, he has already tossed three interceptions and his stats are beefed up by last week’s wild comeback win against Minnesota. He will have plenty of chances to throw. But, he’ll be going against the best pass defense, and overall unit, in the country. In other words, the chances to find receivers AJ Henning and Bryce Kirtz, who has a Big Ten best 91.3 yards per game, will not be as plentiful.

The game plan second-year coordinator Manny Diaz puts together should feature plenty of press man coverages and lots of risks with blitzes and stunts to keep Bryant off schedule. If the Wildcats have to rely on the run, they will not move the ball. The Penn State defense should feast in this matchup and further solidify itself as one of the nation’s best units.

EDGE: Penn State

Odds and ends

–One way to try and beat Penn State is to win the field position battle through the punting game. Northwestern will be unlikely to do that. Wildcats punter Hunter Renner is the worst punter statistically in the Big Ten. He’s averaging just 38 yards per punt over 22 attempts.

–Kicker Jack Olsen has just two attempts on the year. He’s made both with a long of 40 yards.

–Kick return opportunities should be there for Penn State if they want them. Northwestern has used three different kickoff specialists and have just five touchbacks on 18 attempts.

–The Wildcats have got nothing cooking in the punt or kick return games.

Penn State-Northwestern final word

This game has long had the makings of a blowout. The ingredients are certainly still there. The Wildcats do not do anything special on offense, defense, or special teams. Their strengths play right into the hands of Penn State on offense and defense. While the spread is suggesting a Nittany Lions victory by three touchdowns and change, we could easily see a 30-plus point win playing out in Evanston.

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