Penn State-Illinois Matchups: Who will have the edge in Champaign?
Penn State returns to the field on Saturday when it battles Illinois. The Nittany Lions are a 14.5-point favorite for the contest, which starts at Noon ET on FOX.
“One of the trademarks of James’ teams is they play a lot of skill [players],” Fighting Illini head coach Bret Bielema said. “They’re deep. They do a tremendous job in recruiting, and they’re allowed to do things there at Penn State that allow them to get a lot of skill players in the program. It seems like as soon as you have one leave, another one stands up right behind him. That’s the thing about Penn State. The volume of skill that can be on the field and be fresh is a challenge.”
Penn State coach James Franklin similarly praised his team’s opponent during his Tuesday news conference.
“Onto Illinois and Coach Bielema,” Franklin said. “Obviously he has a ton of history as a head coach and specifically a head coach in the Big10 conference. I’ve known Bret for a while. He goes on the Nike trip that me and my wife go on as well, him and his wife. So we’ve got to know him personally and professionally and have a ton of respect for him and what he’s been able to do.”
Who will have the advantage on either side of the ball? We take a closer look below.
When Penn State has the ball
Illinois has some talent up front. Defensive end Jer’Zhan Newton already has two sacks. Defensive tackle Keith Randolph is stout at defensive tackle and has 12 tackles, which is second on the team. By and large, though, this defense is pourous. After beating Toloedo and losing to Kansas, the Fighting Illini have the 125th ranked defense in the FBS. The defense of has allowed an average 477.5 yards per game. And, it’s giving up nearly seven yards per play. Defensive coordinator Aaron Henry’s defense is the worst in the Big Ten against the run and 12 out of 14 against the pass.
Head coach James Franklin talked after last week’s win about how defensive coordinator must choose if they want to take away Drew Allar and the passing game or Nicholas Singleton, Kaytron Allen, and the running game. We’d expect the Illini to try and force Penn State to beat them through the air and sell out in every way possible to stop the run by improving in that area defensively. It’s a tall ask.
The Jaywhawks, after all, just ran for 262 yards. The Rockets, meanwhile, ran for 186. This is not the same defense Penn State fans might remember from 2021 or 2022. It is down many key parts front to back, and is no longer overpowering in the secondary and is OK but not great along the defensive line. Penn State may not be able to name its score in this game as it did against Delaware. But, it should be able to move the ball at will.
EDGE: Penn State
When the Nittany Lions are on defense
Luke Altmyer leads the Illinois offense. The quarterback has completed 37 of 54 passes for 413 yards, three touchdowns, and three interceptions. He can run, too, having already racked up a team-high 22 carries for 139 yards and two touchdowns. Penn State must be mindful of its responsibilities and assignments in that regard, or the passer will hurt them repeatedly with his feet as West Virginia’s Garrett Greene did occasionally in Week 1.
“I think we’ll be more prepared this week based on going against West Virginia,” Franklin said. “I thought we played really well in the first two weeks. There was obviously times and moments we would want to get cleaned up on offense, defense, and special teams, but I thought we did some really good things that are building blocks moving forward.
“In practice you’re blowing the whistle. Soon as the quarterback runs and anybody comes anywhere near him, you’re blowing the whistle. Whether it’s a sack, you’re blowing the whistle. The quarterback in West Virginia gets out of a few of them. So until you really get it where it’s gamelike in find speed and live, it’s hard to get that look in practice. That’s why facing these types quarterbacks is so challenging.”
Illinois has a bit of a mess along its offensive line. Running back Reggie Love III has 20 carries for 103 yards. Receiver Isaiah Williams is the team’s top skill player. He has 11 catches for 150 yards so far. Cornerback Kalen King will be tasked with keeping him locked down.
Penn State will need to keep Altmyer contained. But, it should have a chance to feast on him too, with sacks. Expect Manny Diaz to send all sorts of pressure to keep him off balance.
EDGE: Penn State
Penn State-Illinois odds and ends
–Penn State seems to be set with Alex Felkins at kicker, Riley Thompson at punter, and Nick Singleton and Kaden Saunders at kick and punt returner, respectively.
–Illinois’ Caleb Griffin has only made one field goal this year. Only four of his 10 kickoffs have gone for touchbacks. Singleton may have a chance to pop one in the kick return game.
–The Fighting Illini, oddly enough, have not fielded a punt through two games.
Final word
Penn State is a deserving two touchdown favorite in this contest. Penn State fans have bad memories of the 2021 nine overtime loss. This Nittany Lions team is better. And, this Illinois team is worse. It should lead to a good road win for the visitors in Week 3.
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