Path to the CFP, #12: Oregon Needs Guns A-Blazin’ in Lubbock

Utah, Washington, and USC have fans’ attention as the season approaches, but an early-season trip to Texas Tech poses a more significant threat than some realize.

Josh Pate loves to say on his podcast that “You are not what your record says you are.” That’s a perfect counter to our Hot Takes society, a combination of lazy narratives and even lazier research tactics.

For Oregon, that expression comes from their 10-3 record in 2022, which was their record in 2021 as well (until that JV-squad exhibition against Oklahoma). While the 2021 squad went to Ohio State and pulled off one of the season’s biggest stunners, outside of that, Oregon was not as good as its record indicated. A wonder-bread plain offense and a mediocre defense offset a manageable schedule that should have produced at least two more wins. Oregon got to 10 wins primarily because of Jimmy Lake’s ineptitude and Kayvon Thibodeaux single-handedly destroying UCLA’s offensive line. Throw in a slew of lucky breaks, and there are ten wins.

Oregon’s 2022 team, with that same record, differed from the previous year in so many ways. The offense was explosive yet in control; game management returned to Autzen. And while the defense regressed, their performances against BYU and UCLA showed potential.

Their three losses came against teams with a combined 36-5 record, a national championship, and a 3-0 bowl record.

Two seasons, two vastly different teams — I would take Oregon’s 2022 team eight days a week over 2021 — yet the same record.

The PAC-12 is on its last leg but might have the best collection of talent in 30 years. Oregon can ensure a playoff spot if they can navigate the conference waters.

But the week two trip to Lubbock, Texas, might determine the overall trajectory.

For this game, it’s essential to remember that “You are not what your record says you are.”

***

You know the feeling too well if you’ve been an Oregon fan for any period. The Ducks, flying off of an impressive win or simply expectations, hits the road for a game against an opponent that, on paper, shouldn’t pose a threat. But too many of us have endured unforgivable losses to Indiana, in Pullman or Palo Alto, or countless other instances.

Oregon’s 2023 roster is 9th in the nation with a 67% blue-chip ratio — meaning that over 2/3 of their roster were 4 of 5-star recruits out of high school. Texas Tech is well below 50%. The Red Raiders’ 8-5 record in 2022 would only add to that narrative that Oregon should take care of business when they head to Lubbock on September 9th.

Fly in, dress up, line up, win, and leave.

But those that only see football through a narrow scope know it’s not that simple.

Texas Tech is the perfect litmus test for an Oregon team eager to take the next step. Reaching #6 in the standings before the late-season collapse, Dan Lanning’s 2022 squad set the framework for the future. However, outside of the opening night murder at the hands of Georgia, the Ducks were never challenged on the road from an environmental standpoint. Their lone road loss after Georgia, to Oregon State, took place in a half-built stadium. Arizona, Cal, and Colorado combined don’t reach the noise level of Autzen. And Washington State, for as passionate as their fans are, is too small to classify.

But Texas Tech? That’s going to be a different vibe. When the program is good, as it will be under second-year head coach Joey McGuire this year, Jones AT&T Stadium is as raucous as any place Oregon has traveled in recent years. It’s the biggest home game they’ve played since Michael Crabtree and Mike Leach were in town, and it’s the perfect showcase for their Big 12 title campaign.

So, no…Texas Tech is not defined by their 8-5 record, just as the Ducks are not by their 10-3 mark. Oregon was arguably better than their final record, and the Red Raiders…well, we don’t fully know. But with the Jones AT&T faithful behind them (that sounds dumb, but whatever), the night environment, and the opportunity to knock off a top-10 program, it doesn’t matter.

Oh, and they have a senior quarterback who would love to knock his old team off the blocks.

Outside of Utah, this will be the loudest road test for Oregon this season; it’s also an excellent way to show where they’re at. Should they win? Yes, they should. Would that make the outcome any less sweet? Absolutely not. In a hostile environment, a tough road win is the perfect launch to their PAC-12 swan song.

They just better prepare for what’s waiting in Lubbock.

The post Path to the CFP, #12: Oregon Needs Guns A-Blazin’ in Lubbock appeared first on On3.