Oregon projected to win Pac-12, according to ESPN FPI

When the national polls were released on Sunday, the Oregon Ducks gained some ground following Saturday’s beatdown of the Colorado Buffaloes.

The Ducks moved up in ESPN’s Power Football Index, too.

Oregon (4-0) climbed one spot in Monday’s updated rankings and now sits at No. 10 nationally and No. 1 in the Pac-12 with a score of 22.4. The Ducks are now favored to win the conference title at 37.8% and have a 32.5% chance to reach the College Football Playoff — sixth-best in the nation — according to ESPN.

Only Ohio State (59.1%), Oklahoma (46.3%), Texas (44.7%), Georgia (36.2%), and Penn State (33.5%) are listed ahead of Oregon.

Oregon’s chances to win each of its remaining games increased, too, with one exeception. Here are the Ducks’ listed percentage chances compared to what they were at this time last week, according to the FPI.

Week 5 at Stanford: 96.6% (previously 96.2%)

Week 7 at Washington: 50.6% (previously 48.4%)

Week 8 vs. Washington State: 89.2% (previously 88.7%)

Week 9 at Utah: 71.9% (previously 62.6%)

Week 10 vs. Cal: 89.5% (previously 86.3%)

Week 11 vs. USC: 62.5% (previously 51.6%)

Week 12 at Arizona State: 96.6% (previously 97.0%).

Week 13 vs. Oregon State: 80.1% (previously 75.3%)

The Ducks delivered their most impressive win of the season on Saturday with a 42-6 demolition of Deion Sanders’ Colorado Buffaloes.

Oregon outgained Colorado 522 yards to 199 and held the Buffs to just 21 total yards during the first half. Bo Nix, Troy Franklin, and Bucky Irving all had big days for a Ducks’ offense that did not punt until the 12:41 mark in the fourth quarter.

“We got the best quarterback in the nation,” Oregon coach Dan Lanning said of Nix afterward. “I know that. I can see that. It’s like again, you see all the plays that he throws and all the plays he makes with his feet, but you guys don’t see all the checks that he makes. You don’t see what he does for this team. You don’t see his leadership. And he sent a text this morning to me that was impactful for me. That guy shapes me. That guy makes me a better person. And we’ve got that guy on our team. So we’re so blessed to have him back, man.”

More on the ESPN Football Power Index

According to ESPN, the Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete.

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