Opinion: Why Mario Cristobal can succeed in Year 2

For Miami Hurricanes fans that want a glimmer of hope off a 5-7 season … and with just one 10-win campaign in the last 19 years … there is reason to believe.

And that starts with Mario Cristobal.

Twice before he has taken over programs as the head coach, first at FIU and then at Oregon.

With the Panthers he endured a 1-11 first season, taking over a roster that was a disaster (it was a team that didn’t win a game the prior year). In Cristobal’s second year at FIU? A four-game improvement, to 5-7. That included two losses by a touchdown or less, and playing close with No. 12 USF before falling, 17-9.

At Oregon? Cristobal became the head coach in 2018 (he was co-coordinator the year prior) and the Ducks went 9-4 off four- and seven-win campaigns. In his second year as head coach there, 2019? Cristobal’s team won three more games, finishing 12-2.

So the history lesson is there: Cristobal arrives, reshapes the roster, and wins follow.

And boy has he reshaped the roster at Miami. In his first year 16 scholarship players departed via the transfer portal; Cristobal added 11 transfers and had the nation’s No. 6 ranked recruiting class with 26 recruits coming on board.

This year Miami jettisoned another 23 scholarship players out of the program, adding 15 transfers (one of whom, Terry Roberts, basically came for a cup of tea and then went back into the portal).

Cristobal’s already on his way to another big, stellar recruiting class as well.

That’s major, major turnover in a short span. Almost half an entire 85-man roster gone to the portal in basically the blink of an eye.

So is the roster talent now where Cristobal wants it? Nowhere close. But it’s starting to take shape in his image, you can see the improvements happening talent-wise and culture-wise.

Speaking of the latter, this is as good a time as any to refresh what QB Tyler Van Dyke said late last month: “Our culture has been the best since I’ve been here,” Van Dyke said. “Guys are putting in every ounce of effort into workouts, watching extra film, extra meeting time. Guys just want to win. We were sick of last season (5-7), how it went for us. Guys have turned the notch to how it needs to be, to that Miami culture.”

This won’t be a team that lays down, as was the case last year when there were whispers of players faking injuries and asking out of games even though they weren’t winded.

Think that’s a culture that begged for a major turnaround?

The pieces have improved almost across the board in Cristobal v. 2.0.

Is it going to be to a 10-win level? That might be tough, and most experts are expecting in the 7-8 win area.

But there’s no reason 5 wins can’t become 8 or even 9 in 2023 and then 10 wins in 2024 and the playoffs in 2025, for example.

At quarterback Van Dyke is back healthy and working in a QB-friendly offense under new coordinator Shannon Dawson. He’s already shown what he can do when he’s on, winning ACC Offensive Rookie of the Year honors in 2022. At running back Mark Fletcher and perhaps transfer Ajay Allen will look to unseat returning starter Henry Parrish. We think Fletcher will be a star as soon as this season. The wide receiver room added Alabama transfer Tyler Harrell and his 4.24-second speed as well as JUCO standout Shemar Kirk, plus freshman speedster Ray Ray Joseph along with signee Robby Washington are looking to make an impact. The rest of the personnel from a year ago is back, too, including a healthy Xavier Restrepo in the slot. At tight end you’ve got a do-it-all guy in Elijah Arroyo, who was hurt most of last year, plus a developing receiving weapon in Jaleel Skinner and a physical presence in Oregon transfer Cam McCormick. Plus Riley Williams is earning rave reviews as a true freshman. Up front the offensive line is probably the most improved position on the team off a horrendous 2022 performance. Alabama starting guard Javion Cohen and UCF starting center Matt Lee are now Canes, and both are NFL level guys. 5-star signee Francis Mauigoa started at RT this spring and very much looks the part, and we expect 5-star signee Samson Okunlola to show he’s ready at left tackle. That would allow returning starter Jalen Rivers to move inside (LT Zion Nelson’s status remains in question).

On defense under new coordinator Lance Guidry the team already has some of the ACC’s best playmakers in DL Akheem Mesidor, DT Leonard Taylor and safeties Kam Kinchens and James Williams. Does Miami need an answer at DT, DE, CB and LB? Sure, but we think DE Nyjalik Kelly can be a breakout guy while the LB situation is shored up by the arrival of Washington State’s Francisco Mauigoa. He will complement Wesley Bissainthe and returning starter Corey Flagg, who is now likely going to be in a backup role inside and outside. So the second DT starter (and depth there) along with the CB situation are the big question marks on D. You saw Miami add DT transfers Branson Deen, Thomas Gore and Anthony Campbell to try and make it work there (with Deen having a leg up to start), and at corner there are four new transfer arrivals with Jaden Davis, Davonte Brown, Ja’Dais Richard and JUCO arrival Demetrius Freeney (Te’Cory Couch is a returning starter at nickel). There will be wide open competition at boundary corner this spring, and may the best man win.

The plan has been laid out for all to see.

Win recruiting battles. Address holes in the roster with transfers.

The caveat here? Cristobal tried this same formula in his first year, and it fell flat.

But given his history as a head coach in Year 2, there should be a lot of optimism that the “blueprint” he talks about so often will work.

Stay tuned.

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