OPINION: Veil of mystery surrounding the Miami Hurricanes v. 2023 will be lifted tomorrow night with a lot of questions to answer

It is a team that literally has been pieced together under the cloak of darkness. There has been very limited media time or even booster time at practice. There have been just two public scrimmages – one in the spring, one in the fall – with watered down play sheets and carefully crafted use of personnel.

The truth of the matter is that nobody really knows what a fair expectation is for this 2023 edition of the Miami Hurricanes.

Not even Mario Cristobal and his coaching staff themselves. All they have to go by is what they have seen in all of those sessions behind curtains on the practice field. Is that a true barometer when your team went 5-7 last season and has turned over 40 roster spots since closing day?

It’s not. History has taught us that. So get ready to head into the realm of the unknown and live with the anxiety and butterflies in the stomach that it means.

Yet here we are, this new season upon us, kickoff set for 7 p.m. Friday night against Miami-Ohio under the lights at Hard Rock Stadium.

Let’s call this one the ultimate Friday night Happy Hour with Mario. But there won’t be happiness by midnight if these 2023 Canes don’t show up considerably better than the 2022 model.

There is every reason to believe that it will. The Hurricanes are simply Bigger, Faster and Better than they were a year ago. That’s undeniable, from the mammoth offensive line that has been assembled to the running back room where freshman Mark Fletcher and Nebraska transfer Ajay Alen seem poised to reinvent the Miami run game.

But the depth is still scary thin in spots from all the years of roster neglect prior to Cristobal’s arrival. Every sin of two decades can’t be erased by the start of season two for Cristobal, who also had to repair his own coaching hire mistakes after year one.

This reclamation of the Miami brand is a daily battle that will go on for a while no matter how much some of the naysayers want to protest. Everything won’t go right this season. You can enjoy it for what it will be, a maniacal effort by a very entertaining football team to be the best it can be and see where that takes it. Or individual fans can choose to be vocal detractors on social media at the first sign of trouble, which there certainly will be.

It’s really that simple. This is a season about expectations and managing them. The outside world doesn’t have any at all. Miami was unranked in the AP Poll and came in at No. 41 in the initial Coaches’ poll. The coaches around the country have taken notice of the work being done in recruiting, the media has not. The media has seen the Hurricanes disappoint too many times over the years.

So what does this 2023 Miami team look like heading into opening night? Let’s take a look under the hood and then prognosticate a little on where this season might end up.

QUARTERBACK

The hand injury that Tyler Van Dyke has been dealing with for the past week after slamming his hand on a helmet was a simple distraction that everybody obviously preferred had not happened. But in the big picture, it won’t diminish the preparation that Van Dyke has put into getting ready for the season or the quality way that he has been practicing in preparation for the season.

Let’s assume for now that Van Dyke does make it to the starting line Friday night. Van Dyke has a complete grasp of Shannon Dawson’s offense which is passing game friendly. Plays are designed to get the ball in the hands of playmakers and Van Dyke has more of them at his disposal this year than last season. On the flip side, he may not have a Charleston Rambo-level receiver to rely on. You will remember that in 2021, Rambo led the Hurricanes in catches (79), receiving yards (1,172) and receiving touchdowns (seven) as the legend of TVD and Tyler Van Dymes took life.

The 2023 Hurricanes may not have a No. 1 receiver in that mold unless someone busts out and emerges the way Rambo did two seasons ago. That can catch up to you in big games, but if he stays healthy, there is little doubt Van Dyke will put up monster stats in this offense. He still is doing just fine in the NIL world, but his representatives have wisely dialed it all down coming into this critical season. For example, the Tyler Van Dymes online clothing store is an empty collection and you don’t see Van Dyke in doctor’s office chairs this time around.

“Our passing game has come along,” Dawson said. “We’re not sitting here, and I’ve said this multiple times – we don’t have a 100-reception guy coming back, we have to find out who our dudes are. I think we have a good idea, but I’d like to be pleasantly surprised. Have to make plays in games.”

With Dawson at Houston, quarterback Clayton Tune threw for 4,074 yards and 40 touchdowns last season. Receiver Nathaniel Dell was a 1,400-yard receiver. So Dawson knows he can put up some real numbers in his offense with the right players even if he doesn’t yet know who will be on the receiving end of all of those Van Dyke passes. He told us this week that guys will get early opportunities to carry over quality work on the practice field into games and he will game plan accordingly.

Van Dyke proved in 2021 that he can get the job done when healthy. He completed 202 of 324 passes for 2,931 yards and 25 touchdowns and threw just six interceptions. We won’t even talk about 2022 when he struggled early getting on the same page with offensive coordinator Josh Gattis’ offense and then suffered from a badly-sprained shoulder the second half of the season.

A trickier question here is who is the backup quarterback. Jacurri Brown played last season so that gives him a natural edge over true freshman Emory Williams. But Williams is coming fast and is a considerably more natural passer. If Van Dyke had to be out Friday night or at any point this season, Cristobal would have a massive decision to make in terms of who to play first. Brown is better than he has been, but Williams might be the best equipped to lead the overall Dawson offense in the big picture.

RUNNING BACK

A position that went into spring practice with a lot of uncertainty has emerged as one of the strengths of the team.

Freshman Mark Fletcher and Nebraska transfer Ajay Allen have injected a two-ton dose of stud ability into the roster that has transformed the Miami running game. Fletcher is a pure power back with good enough speed and Allen is a one-cut slasher who showed up very focused on making an instant impact.

Henry Parrish may still start, but he won’t have to be a workhorse back this season. Parrish never really recovered last year from a heavy early load that his body did not handle very well.

Dawson will be able to rotate those three and even use Don Chaney at times to keep everybody fresh. I expect huge things from the Miami ground game this season.

WIDE RECEIVER

Colbie Young (photo by Neil Gershman)

Colbie Young, Xavier Restrepo and Jacolby George will get the first opportunities to emerge as the 1,000-yard receiver that Dawson covets. But freshman Ray Ray Joseph should also get plenty of chances to make an impression early in his Miami career. And speed demon Tyler Harrell was not plucked out of the transfer portal to sit. He will be used to spread the defense and open windows for Van Dyke throws while also promising to be a steady deep target.

Young has worked on his body in the off-season and is in much better shape than a year ago. He is a big target in the red zone and on the sideline and Dawson will utilize him quite a bit on deep routes. He was a steady performer in fall camp. Restrepo has incredible chemistry with close friend Van Dyke and will be an often-targeted possession receiver in the slot. George has uncanny ability and there is hope that this will be the season where he pulls everything together.

There are a host of other guys who will be searching for chances to be seen. Brashard Smith, Shemar Kirk, Frank Ladson, Isaiah Horton, Michael Redding and Robby Washington will all have to scrap for opportunities and capitalize on them when they evolve.

TIGHT ENDS

Injuries throughout training camp have really hindered the development of this group in the new offense. Cristobal declared everyone on the team healthy earlier this week, but how healthy the tight ends are remains to be seen.

All things equal, veteran transfer Cam McCormick would be a force in the run game while also capable of catching a pass or two on first down. Elijah Arroyo should be looking forward to a great season, but there remain question whether he is fully-recovered from his season-ending ACL injury of last season.

Jaleel Skinner remains inconsistent and we don’t know how much Dawson will be looking to feature him because of that. Freshman Riley Williams is highly-regarded, maybe a future star, but has also been banged up. Freshman Jackson Carver has been learning.

So the tight end position is in a bit of a state of flux right now.

OFFENSIVE LINE

Tyler Van Dyke and Javion Cohen (photo by Neil Gershman)

This position has undergone a complete transformation. It’s the equivalent of a blood transfusion, really.

Transfer Center Matt Lee and transfer guard Javion Cohen have totally changed everything up front with their ability levels, experience and leadership. Their arrival has allowed Jalen Rivers to slide out to left tackle, where he has made steady improvement through the spring and fall. Anez Cooper returns in better shape than a year ago to reclaim the right guard position and true freshman Francis Mauigoa will start at right tackle.

The lone remaining issue here is depth. It’s not very good and injuries on the line could compromise the season.

Matthew McCoy is believed to be ready for more advanced playing time. Five-star freshman Samson Okunlola remains a work in progress simply because the level of play he experienced in high school in Massachusetts was not very good. But if Miami has to go deeper than those two it could get a little dicey though freshman Tommy Kinsler is believed to be a future star. Think guys like Logan Sagapolu and Jon Denis.

DEFENSIVE LINE

Mel Kiper laid down the hammer on defensive tackle Leonard Taylor this week when he proclaimed the Miami defensive tackle would be the No. 13 pick in the NFL Draft next April. That shows Taylor the kind of potential the NFL guys think that he has.

But now the onus is on Taylor to show that kind of quality. He must become an every-down force and stop taking plays off. In addition to the personal rewards waiting for him if he does that, Taylor’s play in the middle of the Miami defense will shape the way this season goes as much as anybody on the team not named Tyler Van Dyke.

Purdue transfer Brandon Deen is unheralded, but one of the more interesting pickups from the portal this year. He was a workmanlike performer at Purdue, steady but not spectacular. But Miami needs guys next to Taylor that can be counted upon and it is looking like Deen will be the first man up in that regard.

Deen had 25 QB pressures last season at Purdue per Pro Football Focus along with 2.5 sacks. If he can produce that again this year, this would have to be labeled a quality pickup.

The rest of the defensive tackle rotation will likely evolve as the season progresses. Jared Harrison-Hunte is experienced and could be the first guy off the bench. Jacob Lichtenstein is another veteran tackle who should be part of the rotation.

But there is going to be some playing time on the interior claimed by true freshman Rueben Bain, who is expected to play a big role in pass rush situations. Another freshman, Joshua Horton, is considered a future star, but it is unknown how ready he will be early this season. If Horton can evolve into a 15-20 play a game guy, it would make the Miami defense better.

Other guys to keep in mind: Ahmad Moten had a productive training camp. Thomas Gore was efficient at Georgia State with five sacks, but he is undersized and it is going to be more difficult for him at this level. It is unknown what kind of role Louisiana-Monroe transfer Anthony Campbell might play this season.

Meanwhile, Akheem Mesidor is back to man one defensive end spot after logging eight sacks a year ago. Look for coaches to give second-year standout Nyjalik Kelly every opportunity to secure the other starting spot at end. Kelly is very highly valued with the coaching staff and has been Jason Taylor’s personal project this off-season. Kelly is going to be great and the feeling is that the time is now to turn him loose. He had five sacks last year in limited reps. With more full-time duty, he could become a double-digit sack guy. Jahfari Harvey will still get plenty of action – he had five sacks last season as well – but Miami won’t wait any longer to explore Kelly’s upside.

Chantz Williams has had a good fall camp and will pick up some additional reps after Mesidor, Kelly, Harvey and Bain get their time on the field. Freshman Jayden Wayne has also been doing well and may play some in his first year.

LINEBACKERS

Francisco Mauigoa (photo by Neil Gershman)

This might have been the biggest weak point on the roster heading into the off-season. But it was greatly fortified when Francisco Mauigoa was lured via the transfer portal from Washington State. Mauigoa now gives the Miami defense a rock in the middle, equally proficient at stopping the run as he is covering backs and tight ends in pass defense.

Miami’s returning linebackers struggled on all fronts last year and this week Lance Guidry suggested that nobody had really separated themselves to play alongside Mauigoa. That means Corey Flagg, Wesley Bissainthe and KJ Cloyd are all be in the mix.

Keontra Smith will get some opportunities for sure. Chase Smith has returned from what has seemed like a permanent home on the injured list, but it remains to be seen how much he can contribute this season.

There will be times when James Williams is utilized as a third linebacker, both as a safety dropping down and even as a standup linebacker against certain offenses.

There is a quality freshman group headed by Marcellius Pulliam, Malik Bryant, Bobby Washington and Raul Aguirre, but they might not be ready to play much early in the season. They likely all will be utilized on special teams.

The bottom line at linebacker is that it’s all about Mauigoa and whether he can surge onto the radar quick enough to be considered for an All-Conference season. He is that good.

DEFENSIVE BACKS

Lance Guidry’s defensive schemes are very friendly to the defensive backs who get to be very active. You will see both corner and safety blitzes at various times each week.

James Williams and Kam Kinchens are being heralded as perhaps the nation’s best safety tandem and they certainly will get many opportunities to stand out because of Guidry’s aggressive mindset.

But the bottom line at this position is that UM has to cover better than it did a year ago when the Hurricanes were one of the poorer pass defense teams in the nation.

With that in mind, the coaches hit the transfer portal hard for cornerbacks, bringing in Jaden Davis from Oklahoma, Davonte Brown from UCF, Ja’Dais Richard from Vanderbilt and Demetrius Freeney from the College of San Mateo in California.

Brown is expected to start and will be an obvious key to improvement this year. He is a bigger corner and held up pretty well at UCF. Davis was at least as good or better at Oklahoma. So those two pickups in particular should help the Hurricanes improve a lot. Richard played quite a bit of ball in the SEC at Vanderbilt and is being developed as another corner.

The imports can’t make us forget about returnee Te’Cory Couch, who can work outside or in the slot. But they do make Miami deeper and more capable of holding up when opponents go to multiple receiver sets. Daryl Porter, who arrived through the portal from West Virginia a year ago, also is in the running for significant playing time and even could start. Damari Brown has also impressed and is in the mix.

At safety, Kinchens was tied for the most interceptions in the country last year after a three-interception game against Georgia Tech. That gave him the resume that landed him on first team All American teams. But the truth of the matter is that like everyone at this position, he was too inconsistent and had a few too many coverage busts. Miami needs Kinchens to play like an All American this season.

Wlliams was particularly bad in coverage and that is why you might see Guidry utilize him more in a linebacker role this season. That would allow Jaden Harris and Markeith Williams to play more at safety.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Andy Borregales (photo by Neil Gershman)

Kicker Andy Borregales has added weight over the off-season and Cristobal said he is kicking the ball with considerably more explosion. He should be one of the better kickers in the country this year.

We will be getting our first game day look at new Aussie punter Dylen Joyce, who is looking to follow in the footsteps of fellow Aussie Lou Hedley, who moved on and made the New Orleans Saints roster. Joyce has gotten rave reviews through camp, now just has to perform under the lights.

Coaches have a lot of options on kick returns, but we expect to see a lot of Restrepo and possibly Ray Ray Joseph in that area of the game.

To sum it all up, there is probably a truth in the middle between the weak national perception of the Hurricanes and the reality of what kind of team this will be.

It is very important that the Hurricanes get out of the gate fast. This has been a team with a fragile psyche in years past and early-season losses have had a lingering effect. I see the Texas A&M game as being season-defining even though it is a non-conference game and thus less meaningful. It will be important for the Canes to change the narrative around the program very early-on in the season.

In the meantime, I think this will be a very fun and exciting team to watch. There is a lot more talent on both sides of the ball, just a lot of adjustments to be made with all of the coaching staff changes and personnel turnover.

Vegas oddsmakers have set the bar at 7.5 for the season, and that is probably fair and about right. I’m going to take the over. I think this team will win at least eight games. Obviously I’m hoping for more, just don’t have a handle on whether that is reality or not. We will know a lot more after the Texas A&M game.

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