OPINION: The “Dome Effect” might be real and impact Miami Hurricanes in Final Four … or it might be a unicorn

It’s referred to as the “dome effect,” and it has nothing to do with missing hair atop the heads of the coaches leading the Miami Hurricanes and Connecticut Huskies into the Final Four showdown at NRG Stadium on Saturday night.

Depending on who you ask, the “dome effect” is as real as a basketball net … or as real as a unicorn.

It relates to the idea that shooting threes in a giant dome, ala NRG Stadium, is more difficult on players than the traditional home college courts. If that’s true, it could have a detrimental effect on a smaller Miami team that might have to rely on long-range shots vs. a bigger UConn team that can rely on inside scoring.

There are some statistics that perhaps back up the idea that long-range dome shooting is more difficult. A study from 2006-15 by Sports-Reference.com/cbb determined that NRG Stadium had an almost 8% worse three-point shooting percentage in the NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 and beyond than average for teams that played there.

The only open domes worse: Smoothie King Center, Spectrum Center, RCA Dome and Metrodome (12% worse shooting 3-point percentage than normal).

Overall, of 29 venues studied, NRG Stadium had the eight-worst three-point percentage overall and fifth-worst when you compare it to each teams particular three-point percentage (instead of a general college average).

The study also shows that teams averaged 9.7 points less in NRG Stadium compared to its average when looking at the Sweet 16 and beyond.

So how does this relate to the upcoming game? Well, Miami has shot an average of 20.4 threes per game, making 36.9 percent. Connecticut, meanwhile, averages 25.1 threes and makes 36.3 percent.

So, in general terms, if the Dome Effect is real it could hurt the Huskies more. However, in this particular matchup it would not be surprise if UConn’s game plan is to do a lot of paint scoring whereas in a big, physical BIG EAST hitting from long range is more necessary.

Also keep in mind that both teams will practice in the dome for two days prior to the game, getting used to any weird aerodynamic or visual situations there.

“I’ve never played in a dome, the closest experience is Syracuse,” ACC Player of the Year Miami guard Isaiah Wong said. “I don’t know the experience, but I’ll go and take it day by day.”

Wong said he made “a little” bit of adjustments shooting at Syracuse.

“Get reps, you get used to it,” he said.

So expect Miami to do A LOT of shooting at the venue heading into the game to become acclimated.

“Shooting in a dome is very, very different,” coach Jim Larranaga said. “It’s like you’re outdoors. So you have to get more comfortable with it, have some practices. Just like we did going into the tournament using a different basketball. That’s not the basketball we use at home here. So the guys had to get comfortable handling the ball, now they have to get comfortable shooting in the dome.

“We are playing in a dome, 72,000 people at the game. The spatial relationship is different – you can scream as loud as you want, the players will never hear you. … My experience of being at a number of Final Fours is that the venue is very different. You’re playing basketball in a football stadium. It’s very, very hard to communicate. It’s going to take time for our players to adjust to it. But we (practice) on Thursday and Friday in the stadium. Hopefully our guys will be very, very comfortable and confident on Saturday.”

Also consider this: The above referenced study ranged from 2006-15, so it didn’t include a Final Four at NRG Stadium in 2016. That Final Four saw North Carolina score 83 points and Villanova 95 in Final Four wins, with Villanova winning the title game, 77-74.

The Wildcats made 19 of 32 three-pointers in its two games at NRG Stadium in winning the title, a ridiculous 59.4 percent from long range.

UNC made 15 of 34 (44.1 percent) including 11 of 17 makes in the title game.

There even was a FiveThirtyEight story in 2016 headlined “The Dome Effect Isn’t Real; The NRG Effect Is Complicated“.

It argued that team offense and opponent defense were determining factors and not the venue, using data points to argue that teams in open domes “shoot slightly worse overall – but shoot threes just fine”.

So maybe the Dome Effect is just a unicorn after all.

Miami will make that determination for itself on Saturday … and perhaps on Monday as well.

“It’s going to be a really crazy adjustment,” Bensley Joseph says. “72,000 people, it’s going to be hard to hear. We’ll ty to be on the same page as much as possible.”

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