Opinion: Breaking down the best- and worst-case scenarios for the Miami Hurricanes football team in 2023

Every season there are prognosticators that try to set the bar for the Miami Hurricanes’ win-loss record.

A year ago nobody saw a 5-7 season coming.

This year the bar is set at 7.5 wins if you want to believe the betting line.

But that doesn’t take into account the upper echelon potential of this team … or the chances that thing may go wrong and bottom out if there are injuries, etc.

So with that in mind, let’s take a look at the ceiling and the cellar for the 2023 Miami Hurricanes.

MIAMI HURRICANES 2023 SEASON GLASS IS HALF FULL OUTLOOK

It’s hard for even the stoutest Miami fan to go off the limb and predict a 12-0 or 11-1 season after what we saw a year ago and with a challenging schedule, but realistically you could go out on a limb and say that a 10-2 record isn’t out of the realm of possibility. Is there less than a 10 percent chance of that happening? Probably. But some things could come together to make it all click.

That starts with a new QB-friendly offense that should reap immediate dividends with Tyler Van Dyke back healthy plus an aggressive and unpredictable defense under new coordinator Lance Guidry that could confuse opponents.

The two losses we think are most likely are, no surprise, to Florida State and Clemson. Those are viewed by many as top 10 national programs and it’s hard for anyone that has watched this Miami program recently to make the same claim about the Canes.

But other opponents have some holes and Miami could sneak away with wins. Texas A&M is coming off a 5-7 season and has offensive question marks. There is no assurance that UNC’s defense will be stout, and NC State has question marks on offense. Louisville is sort of like Miami with some roster holes that mean the team could have an up or down season. The other opponents we have penciled in as pretty easy wins – Miami (Ohio), Bethune-Cookman, Temple and BC along with Virginia and Georgia Tech teams that might be improved but will still be toward the bottom of the conference.

Of course, to get to 10 wins Miami will need some of its new personnel to come through. You’ve got key returners on offense like QB Tyler Van Dyke, RB Henry Parrish, TE Elijah Arroyo and OL Jalen Rivers, and on defense DL Akheem Mesidor, DT Leonard Taylor, S James Williams and All-American S Kam Kinchens.

Those are the top end guys that are back.

So for Miami to hit that 10-win mark you’re going to need some new faces to come through – of the transfer and freshman variety.

There are plenty of those.

Guys that could make a big immediate splash on offense include WRs Ray Ray Joseph (true freshman) and Tyler Harrell (Alabama transfer), RB Mark Fletcher (true freshman), TE Cam McCormick (Oregon transfer), OL 5-star signees Francis Mauigoa and Samson Okunlola plus OL transfers Matt Lee (UCF) and Javion Cohen (Alabama). On defense there are six new cornerbacks on the roster (two true freshmen, four transfers) that will battle it out in fall drills, and MLB Francisco Mauigoa (Washington State transfer) looks like the real deal. Up front true freshman Rueben Bain will have a say, and Purdue transfer DT Branson Deen looks like he will start.

Plus there are other returners that eithere weren’t top performers or were on the backburner last year who are looking to break out like RB Don Chaney, WR Colbie Young, WR Jacolby George, WR Isaiah Horton, TE Jaleel Skinner, DE Nyjalik Kelly, LB Wesley Bissainthe, etc.

It’s very much a new-look team for Miami.

And, perhaps, with some new results, like 10 wins.

MIAMI HURRICANES 2023 SEASON GLASS IS HALF EMPTY OUTLOOK

Let’s face it, this is a program that’s wallowed in disappointment for a while now. Miami has won 10 games just once in the last 19 seasons, a once unfathomable statistic for a program that had won 10 or more games in nine of 10 seasons from 1985-94. But reality is reality, and coach Mario Cristobal is looking to rebuild UM from the ground up.

Could another 5-win season be possible? Well, it’s not something you can rule out, but it’s probably about as likely as Miami winning 11 games.

On this side of the win-loss seesaw there are still a lot of unknowns, including new coordinators that need the team to really understand what they want to do and a revamped roster that includes 14 new transfers and 25 recruits (including two JUCO arrivals). That’s 46 percent of the 85-player roster.

There also can be unforeseen injuries, and Miami doesn’t have any real proven depth at QB, RB, OL, DT, LB or CB. That’s a lot of positions.

Then there’s the schedule. Miami’s already been listed by DraftKings as a 6-5-point underdog at home vs. Texas A&M, gives up 10 points at Clemson and is a double-digit underdog at FSU as well, plus the Canes are likely going to be underdogs at North Carolina.

With those considered probable losses, there also will be matchups against pretty good NC State and Louisville teams. Those could go either way.

So that’s six potential losses to decent teams.

Also let’s not forget that last year we saw some surprise losses, including to Middle Tennessee State.

In today’s college football, there can be a hair of difference between winning and losing. When a subpar team shows up and plays its best and you don’t … well we’ve seen enough brutal Canes losses in the last several years we don’t have to rehash them.

With that said, the for-sure wins on the schedule, you have to think regardless of injuries, etc., are Miami (Ohio), Bethune-Cookman, Temple and BC. Virginia and Georgia Tech also have no business playing with Miami and should be among the ACC’s worst teams. So we have to think six wins is the cellar in 2023.

Which already is one more win than a year ago.

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