On3 Roundtable: 8-4 is ‘realistic expectation’ Kentucky in 2023

Kentucky football is projected for 6.5 wins in 2023 according to oddsmakers, but KSR‘s Drew Franklin likes the Wildcats to surpass that. In a recent On3 Roundtable discussion, Franklin laid out why he is taking the over on that number with a look at UK’s schedule for the upcoming season.

He counted three nonconference games against Ball State, Eastern Kentucky and Akron as games the Wildcats should win, then broke down some key matchups in the SEC slate.

“Well, I’m an admitted homer,” Franklin began. “I’m a fan. So, obviously, I’m leaning with the over but I will try to be objective with this and I really do think the over is a good pick here. I mean, you’ve got the three, what I call, the free bingo squares, free squares on the bingo on the nonconference games.

“I just really think it’ll come down to winning the usual slate of that SEC run of South Carolina, Tennessee, Florida, and Missouri, and then they have Georgia and Alabama this year. Throw those two out. But I think that middle-of-the-road SEC will decide it and I think if they can win two of those, that’ll get them to seven games overall.”

With games against the Bulldogs and Crimson Tide crossed out as losses, that means Kentucky would need to go 3-3 over its remaining conference games to reach seven wins. Franklin believes they will also defeat Louisville in the rivalry game to close the season and go 4-0 in nonconference action. The Wildcats have won five of the past six contests against the Cardinals, who are entering their first season under coach Jeff Brohm.

Kentucky also faces Vanderbilt on the road on Sept. 23, and it seems Franklin expects the Wildcats to win that game. UK suffered a 24-21 upset loss to the Commodores in Lexington last season but had won in six straight meetings prior to that.

Of the remaining five conference contests, three of them (Florida, Missouri and Tennessee) are home games. That has Franklin feeling confident that Kentucky can come out on top in at least two to reach seven wins.

“I count Louisville as a win,” Franklin said. “I might be a little optimistic there but I’m a bit of a hater. I think Brohm will have them playing well but they’ll need another year. But I think if Kentucky could just win (against) Tennessee, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Missouri or Florida, two of that five, they’ll hit the seven mark and I think they get to 8-4 as a realistic expectation. Maybe a nine if you want to dream; 7-5 is kind of a more realistic floor for me.”

Adding to the case to take the over, Kentucky has finished with at least seven wins in six of the past seven football seasons. The Wildcats had also won four straight bowl games before falling in the Music City Bowl to Iowa in 2022.

The 2023 season will bring a big change for Kentucky, as starting quarterback Will Levis is on to the NFL. However, they bring in NC State transfer Devin Leary to replace him and return 14 starters, including their top three leading receivers from last season in Barrion Brown, Dane Key and Tayvion Robinson.

That in mind, seven wins seems easily attainable for the Wildcats with a chance for even more in 2023.

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