NCAA Tournament Resume Watch: Unpacking the damage from Kentucky’s loss to Arkansas

Kentucky’s loss to Arkansas was brutal for many reasons. It was an emotional blow to the fanbase, which had John Calipari’s return to Lexington circled on the calendar since April, and a wake-up call to this team’s limitations without Lamont Butler; however, the biggest consequence may be the damage it did to the Cats’ NCAA Tournament resume.

Going into the Arkansas game, Kentucky was No. 10 in the NET Rankings, its highest standing in the metric since mid-January. Yesterday, the Cats fell nine spots to No. 19, the lowest they’ve been since starting SEC play. As expected, the Razorbacks got a big boost, climbing from No. 59 to No. 47, which puts them in NCAA Tournament bubble territory.

Let’s talk team sheet, which the Selection Committee will use as it determines the Cats’ seed in the NCAA Tournament. The loss was Kentucky’s first outside Quad 1. Seven of the ten remaining regular-season games are in Quad 1 (Quad 1A, to be specific), meaning there are plenty of opportunities to make up for the loss; however, it could still be the difference in a seed line. The loss also makes it doubly important for Kentucky to avoid slipping up in its games outside Quad 1 (South Carolina, Vanderbilt, LSU).

I don’t envy the Selection Committee when it comes to evaluating Kentucky. The Cats are 6-1 against AP Top 15 teams but three of their six losses have been by double digits to unranked teams The past week is a great example of that maddening inconsistency. After losing at Vandy, Kentucky rebounded with a stunning victory at Tennessee only to lose at home to Arkansas. Going into Saturday, Kentucky was trending as a No. 3 seed; without some more big wins, it may be hard for them to climb that high again.

Let’s break it all down.

Quad 1: 7-5 (Games Remaining: 7)

Quad 1A: 6-3

Quad 1B: 1-2

Quad 2: 0-1 (Games Remaining: 2)

Quad 3: 2-0 (Games Remaining: 1)

Quad 4: 6-0 (Games Remaining: 0)

Quad 1: 7-5

Quad 1: Home: 1-30 | Neutral: 1-50 | Away: 1-75

*Quad 1A: Home 1-15 | Neutral 1-25 | Away 1-40

Quad 1B: Home 16-30 | Neutral 26-50 | Away 41-75

NET RankingDateOpponentResult103/01/2025* Auburn211/12/2024* Duke (Champions Classic)W 77-72401/28/2025* @ TennesseeW 78-73402/11/2025* Tennessee501/04/2025* FloridaW 106-100602/22/2025* @ Alabama601/18/2025* AlabamaL 97-1021312/07/2024* Gonzaga (Seattle)W 90-89 (1 OT)1401/14/2025* Texas A&MW 81-692103/08/2025* @ Missouri2302/04/2025* @ Ole Miss2502/15/2025* @ Texas2612/21/2024 Ohio State (CBS Sports Classic)L 65-852912/14/2024 LouisvilleW 93-853012/03/2024* @ ClemsonL 66-703101/11/2025* @ Mississippi StateW 95-903401/07/2025* @ GeorgiaL 69-823802/26/2025* @ Oklahoma4401/25/2025@ VanderbiltL 69-74* Quad 1A win

Quad 2: 0-1

Home: 31-75 | Neutral: 51-100 | Away: 76-135

NET RankingDateOpponentResult4402/19/2025 Vanderbilt4702/01/2025 ArkansasL 79-897403/04/2025 LSU

Quad 3: 2-0

Home: 76-160 | Neutral: 101-200 | Away: 136-240

NET Ranking DateOpponentResult9202/08/2025 South Carolina9511/19/2024 LipscombW 97-6812011/26/2024 Western Ky.W 87-68

Quad 4: 6-0

Home: 161-362 | Neutral: 201-362 | Away: 241-362

NET RankingDateOpponentResult18711/04/2024 Wright StateW 103-6222612/31/2024 BrownW 88-5423712/11/2024 ColgateW 78-6724111/09/2024 BucknellW 100-7229811/29/2024 Georgia StateW 105-7630311/22/2024 Jackson StateW 108-59

Team Sheet Notes

— Kentucky is still tied for third with Texas A&M in the country in Quad 1 wins (7) behind Auburn (12) and Oregon (8); however, they’ve now got a Quad 2 loss. A good example of how much those can hurt you is Oregon. Although Oregon has the aforementioned eight Quad 1 wins, its two Quad 2 losses make them No. 37 in the NET Rankings.

— We talk a lot about the strength of the SEC. Here’s another way to look at it: of the eight highest-ranked SEC teams in the NET, Kentucky is the only one with a loss outside Quad 1. The SEC is so tough that most conference games are falling in Quad 1, which makes it even more important not to drop the games you’re supposed to win.

NETTEAMRECORDQUAD 1QUAD 2QUAD 3QUAD 41Auburn20-112-12-02-04-04Tennessee18-45-43-03-07-05Florida18-34-35-02-07-06Alabama19-36-38-03-02-014Texas A&M17-57-55-00-05-019Kentucky15-67-50-12-06-021Missouri17-44-43-02-08-023Ole Miss16-65-63-01-07-0

— All of Kentucky’s Quad 1 games are safely in the margins, but the LSU game could soon drop from Quad 2 to Quad 3 if the Tigers don’t get it together. After home losses to Auburn and Texas, LSU is down to No. 74 in the NET. If the Tigers fall below No. 76, the game at Rupp Arena on March 4 will move to Quad 3.

The Road Ahead

Want to show the loss to Arkansas was a fluke? A win at Ole Miss tomorrow would be a good start. That game is in Quad 1A (as are all of Kentucky’s remaining Quad 1 games). Saturday’s game vs. South Carolina is in Quad 3. Pull off a big road win and take care of business at home. Easier said than done, especially if the Cats continue to be without Lamont Butler.

DateOpponentNET RankQuad02/04/2025@ Ole Miss23Quad 1A02/08/2025 South Carolina92Quad 302/11/2025 Tennessee4Quad 1A02/15/2025@ Texas25Quad 1A02/19/2025 Vanderbilt44Quad 202/22/2025@ Alabama6Quad 1A02/26/2025@ Oklahoma38Quad 1A03/01/2025 Auburn1Quad 1A03/04/2025 LSU74Quad 203/08/2025@ Missouri21Quad 1A

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