NC State in the world of college realignment

Here we go again. NCAA realignment talk is front and center, and this time NC State is somewhat attached.

News spread Monday that the Wolfpack was among seven Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) teams, dubbed the “Magnificent Seven” by Brett McMurphy of The Action Network, that have been meeting, perhaps clandestinely, to view options including scrutinizing the ACC’s Grant of Rights.

The other six schools are Clemson, Florida State, Miami, Virginia and Virginia Tech.

The fact that the news broke at the start of the ACC Meetings in Amelia Island, Fla., only heightened the development.

What is to take away from that for NC State. Here are some thoughts.

Don’t get too excited, yet

Nothing is inevitable in the immediate future. However, there’s hard to see a viable path for the ACC in its current configuration to still be around a decade from now, short of Notre Dame joining the league full-time.

There is a real possibility that the grant of rights (GOR) keeps the ACC lingering for a few more years until the length remaining reaches a point where the financial costs becomes less problematic.

Coincidentally or not, the next Southeastern Conference (SEC) TV contract comes up in 2034. The Big Ten is signed through the 2030. The ACC’s GOR runs through 2036. Thus when those two financial behemoth of leagues reach the point of negotiations for their next TV contract, adding an attractive property from vulnerable conferences like the ACC will enhance the deal, and the ACC’s GOR will not be near as prohibitive.

Thus expecting a massive jumping ship from NC State and the other six schools in the summer of 2023 may not be realistic. A lot of this may be negotiating ploys, especially from Clemson and Florida State, to enhance the odds of working out an unequal revenue share that may be long overdue but will cost a few reluctant schools in the ACC millions of dollars.

One astute observer noted that most teams that bolt conferences have done so discreetly. The news that Texas and Oklahoma were leaving the Big 12 for the SEC and that UCLA and USC were out of the Pac-12 for the Big 10 sent shockwaves because the news was that, shocking.

Florida State’s public proclamations between board meetings and media interviews with On3 affiliate WarChant.com is anything but discreet. If FSU had something lined up, the Noles would likely not be pushing for a new revenue sharing model and instead spending much more time quietly gearing up for a huge legal battle.

What’s realistic for NC State?

The reality is that the SEC and Big 10 would only have so many intriguing options in the ACC, and it is questionable the level of interest they have getting involved in a significant legal battle. There’s a reason why Texas and Oklahoma are still in the Big 12 for what will be a third season since the announcement they were joining the SEC.

Thus the only true path for the schools that would be of seemingly certain interest for the Big 10 and SEC, i.e. Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina and Virginia, would be to find a way to dissolve the ACC’s GOR. Those schools, though, can be fairly certain that there is a destination on the other end if that happened.

NC State and Virginia Tech, for example, are more uncertain. Each could be tied to their respective in-state rivals. The Hokies effectively used that to get into the ACC when the original league expansion targets were Boston College, Miami and Syracuse. Virginia Tech joined with Miami instead. A year later, BC jumped aboard.

There is perhaps a scenario where the SEC is keen to add the North Carolina and Virginia markets to their footprint and would target a NC State and Virginia Tech if UNC and Virginia were to head to the Big 10.

The bigger deal in the immediate future that could have lasting impacts on the ACC schools like NC State is what does the Pac-12 do? They have been in a prolonged negotiations for a new media rights deal, and if attractive enough could hold the league together.

If not, the Big 12 is ready to pounce.

That league is believed to targeting 14-16 as a number of teams. Once Texas and Oklahoma leave after this year, the conference will be sitting at 12. NC State and Virginia Tech could be attractive options for the league to pair with some of its more eastern-based programs like Central Florida and West Virginia.

The one far-fetched scenario is that the group of seven ACC teams add a few more league brethren and breakaway to form a smaller conference. One of the issues the league currently faces is that some schools add little media rights value, notably Boston College and Wake Forest.

Would forming a new conference essentially net a similar-sized TV deal but with less teams to spread the money out? Could a reconfigured 10-team league get a deal that separates from the Pac-12 and Big 12?

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