Luckett’s Locks: 10 best bets for college football season win totals
Everyone in college football has hope during the summer. No one has lost a game yet. However, games will be played eventually. Predicting what happens is part of what makes following this sport so fun.
Thanks to the good folks in the desert, we have specific numbers attached to every team in college football to set expectations.
Using numbers provided at Draft Kings, we are diving into college football season win totals. For the fourth year in a row, I will be publishing official picks to get our gambling football coverage officially started for the 2023 season. After a 7-3 finish last year, the running total is now up to 24-6. That is some return on investment.
In the latest episode of 11 Personnel, Nick Roush and I gave out our official five best over/under picks. For our KSR+ audience, I’ll be diving deeper into the subject.
I’ve put together my 10 best over/under plays three months after visiting this subject in May. Once again, there is a heavy ACC flavor in the group of 10 teams with a Group of Five darling thrown in. The games are almost here.
Let’s get to the window.
Virginia Tech Over 5 (-120)
Things did not go great for first-time head coach Brent Pry in year one. The former Penn State defensive coordinator had one of the worst offenses in the Power Five and refused to give up defensive play-calling duties. Pry is letting go of the play sheet this season and found some big upgrades at wideout in the transfer portal. The Hokies have winnable non-con games against Purdue and Rutgers. The ACC program also doesn’t draw Clemson in league play.
There are numerous toss-up games on the schedule. Getting to 6-6 feels like a safe bet despite this roster still having some talent issues. I like rolling with first-time defensive head coaches in year two after a disappointing year one.
Play the over.
Oklahoma State Over 6.5 (-110)
The Pokes took a step back in 2022 losing 6 of 8 games to close the season after reaching the top 10 in Week 6. Oklahoma State then lost some good players to the transfer portal, but I’m never afraid to trust Mike Gundy to get to at least 7-5 in the regular season.
Oklahoma State did a solid job of addressing needs in the portal, has a winnable non-con game against Arizona State, and avoids Texas in Big 12 play. Don’t be surprised if this team is competing for a conference title in November.
Lock in the over for a college football program with four double-digit win seasons since 2015.
NC State Over 6.5 (-145)
Dave Doeren has built the most consistent college football programs in the ACC outside of Clemson at NC State. The Wolfpack have the pieces to compete for a title in a weak power conference.
Brennan Armstrong rejoined offensive coordinator Robert Anae in Raleigh this offseason to replace Devin Leary. These two made magic in 2021 at Virginia when the southpaw passer threw for 4,449 yards in 11 games on 8.9 yards per attempt. Defensive coordinator Tony Gibson is also back and has a unit with experienced pieces.
NC State draws Notre Dame in Week 2, but avoids Florida State and gets Clemson at home (Oct. 28). The Wolfpack should be a betting favorite in numerous games. This is mostly a bet on Armstrong returning to form and teaming up with at least a top-40 defense. That should get NC State to 7-8 wins in the ACC with relative ease.
NC State over 6.5 is one of my favorite plays on the card.
South Alabama Over 8 (-130)
Kane Wommack could be a head coach name to know when the college football coaching carousel gets rolling in November. Why is that? Because he’s leading a legit New Year’s Six contender in year three at South Alabama.
The Jags finished 10-2 last season under Wommack with the only regular season losses coming to UCLA and Troy by a combined five points. The Sun Belt program gets 18 starters back this season to go along with both coordinators. Road trips to Tulane (Sept. 2) and Oklahoma State (Sept. 16) could be challenging, but this is the team to beat in the Sun Belt.
If Wommack’s team can pull one upset in September, this team has a legit shot at double-digit wins. Play the over.
Cincinnati Over 5.5 (+140)
Cincinnati made a somewhat strange hire when it brought in Louisville head coach Scott Satterfield fresh off a blah 25-24 run through four seasons in the ACC, but the makeup of his first Cincinnati roster gives us an idea of what this team could look like.
The Bearcats have some legitimate NFL dudes in the front seven led by defensive tackle Dontay Coleone. Defensive coordinator Bryan Brown had some NFL dudes last season and it led to a top-25 defense. Add in that former Florida and Arizona State quarterback Emory Jones feels like a very good fit for Satterfield’s pistol outside zone scheme with plenty of option looks and you have to think this staff will figure out something on offense.
With five conference home games, there are many winnable opportunities, and this new Big 12 program avoids Texas in year one. This will be a bowl team.
Grab those plus odds and play the over.
Colorado Over 3.5 (+115)
Deion Sanders is taking over a Power Five college football program, and a ton of eyeballs will be on Colorado football in its final season in the Pac-12. With 11 power conference opponents and a brand-new roster at nearly every spot on the two-deep, growing pains are expected for the Buffs.
But there is still enough talent on the roster to get a few wins.
Former Kent State head coach Sean Lewis is running the offense and installing a veer-and-shoot scheme that will use extreme spacing and tempo to create explosive plays. Shedeur Sanders could be a great fit, and there is some legit skill talent to be excited about. Depth on defense will be a concern, but the starting unit could be serviceable as long as injuries do not pile up.
At the end of the day, the Pac-12 is improved, but this is a league where there will be winnable opportunities. Home games against Nebraska (Sept. 9), Colorado State (Sept. 16), Stanford (Oct. 13), and Arizona (Nov. 11) could all be there for the taking. Road trips to Arizona State (Oct. 7) and Washington State (Nov. 17) do not feel super daunting.
I’m riding with Coach Prime. Play the over with plus odds.
Iowa Over 8 (-145)
The race for 301 points is on for offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz as the Hawkeyes must average 25 points per game to save his job. There will be many jokes made about Iowa’s offense throughout the college football season, but it doesn’t change the team that Kirk Ferentz has in Iowa City this season.
Michigan transfer Cade McNamara is a huge upgrade at quarterback, Michigan transfer Erick All and Luke Lachey could be the best tight end duo in college football, Kaleb Johnson is an intriguing young tailback, and wide receiver should be better overall. That should lead to better offensive results.
Meanwhile, there is no reason to think that defensive coordinator Phil Parker won’t produce another top-five unit. Iowa avoids Ohio State and Michigan to go along with a very winnable non-conference slate. A 10-2 season is on the table.
Take the over for the team that should probably be the favorite to win the Big Ten West.
Mississippi State Under 6.5 (-165)
Clark Lea, Derek Mason, Will Muschamp, Barry Odom, Jeremy Pruitt, Kirby Smart, and Mark Stoops were all first-time defensive college football head coaches in the SEC over the last 15 years that struggled to get traction. Each struggled in year one. The list of defensive head coaches to overachieve expectations in that time is a big fat donut in this league.
Zach Arnett has experience with Mississippi State, but this will be a seismic change for the 36-year-old head coach. The Bulldogs are making drastic changes on offense and are losing one of the best play-calling duos in the conference as Arnett is handing play-calling duties off to new defensive coordinator Matt Brock.
Signs point to some growing pains for this new coaching staff. The SEC West will not be kind. Despite having four home non-conference games, I think it’s going to be very difficult for this team to win more than two conference games.
Jump on that under.
Virginia Under 3.5 (-145)
We’re finding value with Virginia Tech, but are fading rival Virginia. Former Clemson offensive coordinator Tony Elliott had a rough first season, and things aren’t looking too much better entering this season. The Hoos lost multiple starters to Power Five teams via the transfer portal, went to the FCS for a quarterback, and play 10 power conference teams plus Sun Belt contender James Madison.
The season will likely start with a blowout loss to Tennessee in Nashville and will end with a home loss to Virginia Tech. A 2-10 season seems very, very possible.
UCF Over 6.5 (-175)
Gus Malzahn is in year three in Orlando as UCF makes the transition to the Big 12 after consecutive nine-win seasons under the former Auburn head coach. The Knights get John Rhys Plumlee back at quarterback, Javon Baker could be one of the best receivers in the conference, and the non-con slate should provide three wins.
UCF avoids Texas and could be a betting favorite in all four conference home games. Established college football head coach with power conference experience, returning starting quarterback, and smart non-con scheduling. That’s a winning recipe in Orlando. The Knights could be a sneaky Big 12 championship game contender in year one as long as Malzahn guides his teams to some close game wins.
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