Kansas State Question of the Week: Does Avery Johnson have a real shot at the Heisman in 2024?

Expectations are high for Kansas State in 2024. A major reason for that is Avery Johnson at quarterback for the Cats. Johnson’s prior accomplishments suggest that something big is coming. One of 2023’s top quarterbacks in the country, a member of the Elite 11, and then a dominant breakout game against Texas Tech last season confirmed what Wildcat fans and national pundits assumed. It all adds up to Johnson having the 12th-best Heisman Trophy odds per FanDuel this upcoming season.

As most know though with Heisman Trophy odds, you can be up there, but some don’t actually have a chance of winning it. Does that ring true for Johnson, or is the Kansas State quarterback capable of winning the Heisman in 2024?

Johnson has a few of the things that are paramount in winning a top award in sports. He has name recognition, he has a look that makes him pop too with his signature long hair. Does it sound silly that stuff like that matters? Yes. But it does. Narrative is an important factor.

One contributing factor to the narrative is having a good team. Since 2010, no Heisman winner has played on a team that achieved less than nine wins in the regular season. Eight of the 12 winners since 2010 (at quarterback) have won at least 12 games in the regular season. Kansas State is in a favorable position, they will likely be the favorite to win almost all of their regular season games in 2024. That bodes well for Johnson.

Another key will be grabbing early momentum in the season. Think back to the starts that local products like Jalon Daniels or Adrian Martinez had in recent years. They had strong starts to the season and provided signature performances that thrusted them toward the top of Heisman candidacy. For one reason or the other, both had their chances fade as the season wore on. Geno Smith at West Virginia might be the best example of a player grabbing the early start needed to win the award, but not having the team to get the job done around him in 2012.

Kansas State will start the season with a premiere game that stands alone on a Friday night against Arizona, a 10-win team from a season ago. A few weeks later fellow Heisman candidate Ollie Gordon will come to Manhattan with Oklahoma State. Then the schedule slows down, with only two games in the final seven games of the season coming against teams in the top half of conference title odds. A chance to rack up wins, pad your stats, and coast with the early momentum you claimed.

What do Heisman-winning stats look like for Johnson? Looking at history back to 2010, Johnson possesses the skills that most of the winners have had. Namely, he is mobile. Seven of the last 12 quarterbacks to win have run for at least 700 yards in a season. The Heisman average during that time frame is 778 rushing yards. In 2023, Johnson ran for almost 300 yards on limited duty.

The passing side could be the biggest on-field question mark for Johnson. It is a label that athletic quarterbacks who can run wild have whether it is deserved or not. Johnson is in the right situation to prove the doubters on his passing game wrong though. Chris Klieman has said repeatedly that he wants the passing game to take a step up this coming season. Matt Wells, Johnson’s new quarterbacks coach, has overseen some great quarterback play in his time. Last year at Oklahoma with Dillon Gabriel, and dating back to his stint as head coach at Utah State where he turned Jordan Love into a future NFL quarterback.

66% of Heisman-winning quarterbacks have reached 4,000 passing yards since 2010. Only four failed to reach that mark. Cam Newton, Johnny Manziel, Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels. The average passing yard total is 4,232 yards.

The one thing that every quarterback had in common though, was how many touchdowns they contributed to their team. The average total touchdowns for a winner was just over 51 touchdowns in a season. The least in a season was Jameis Winston’s 44 in 2013, the most was Joe Burrow’s 65 in 2019. Only four quarterbacks failed to reach 50 touchdowns. Last season Johnson and Will Howard accounted for 45 Kansas State touchdowns.

One other notable stat, interceptions must be limited. The Heisman-winning quarterback averaged less than seven in their winning seasons. That is good news for Johnson, who is yet to throw a pick in 66 collegiate pass attempts. He also showed the advanced understanding of when to force a pass versus when to throw the ball away in a Pop-Tarts Bowl win over NC State.

At the end of the day, it seems like Johnson’s Heisman candidacy might be a year away from taking full form. Johnson will likely meet the touchdown requirement that Heisman winners have seemingly set, he will have the playmaking ability and he is likely to lead a team that should get to 10 wins. All of that will put him in the conversation, but maybe not a real threat to win it. In order to win it, K-State’s passing game will have to take a step forward to match prior winners. Or he will have to use his legs far more often that it seems Kansas State would like, also meaning DJ Giddens and Dylan Edwards don’t take yardage he could claim in the run game.

2024 will put him in front of more people, setting up to carry momentum into a true 2025 Heisman campaign.

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