Kansas State opponent preview: Tulane
Our opponent series for the 2024 Kansas State season continues with game No. 2 versus Tulane. (All stats via bcftoys.com, collegefootballdata.com, and stats.ncaa.org)
LAST FIVE MEETINGS: Kansas State has lost the only two matchups between the two clubs. The Wildcats fell 17-10 at Bill Snyder Family Stadium in 2022 and 20-16 in New Orleans in 1988.
2023 RECORD: 11-3 overall, 8-0 AAC. Lost in conference title game to SMU and fell in Military Bowl to Virginia Tech.
Tulane followed up a 12-2 season (including a win over K-State in Manhattan) with a 11-3 finish, helping head coach Willie Fritz land in Houston to replace Dana Holgorsen. The best two wins for the Green Wave came in AAC play against 10-3 Memphis and 9-4 UTSA.
Seven of their wins came against teams that finished outside the top 100 in the F+ rankings.
COACH: Jon Sumrall is in his first year at Tulane after taking Troy to a 23-4 record the last two seasons with a Sun Belt title. Sumrall’s Troy Trojans lost 42-13 to Kansas State last season in Manhattan.
2023 REVIEW: The Green Wave finished the 2023 season just outside the Top 25 in the polls, receiving votes in the AP Poll (No. 27) and the Coaches Poll (No. 28). Tulane finished No. 55 in the F+ ranking with the No. 69 offense, No. 41 defense and No. 46 special teams.
Their defense was top 20 against the run, ranking No. 22 in expected points added and No. 19 in success rate allowed, though teams only ran the ball against the Green Wave 43 percent of the time. The scoring defense finished in the top 25 but largely due to a slow pace as they were No. 36 in points per drive allowed.
That should at lest test Avery Johnson and K-State to an extent out of the gate.
The offensive strength was a pass success rate and passing efficiency in the top 30, though the offense was only No. 49 in points per drive. The rush offense finished outside the top 100 in the major efficiency stats while running the ball 56 percent of the time.
The special teams phase was top 20 in kickoff coverage and ranked No. 43 overall.
2024 PROJECTION: Tulane is picked to finish second or third in the American Athletic Conference in most 2024 preseason polls. The coaching change has contributed to major turnover as Tulane is No. 96 in returning production. That includes No. 90 on offense and No. 97 on defense.
Eight of 11 defensive starters are gone, along with a very good quarterback, the top three receivers and the top two offensive linemen. Tulane is projected to be No. 54 by Athlon, No. 60 by Kelley Ford and No. 65 in Connelly’s SP+ preseason ranking.
KEY OFFENSIVE PLAYERS
RB Makhi Hughes: He earned a first team All-Sun Belt choice last season and was the Sun Belt Newcomer of the Year in his redshirt freshman season. He gained 1,378 yards and over five yards per carry, averaging nearly 100 yards per game along with seven touchdowns.
QB Ty Thompson: The former five-star, On3 Industry-Ranked top 50 recruit spent three seasons at Oregon before transferring to Tulane this offseason. The No. 2 dual threat quarterback in his class, Thompson threw for 297 yards while completing 77 percent of his passes for four touchdowns last year in limited action for the Ducks. He’s talented enough to challenge Kansas State.
WR Mario Williams: As another former top 50 On3 Industry-Ranked high school recruit, the four-star receiver played one season at Oklahoma before spending the past two years at USC. Williams has 104 catches, 1,316 yards and 11 touchdowns in 36 games as a Sooner and Trojan.
WR Yulkeith Brown: Brown is the leading returning receiver after transferring from Texas A&M. He had 33 catches for 391 yards and a pair of scores last season.
KEY DEFENSIVE PLAYERS
DL Patrick Jenkins: Jenkins earned first team All-Sun Belt last season with 13 sacks and 5.5 tackles for loss and is the leading returner in havoc for the Green Wave. He’ll be a handful for the K-State offensive line.
DL Kameron Hamilton: Hamilton was a second team All-Sun Belt player with seven tackles for loss and four sacks last season.
LB Jesus Machado: Machado tallied 98 tackles last season, including 56 solos to go along with four tackles for loss and an interception in making second team All-Sun Belt.
LB Tyler Grubbs: Grubbs was second on the team with 85 tackles, 57 of them solo, recorded eight tackles for loss and three sacks last year as an All-Sun Belt third team pick.
KANSAS STATE WINS IF…
They handle the Group of Five road environment against a solid Tulane team with a lot of new faces. The Green Wave have talented players on the offensive side of the ball for Kansas State to worry about, but most are unproven at this level.
K-STATE LOSES IF…
Ty Thompson and Mario Williams display their projected talents out of high school to go along with talented running back Makhi Hughes making things tough on the K-State defense in week two.
Fan’s Prediction: Kansas State 30, Tulane 17
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